Global cyclones

Hurricanes, y'know? The big twirly things that batter susceptible coasts with wind, rain, and tidal surges. Both mojo and I have previously sent you to

WeatherBELL Models | Premium Weather Maps

He because the North Atlantic has been quiet in recent years, and me because globally, there is no trend.

Got that? no global trend. As air and sea have been warming for 4+ decades (data elsewhere), no big bump in these things. Recent individual storms have laid waste to some places, but that is just the luck of the draw. Cyclones (seem to) have no ability to target high-value spots.

I mention this for two reasons, There is no short-term trend. The North Atlantic (apparently of most concern at PC) has been quiet, and if we get big El Nino that will continue. Yay!

Mostly, I want to say that Maue is doing good work, and if you have spare change, send it to him. Second I wish to suggest that if global warming gets bad in near future, it seems unlikely that hurricanes will be the first biggest thing. See to your crop production and coastlines, maybe some temperature extremes, but let the hurricanes flail away over oceans (as they mostly do).

One big one could undo Miami, but it will be the luck of the draw, not the energy we have added to the system so far..

 

A new, large El nino will come? How will cyclones change across all the oceans? Maue is tracking this better than anyone ( I think).

If things get too frisky, and Maue drops the ball, I will stop asking y'all to send him money.

 

The strongest N Pacific typhoon of the season (so far) is crossing Taiwan. It is no match for Haiyan in the Phillipines that some will recall from earlier discussions.

A half meter of rain and 30 m/s average winds are the highest recorded. Rainfall totals will increase but the wind loading will not (in Taiwan). This island is no stranger to typhoons, and doubtful that this one will be much of a killer. What is interesting about Taiwan forests is, after so much experience with such events, they are just puny things. It's not even worth putting up a fight...

Anyway, coastal mainland China gets it next which will mostly be rain. Taiwan is a pretty good storm disrupter and thus performs an (unpaid) service to the mainland. Ecosystem services are like that. Almost nobody counts them.

Anyway, lest you get the impression that hurricanes are a thing of the past, the Pacific Ocean keeps churning along. North Atlantic (as we are often reminded) continues its multi-year vacation.

Pacific Ocean - the most inappropriately named geographical feature on earth

 

I think the go-to guys (persons) in this area are

Physical Oceanography Division - NOAA/AOML TCHP

and lots of plotting options are presented, and one step higher in the file structure.

Before anything else, may we celebrate that US NOAA is doing this? Nobody else on earth is even trying. Funds available have still not been pinched.

Typhoon-spawning ocean areas have been flat in the past decade, or down (N Atl). Even though SST and OHC have increased. This is a matter of great interest, because one well-aimed event can cost $100 billions.

Typhoons are not just sea-surface energy available, they are from precursor strong low pressure 'swirls' and the absence of mid-tropo wind shear. When there is El Nino, N Atl is calmed by the latter two, but see Hugo in 1998. I do not think that climate models of today are fit for this purpose.

But neither do I think that Miami, etc., are wise to build big in the 'firing line'. More storms will come. Betcha.

C. Columbus had serious problems with N. Atl. hurricanes, even during what we'd call the Little Ice Age.Weird, eh?

 

FWIW, I'd like to say that mesoscale models of Soudelor have been extremely accurate. We are getting more accurate at this, at the 100-hr time scale.

 

You are polar, I am tropical. Irreconciliable. I think we should call the marriage off

 

Final @6
When the eye makes landfall in the mainland coast, half of the 'intake zone' is already over land. This means friction and much reduced water supply. Interesting winds rarely penetrate 50 km inland. Soudelor will make half meter of rain in some areas, 300 km inland.

You just can't keep a (water driven) cyclone together over land. Tornadoes do better over land. They are driven by air currents, vorticity more or less. Tornadoes from above, hurricanes from below.

 

Hurricane Hilda looks like a 'maybe' for Hawaii next Friday

Hurricane Hilda Products
Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Track Forecasts

Lots of model disagreement in track forests (more than usual I think)

 

Local interested parties know by now that Hilda dissipated before Hawaii. TS Danny in the N Atlantic might give a little something to Puerto Rico, but not very much.