Ethanol the right way?

This sounds like a good plan. There are many possibilities for this type of integrated facility, such as biomass power plants that use waste heat for home or plant heating. We need more thinking along this line.

Tom

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(tripp @ Apr 23 2007, 12:40 PM) [snapback]428550[/snapback]</div>

Here's the problem with Ethanol. Actually a few of them, in order of most importance.

1) The more Ethanol becomes a popular fuel source the more the price of all the base products will go up. What I mean by base products are the things that we already buy and eat that they will be using to make Ethanol from.

Supply and demand. Supply will not go up nearly as much as demand. So what appears to be low cost now will continue to go up as demand does. You WILL be paying more for Ethanol than gas.

2) Distribution. The same companies that supply you with gas now will buy the companies that make and distribute Ethanol. See #1.

2b) I'm a junk food eating, stuff buying nerd. I'm not a hippie environmentalist.

With that said. If you really want to get ahead long term (and I haven't done this yet), you need to create a source of power that you yourself create and control. The best thing now is solar panels for your house and moderately modifying how you consume power.

Even in Washington State (Seattle area) where I live you can produce more electricity than you consume unless you consume a lot. You can either sell your excess generated electricity back to the power company (which currently HAS to buy it from you) or store it in batteries for evening and night use and charge up an electric vehicle.

I realize that electric vehicles are not yet good for long distance trips. At least not yet. They are figuring out ways to create batteries with nanotubes which can fully charge up in minutes as compared to hours and release power back out just as fast or per demand. There are test vehicles currently being driven with this new battery technology. They claim it is faster to recharge these batteries than it is to fill up a gas tank with gas.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(OlsonBW @ Apr 23 2007, 03:07 PM) [snapback]428679[/snapback]</div>

I think your understanding of market forces is off a bit. The more demand there is, the more people will try to supply that demand. The only time that market forces drive prices up overall is when there is a limited supply that cannot expand. If the supply can expand, the price will fluctuate with the availability of the goods, with an overall trend down in real dollars.

That's why the higher demand for computers see fully featured entry-level computers at under $1,000. We paid over $5,000 for an IBM XT when it came out (and that 20mb full height disk drive was $1000 of it).

Ethanol will become cheaper as technology improves, especially if someone is able to solve the cellulose ethanol problem (i.e., using switchgrass and other cellulose sources).

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(OlsonBW @ Apr 23 2007, 04:07 PM) [snapback]428679[/snapback]</div>

And the good news is that the vast majority of our trips are NOT long distance. But I digress..

 

Various alternative fuels will be used for their own niche. It's the only solution we've got.
Biodeiesel will be (and already is used for) trucking, farming, and heavy equipment where batteries make no sense.
Ethanol will be used more in the midwest and in rural areas where people drive longer distances, less frequently.
EV's will be used in all major cities and up and down the coasts where population density is high and the range required is much less. Battery cost will skyrocket as people switch over and people will reluctantly opt to pay half the cost for half the range, since those in cities rarely go further than 50 miles, anyways.
Heck, a 20 mile range would fill 90% of my needs.

 

FWIW, I would happily pay more for a fuel source that was 100% produced in the US. I would be even happier to not need to give a single dollar to a country that has a history of trying to kill Americans.

Of course, I'd also like to not give a dollar to an oil company that is non-competitive, too...