1. Attachments are working again! Check out this thread for more details and to report any other bugs.

Energy-efficient californians

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by chogan, Feb 23, 2007.

  1. chogan

    chogan New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2006
    590
    0
    0
    Location:
    Vienna, VA
    I grudingly pay the NY Times annual fee solely so that I may read Paul Krugman's columns. Today's column was on topic for this forum. I'll try to give the gist of it without violating copyright, as this is a subscription-only service. This obviously trashes the clarity of his writing, but the key points are:

    " ... climate change skeptics seem to be making a seamless transition from denial to fatalism ... that ... any serious attempt to curb greenhouse gas emissions is ... impossible."

    ...

    But the assumption is false. Let me tell you about a real-world counterexample: ... California.

    There’s nothing heroic about California’s energy policy ... a series of conservation measures ... the kind of drab, colorless stuff that excites only real policy wonks. Yet the cumulative effect has been impressive ...

    ...

    The energy divergence between California and the rest of the United States dates from the 1970s. ...
    In California, by contrast, the state continued to push policies designed to encourage conservation, especially of electricity. And these policies worked.

    People in California have always used a bit less energy ... But the difference has grown much larger since the 1970s. Today, the average Californian uses about a third less total energy than the average American, uses less than 60 percent as much electricity, and is responsible for emitting only about 55 percent as much carbon dioxide."

    ...

    ...California’s experience shows that serious conservation is a lot less disruptive, imposes much less of a burden, than the skeptics would have it. "

    End of quote.

    I just want to make four points regarding this.

    First, to me, as an economist, this illustrates the contrast between a serious economist economist (Paul Krugman), who first appeals to existing data to get a handle on what may or may not be feasible, before speculating on the future, compared to a hack economist (Robert J Samuelson, cited in this thread a few days back), who simply skips the data in favor of making doomsay projections ("fatalism" as above). I mean, believe whom you want, but I vastly prefer a study of the hard, available data.

    Second, not cited, Krugman correctly attributed the 2000-1 California energy crisis to fraud by Enron and others. I think that's been firmly established. So, that's a non-issue.

    Third, the timescale is three decades. All the more reason to start now.

    Fourth, I wonder if there are any credible studies of whether these standard hurt or helped California's prosperity over this period? I'm not aware of any but I haven't exactly looked hard, and clearly it would be hard if not impossible to measure that sort of behavioral impact. Still, at first blush, it doesn't seem to have impoverished the state.
     
  2. Mirza

    Mirza New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2004
    898
    0
    0
    If I remember correctly, it's the 6th largest economy in the world.
     
  3. burritos

    burritos Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2006
    4,946
    252
    0
    Location:
    California
    Vehicle:
    2006 Prius
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(chogan @ Feb 23 2007, 07:48 AM) [snapback]395101[/snapback]</div>
    Do the same people who believe in wmds also believe(or hope) that california will fall into the sea?
     
  4. tripp

    tripp Which it's a 'ybrid, ain't it?

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2005
    4,717
    79
    0
    Location:
    Denver, CO
    Vehicle:
    2005 Prius
    Chogan,

    I think it really highlights the character traits of these people. Either way they look at it, they are resistant to change. It's the change that's really the issue. Denial allows them to continue with business as usual. Fatalism does the same. For them, I think they should take stock in FDR's word: "We have nothing to fear but fear itself". The arguments aren't ration (though they're very human) because the fear isn't either. But humans are emotional, not rational creatures, so the changes will have to come slower than I would like them to. However, the game is clearly changing. The denial is no longer tenable so the rest of us will just have to ensure that the fatalism isn't justified.
     
  5. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2005
    2,492
    245
    0
    Location:
    WA
    Vehicle:
    2005 Prius
    Don't know if it said or not, but I would be interested if the article went into the what/whys? I.e., why is CA more efficient? What specific policies?

    As a long-time resident but a transplant from another state, I can't think of any specific policies that immediately come to mind that make me as an individual more efficient as a Californian than I was elsewhere.

    I suspect the policies have more to do with mandates imposed on business than on individuals. And that more importantly, Californians consume substantially less energy than others because of a favorable climate.

    Sorry to rain on the parade, I'm just not so sure the average Californian really lives that much differently than anybody else in terms of energy efficient lifestyle habits. But I'll accept a correction if there is good evidence to support it of which I am not aware.
     
  6. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2005
    2,492
    245
    0
    Location:
    WA
    Vehicle:
    2005 Prius
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(tripp @ Feb 23 2007, 02:12 PM) [snapback]395479[/snapback]</div>
    Hey Tripp -

    You may be right in some cases - but I think skepticism is often healthy, not just "irrational". In fact, I would argue skepticism has injected a much greater degree of precision and realism into the discussion of climate change, in particular. And as climate change science has steadily improved I find it completely logical and rational for the discussion to move from "is this a problem" to "how much of a problem is this" and "how much of it can we control" and "what approaches do we use to control it".

    You are right, some people may use this as a shield for business as usual but frankly, the "the sky is falling down" approach promulgated by many Global Warming promoters is irrational in its own right.

    A perfect "for instance" -- the environmental lobby's irrational rejection of widespread use of nuclear power as a means for reducing CO2 emissions - even as many scientists, policy-makers and economists embrace it.

    Logic suggests that socially attainable behavior change alone will never be sufficient / fast enough to achieve the orders of magnitude reductions in CO2 apparently necessary to completely mitigate anthropogenic climate change. The sooner the environmental lobby pulls their collective heads out of the sand and realizes this, the better.
     
  7. tripp

    tripp Which it's a 'ybrid, ain't it?

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2005
    4,717
    79
    0
    Location:
    Denver, CO
    Vehicle:
    2005 Prius
    Tim,

    Skepticism is a very GOOD thing. I completely agree that the chicken little approach is not useful, in fact it's detrimental. However, the skepticism put forward by the crowd in question is entirely emotion based and not founded in science or logic. The smooth transition from denial to "it's too late" is a clear indication of this.

    I agree that the nuclear should option should be explored and pursued in conjunction with a variety of equally (or more) important measures. I doubt we have the ability of be energy independent if we're heavily reliant on uranium/plutonium. Also, nuclear power uses a tremendous amount of water (at least the current techs do) so it may not be practical on a large scale in a lot of areas of the west going forward.

    With that said, a lot of people are deeply suspicious of nuclear power because of a variety of issues with business and the environment going back several decades. It's really a trust issue. Personally, I think we can overcome that and move on. The French appear to have a solid record and they get ~75% of their power from nuclear. Our record is also pretty good (except the mining issues from the past in Utah). Safer mining techniques and continuing research into safer more efficient reactors can mitigate many of these issues.

    As for CA, I don't know. I know that Concord is hot as hell, but not very cold. Higher electricity rates possibly? It doesn't sound like electricity is cheap in CA.
     
  8. TimBikes

    TimBikes New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2005
    2,492
    245
    0
    Location:
    WA
    Vehicle:
    2005 Prius
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(tripp @ Feb 27 2007, 12:58 PM) [snapback]397419[/snapback]</div>
    Fair enough Tripp - but emotions run strong on both sides of the issue and am simply arguing the "sky is falling down" is not founded in science or logic either.

    As for the electric rates, yes - HIGH in CA vs. other states which obviously mitigates the demand side. But again, this has little to do with our personal decisions here. I hope we Californian's can avoid patting ourselves on the back for our superior energy habits when in fact, as I mentioned, I doubt they are really any better than those in the rest of the country.
     
  9. tripp

    tripp Which it's a 'ybrid, ain't it?

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2005
    4,717
    79
    0
    Location:
    Denver, CO
    Vehicle:
    2005 Prius
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(TimBikes @ Feb 27 2007, 02:13 PM) [snapback]397426[/snapback]</div>
    Well, they may not be voluntary but it would appear that they exist (the habits and corresponding energy consumption reductions). I suppose that you could compare CA per capita energy consumption with states with similar climate regimes (or cut the state into regions and compare those regions to other states).