Featured Fewer autos, more miles, and more oil 2040

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Nov 14, 2017 at 7:51 PM.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    Every now and then I come across a study that on the face of it makes me laugh:

    Source: Fewer Autos Will Drive More and Oil Use Will Rise by 2040 | TheDetroitBureau.com

    The study reveals auto sales are going to decline steadily between now and 2040, especially in large markets such as the United States, China and India, the number of miles driven will continue to rise. Perhaps just as surprising, more than 80% of those miles will be traveled in vehicles using some form of gasoline- or diesel-powered vehicles.

    Researchers predict that annual sales of privately owned vehicles in the United States, Europe, China and India will decline from 67 million vehicles annually to 54 million in 2040. However, the number of miles traveled globally will rise 65% to around 11 billion miles a year.

    “A great ‘automotive paradox’—where more travel via car than ever, but fewer cars will be needed by individuals—will be a defining quality of the new automotive future,” said Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit vice chairman and project chairman.

    “The shift is just beginning. By 2040, the changes in transportation will be accelerating in a way that will be visible on roads and highways around the world. The pace and degree of this dynamic shift will have significant implications for industry, for public transportation systems and for how people get to work and live their lives – and spend their money on transport.”

    [​IMG]

    Because of this increase, the demand for petroleum is expected to rise from the 98 million barrels a day currently used to 115 million barrels a day in 2040. This means that the push for EVs and other non-combustion-engine-powered vehicles may not have the impact expected.
    . . .

    I'll have to get the original report since a report about a report can be misleading. But on the face of it, LOL!

    Bob Wilson
     
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    the great thing about predicting the distant future is that you're retired before anyone catches on.;)
     
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    Hey, you've got something!

    We're old enough we can write papers predicting the future after we're dead and gone. <GRINS>

    Bob Wilson
     
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  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i would, but who would read them?
     
  5. jdenenberg

    jdenenberg EE Professor

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    When I was a child, fusion energy was predicted to be 20 years away.
    When I was in college, fusion energy was predicted to be 20 years away.
    Now I'm of retirement age and fusion energy is predicted to be 20 years away.

    Moral, a prediction of twenty years is saying it may never happen.

    JeffD

    ps: Hydrogen fueled cars are twenty years away.
     
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i was just about to type h______ when i saw your ps.:p
     
  7. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Well we do have 2 trends that seem true. Auto sales deep into the future will be lower and because of rising population vmt will be higher. A sales decline is likely because of the cost and reliability of new cars and lack of parking. If you summon a self driving ride share, you don't need a taxi, or taxi driver, but the car may actually travel further than a personal one as it needs to get to you from the last person, and from you to the next person.

    I don't think the predictions on future vehicles is that far off either. It is certainly better than the lutz crazy talk of no more engines.
    They are predicting 19% BEV or other non oil based vehicle in 2040, with a lot of engines in phevs and hybrids. That's 23 years from now. Think of it this way. Even at $100/kwh for a battery pack, a 300 mile bev likely needs 80 kwh, or $8000 worth of pack. Instead if you make a small engine for a range extender (I'm thinking 1.2L 3 cylinder turbo charged (or supercharged, or most likely electrically turbo/super charged) by then will probably efficiently put out 110 hp). If you make it a 100 mile electric phev, that is probably $2700 worth of batteries and $5000 worth of engine and pollution control, that can quickly refuel at all the gas stations. Of course no one knows real costs out in 2040, but there is likely a phev mix that makes more sense than a long range bev.

    My crititique would not be against 81% of cars in 2040 having engines with a mix hybrids, phevs, and some long distance or inexpensive cars not having big batteries at all. Mazda's skyactiv-x spark controlled compression ignition (strange name) seems, at least from the automotive press driving prototypes, to be another step to improving the old gasoline/alcohol engine. I simply think pumping oil from the ground in 2040 will be expensive enough that other liquid fuels like methanol may be powering a significant part of the fleet making 2040 past peak oil demand. Non-transportation needs probably means lubrication, plastics, and power generation. I would think if oil is expensive enough these will shift to other things.
     
    #7 austingreen, Nov 15, 2017 at 9:29 AM
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2017 at 9:46 AM
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  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Just to add - Electric cars could cut oil demand roughly equal to Iran's output
    This has electric vehicles growing to 30% in 2040, and oil demand dropping 9 million barrels a day to 88 million barrels a day versus IHS Markit's estimate of growing to 115 million barrels a day. Now this 30% can't be compared to the 19% because one includes phevs and fcv and the other doesn't - the IHS Markit chart on electric vehicles likely including PHEVs and fcv shows about 30% so they are in agreement. The gasoline and oil chart from IHS Markit chart, it seems that it has some kind of bizarre problem. It has diesel consumption falling dramatically and gasoline plus diesel lower than today. The chart shows a significant drop for light vehicle consumption of oil, I have severe doubts that if this happens as in the charts, other oil usage would push consumption so high.

    Of course both reports are bad news if you think ghg production from transportation will drop fast. Here in the Barclays projections ghg from oil used in transportation only drops 9%, and this is partially offset from other fuels power plug-ins.
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web i3 and Prime

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    Having both a BMW i3-REx and Prius Prime, I prefer the smaller sized, range extended engine car even though the Prius is more efficient under gas power, 56 MPG vs 40 MPG. The BMW engine does not appear to be as optimized as it could be.
    • 25/29 = 86% :: comparison of Prius kWh/100 mi vs BMW i3-REx
    • 1.9/2.6 = 73% :: comparison of Prius gal/100 mi vs BMW i3-REx
    • ~13% lower BMW i3-REx efficiency on gas as the drag effects are the same in electric or gas
    By inspection, the BMW engine lacks cooled exhaust recirculation and I have yet to find reports of Atkinson cycle. It uses premium but the expansion ratio is not as high as the Prius. So I can see improvements in the engine-generator set reducing gas usage. Fortunately, 80-90% of my miles are EV so the lost, BMW engine-generator efficiency is not a big economic impact ... but I would like the 34 hp, engine-generator set to be more efficient.

    What bothered me about the report is 'lower vehicle sales' and 'higher oil consumption.' This suggests the fewer cars are burning a lot more fuel per vehicle. That only works if the cars are going much greater distances and/or less efficient.

    As for the vehicle mix, I think the winner is a plug-in hybrid with an advanced power-generator set. The battery need only be sized to handle the daily commute tasks. I can also see multiple paths to advanced power-generator sets using today's technology.

    Going back to the article, I still see car sales increasing over time due to greater populations with higher standards of living. However, fossil fuels will not grow at the same rate as more efficient vehicles join the vehicle fleets.

    Bob Wilson
     
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