Future sea-level projections

I prefer to share the source paper versus a popular press summary. Given I was born in 1949, there is a chance I may live to 2049, age 99 (*), long enough to say, "See, I told you!"

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36051-9

Climate-forced, offline ice-sheet model simulations have been used extensively in assessing how much ice-sheets can contribute to future global sea-level rise. Typically, these model projections do not account for the two-way interactions between ice-sheets and climate. To quantify the impact of ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, here we conduct greenhouse warming simulations with a coupled global climate-ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity. Following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-1.9, 2-4.5, 5-8.5 emission scenarios, the model simulations ice-sheet contributions to global sea-level rise by 2150 of 0.2 ± 0.01, 0.5 ± 0.01 and 1.4 ± 0.1 m, respectively. Antarctic ocean-ice-sheet-ice-shelf interactions enhance future subsurface basal melting, while freshwater-induced atmospheric cooling reduces surface melting and iceberg calving. The combined effect is likely to decelerate global sea-level rise contributions from Antarctica relative to the uncoupled climate-forced ice-sheet model configuration. Our results demonstrate that estimates of future sea-level rise fundamentally depend on the complex interactions between ice-sheets, icebergs, ocean and the atmosphere.​

. . .



. . .

Methods
The coupled climate-ice-sheet-ice-shelf-iceberg model LOVECLIP26 is based on the earth-system climate model LOVECLIM27 and the Penn State University Ice-Sheet/Shelf model (PSUIM)5,28,29. Here we review its main components, the coupling algorithm, experimental setup, and highlight modeling differences to previous studies.
. . .​

Cite this article
Park, JY., Schloesser, F., Timmermann, A. et al. Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model. Nat Commun 14, 636 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36051-9

• Received29 April 2022
• Accepted12 January 2023
• Published14 February 2023
• DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36051-9

​

I hope to share shots of Tequila at climate skeptic grave sites filtered by my kidneys.

Bob Wilson

* - The first year of my life, my age was expressed in months, as a fraction of a year. I won't properly be 100 until December 11, 2050.