Expected battery life - 2019 Model 3

Using recorded data of my 2019 Model 3 Standard Range Plus, here is the projected battery life to 70% capacity, the value that Tesla uses for a warranty battery replacement. I am beyond warranty so I will pay about $13,000 to replace it:

• Six years, 150,000 miles on the original battery (2170 cells)
• Tesla battery test report 77%, 70% is Tesla threshold
• Replacement sometime in 2025
  • $13,000 estimate

I have always known the battery would age and this is well within my expectations. Other parts age too like front end suspension and steering parts. Some minor paint scratches and other odds and ends, the car still meets my requirements for an exceptionally efficient ride, ~$2.50/100 miles City and ~$7.00/100 miles Highway.

With six years of experience, I also know how to extend the next battery service life. Since I am 75 years old, it should be good until I am 82 or older. Looking forward to the future.

Bob Wilson

 

I only have this for the past year from the Tesla App:

• Home - max 32 A, 7.4 kW
  • $0.12/kWh
• Supercharger - peak 178 kW with a triangular charge curve
  • $0.36-38/kWh
• Other - typically free, 30-32 A, L2 chargers, usually free at motels and shopping
• Consumption rates
  • City 4.5-5.1 mi/kWh
  • Highway ~4.0 mi/kWh
  • EPA rating 25 kWh/100 mi

There was a stuck valve in the battery, motor, and cabin coolant loop that caused the fans to run excessively high at Superchargers the last two years. Recent software updates let me see the "service errors' and I had the valve assembly replaced. That allowed me to run the built-in battery test that reported 77% capacity. I suspect inadequate thermal management may have accelerated the expected, battery degradation.

Bob Wilson

 

My understanding is it is a battery cell assembly replacement and they handle the recycling. Scheduled for May 5th, I plan to sleep over and get the car back on Tuesday.

Teslas new cars are using 4860s.I will be getting the last production, 2170 cells which will probably the best of all their production.

Perhaps some may remember I replaced my 2003 Prius traction pack many years ago.

Bob Wilson

 

Now if we can just find someone who claims the old packs are in a landfill. I still have a shovel.

Bob Wilson

 

Not technically. I left that engineering to the contractor. However, they confirmed what my outreach discovered. The Tesla solar roof teams are slow and weak to respond. My requirements were:

• Preserve natural gas fired emergency generator for extended outages (like the 4 day 6 hour on in 2011.)
• Never give any electrons to the Grid if it can be helped
  • The battery buffer will not dump electrons into the grid

Overall, I like that they used micro-inverters that generate split-phase, 240 VAC at each panel. This avoids having a single point inverter failure taking out the whole system. With 16 panels, losing one still gives 15/16 = 93.8% output while waiting for the repair crew. This is where their experience paid off.

Bob Wilson

 

That is what I'd figured but realize my battery metrics were started close to a year after I got the car. The first 8-9 months, there is no data and the car was rated at 240 miles that I verified when I first got it.

We were all so ignorant back then.

Bob Wilson

 

It depends upon how you calculate. I prefer to separate the CAPITAL from OPERATIONAL and use operational metrics for the cost per mile and can be calculated from the EPA metrics:

My utility company charges $0.12/kWh so for 100 miles and I have 150,000 miles on mine:

• $2.76 - Lucid
  • $4,140 for 150,000 mi
• $2.88 - Ioniq 6
  • $4,320
• $3.00 - 2025 Model 3
  • $4,500
• $3.00 - 2019 Model 3 (mine)
  • $4,500

CAPITAL is more difficult because of variables such as procurement, depreciation, and salvage. Many of these can be estimated and I don't fault those who try. Just sometimes it can lead to declaring the most affordable car is a used Yugo.. You'll have to do that on your own as it has little to not impact on my practices. Let me share my numbers:

• $22,000 - purchase price
• $8,500 - Tesla offered trade-in
• $6,000 - Full Self Driving, replacement cost is $8,000
• $1,200 - rock impact protection film
• $2,000 - lighter rims, longer lasting tires, and pizza pan wheel covers
• $400 - 2" receiver hitch, a $1,200 option on the Model Y

So I'm treating the traction battery like tires and windshield wipers . . . just another part that wears out. Spending $13,000 is cheaper than buying a new EV and walking away from what I've got in my car.

Bob Wilson

 

We are in a race to see which one of us stops moving first. I'm 75 and the car is 6 years old.

No argument as typical cost-of-ownership models leave a lot to be desired. They have to make simplifying assumptions that don't universally apply. So in my case:

• Insurance - liability only and own two cars. If one breaks, use the other until a second can be procured.
• Tags - an extra $250 each, the EV "hippy tax."
• Maintenance - suspension, tires, windshield wipers, the common stuff run about equal.
• Engine maintenance - no oil changes, air filter, PVC valve, spark plugs, sealable catalytic convert, rustable muffler, manifold, and pipes.
• Fuel - around town, free from my solar roof. On the highway, parity with a 40 MPG ICE vehicle.

Bob Wilson

 

Thanks to my Prius experience, I recognized they were pony tires. So when they wore out, I replaced them with 60,000 mile, light truck tires and they are still going strong.

Bob Wilson