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Everest glaciers

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, Jun 4, 2015.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: TC - Abstract - Snowfall in the Himalayas: an uncertain future from a little-known past

    Abstract. Snow and ice provide large amounts of meltwater to the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. This study combines present-day observations and reanalysis data with climate model projections to estimate the amount of snow falling over the basins today and in the last decades of the 21st century. Estimates of present-day snowfall based on a combination of temperature and precipitation from reanalysis data and observations vary by factors of 2–4. The spread is large, not just between the reanalysis and the observations but also between the different observational data sets. With the strongest anthropogenic forcing scenario (RCP8.5), the climate models project reductions in annual snowfall by 30–50% in the Indus Basin, 50–60% in the Ganges Basin and 50–70% in the Brahmaputra Basin by 2071–2100. The reduction is due to increasing temperatures, as the mean of the models show constant or increasing precipitation throughout the year in most of the region. With the strongest anthropogenic forcing scenario, the mean elevation where rain changes to snow – the rain/snow line – creeps upward by 400–900 m, in most of the region by 700–900 meters. The largest relative change in snowfall is seen in the upper westernmost sub-basins of the Brahmaputra. With the strongest forcing scenario, most of this region will have temperatures above freezing, especially in the summer. The projected reduction in annual snowfall is 65–75%. In the upper Indus, the effect of a warmer climate on snowfall is less extreme, as most of the terrain is high enough to have temperatures sufficiently far below freezing today. A 20–40% reduction in annual snowfall is projected.​

    Looks like it'll be a lot easier to climb Mt. Everest . . . something to add to one's bucket list.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Jun 4, 2015
  2. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Time to climb everest is in the past.
    Nepal’s earthquake and why Mount Everest should be closed — permanently - The Washington Post
    Oh yeah and the last 2 years have been the deadliest. Don't go if you aren't experienced enough to do it, and even then don't leave it a garbage dump.

    My guess is ghg may increase the body count.
     
    #2 austingreen, Jun 4, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2015
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  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Perhaps the admission charge to climb Mt. Everest should be bringing some 'x kg' of debris from previous climbs down.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #3 bwilson4web, Jun 4, 2015
  4. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Is not the Himalayas one of the few things that the IPCC got wrong, in predicting severe local warming ?
     
    #4 SageBrush, Jun 4, 2015
  5. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Sorry to be a killjoy, but at first appearance, this seems to suggest increased precipitation to drive the flow through the Khombu Icefall (between Base Camp and Camp 1 on the most popular route), while the snow line won't be rising high enough to melt that supply before it arrives at the Fall. Am I reading this right?

    If so, Everest will not be going onto my bucket list. Most of the recent fatalities have been in or just below there.

    Maybe I'll just go trekking in the region, and possibly visit Base Camp. But no higher than that.
     
    #5 fuzzy1, Jun 5, 2015
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  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    #6 bwilson4web, Jun 5, 2015
  7. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    The other few things the IPCC got wrong was their climate model predictions of warming.
     
    #7 mojo, Jun 5, 2015
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    If all we knew of Himalayan glaciers was the incorrect 2035 iceout statement, that would be pretty bad. However this is not the case. The large areas of rapid loss, and the smaller areas of current accretion are pretty well mapped.

    Just as interesting to me, but less well studied. Ice often shields underlying surfaces from erosion. Take off 'the cover' and many things change. Not just the quantity and timing of water supply.
     
    #8 tochatihu, Jun 5, 2015
  9. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    For the Himalayas in general, you will make grave mistakes analyzing glacier growth and melt without looking at grace satellite information. This information is fairly new, and without it most estimates were mainly speculation. From grace we have learned antartic ice is melting faster than we had thought, and hymalayan ices slower. I hope its replacement will bring us more information.
    GRACE Fact Sheet : Feature Articles

    Everest and K2 are a special cases. Because they are the highest peaks people want to climb and photograph them. We have a wealth of information about storms, glaciers, melt. This site should give you some good videos and information on Everest and the shrinking glacier. There are 90 year old photographs to compare to today.
    GlacierWorks: Everest

    I think the whole attitude towards climbing Mount Everest has become rather horrifying. The people just want to get to the top. They don't give a damn for anybody else who may be in distress and it doesn't impress me at all that they leave someone lying under a rock to die. - Edmund Hillary
     
    #9 austingreen, Jun 6, 2015
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