Global warming could limit effect of hurricanes

It's interesting, too bad they didn't provide more depth in the article (not the JGPL article, but the blog entry). So if wind shear has been increasing I would be interested to see how 2005 compares to other years. This year is also forecast to be active, but we won't know until DEC just how active it was.

That's a two way street.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Marlin @ Apr 18 2007, 01:54 PM) [snapback]425485[/snapback]</div>

The issue of "settled science" usually refers to the consensus that anthrogenic global warming is taking place, a finding not at all disputed by the paper in question, as evident in the first line of its abstract:

To help understand possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on hurricane activity, we assess model-projected changes in large-scale environmental factors tied to variations in hurricane statistics. This study focuses on vertical wind shear (Vs) over the tropical Atlantic during hurricane season, the increase of which has been historically associated with diminished hurricane activity and intensity. A suite of state-of-the-art global climate model experiments is used to project changes in Vs over the 21st century. Substantial increases in tropical Atlantic and East Pacific shear are robust features of these experiments, and are shown to be connected to the model-projected decrease in the Pacific Walker circulation. The relative changes in shear are found to be comparable to those of other large-scale environmental parameters associated with Atlantic hurricane activity. The influence of these Vs changes should be incorporated into projections of long-term hurricane activity.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028905.shtml

While there might be a perceived media consensus regarding global warming leading to increased hurricane strength, the science of such forecasts seems reasonably contentious, with one well-respected researcher whose name I now forget saying, yes, his forecasts showed an increase, but of 1-2 mph wind speed, i.e., not that significant in terms of any given hurricane's strength.

But I would expect, of course, that this article will be twisted again into something saying the science of AGW is not settled, when it is merely saying an increase in the accuracy of a tool (wind sheer modeling) needs specifically to be integrated in hurricane forecast modeling.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(MegansPrius @ Apr 18 2007, 01:07 PM) [snapback]425545[/snapback]</div>

No - twisted is what has already happened to the science. Try googling "katrina global warming" for instance and you will get 1,630,000 hits, including on the first page scientifically dubious statements like:

"So, although we cannot be certain global warming intensified Katrina per se, it clearly has created circumstances under which powerful storms are more..."

"THE HURRICANE that struck Louisiana yesterday was nicknamed Katrina by the National Weather Service. Its real name is global warming..." (this from the Boston Globe and the great global warming cheerleader, Ross Gelbspan - the same one who routinely trashes the distinguished Richard Lindzen's reputation).

These statements appear quite regularly in the mainstream press despite the protests of expert scientists in the field like Chris Landsea, William Gray (and Lindzen, and others) who disagree that there is any established linkage between GW and hurricanes. Apparently the fundamental fact that hurricanes depend on sea temperature differences between the poles and the equator - and the fact that such differences would be reduced under most GW scenarios - is lost on these folks. :lol:

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(TimBikes @ Apr 18 2007, 11:46 PM) [snapback]425871[/snapback]</div>

Do you have any good links on this? I found an abstract from 1997 that stated that wind shear accounts for the bulk of it. However, the article is 10 years old. Don't know if it still stands or not.

 

The "distinguished Richard Lindzen?"


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

He's just a scumbag won over from fossil fuel interests ($$$$$$$$).

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Lindzen

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mirza @ Apr 19 2007, 05:03 AM) [snapback]425924[/snapback]</div>

Mizra - I think we all know your opinion of Lindzen. Of course, he has probably forgotten more about climate than you (or I) will ever know. It's distressing to see you continue to make ad hominen attacks instead of putting up a defensible argument. You are sounding more and more shrill with each posting.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(tripp @ Apr 19 2007, 02:24 AM) [snapback]425902[/snapback]</div>

Try here. There may be better sources bookmarked on my other laptop.

 

Thanks Tim. Within that link I would particularly mention

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/

Because they emphasize the (accessible) heat from the sea surface, not just temperature.

Back to general hurricane science, the equator to pole temperature difference does not pay much of a role. Rather, the sea surface temperature vs. the temperature and stability of the air above it. The only unassailable conclusion so far, I think, is that is that 'hurricane season' get longer if the tropical oceans get warmer.

 

Thanks lads. I'll dig into 'em.

 

I suppose then you've got no defense for his ridiculous statement on smoking. Here's something you need to know - for better or worse people make judgements based on where their income is and what they depend on. In this case it's for worse. From the evidence I've seen of this character, he's an industry schill - and such biases need to be exposed... as they have. Glad I could be of service.

Also note that you've been a shrill for quite some time now .

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mirza @ Apr 22 2007, 12:15 PM) [snapback]427873[/snapback]</div>

I would say shrill is making an ad hominen attack - not making an argument based on fact. So far I believe most of my statements have been more on the order of - global warming is something to be concerned with, but is not in my view a impending train wreck. I have supported my perspective with data. None-the-less, I will concede that there is a lot of conflicting data and many unknowns and perfectly reasonable people can reach very different conclusions from what do know about climate change. I don't think that is shrill.

As for Lindzen and smoking, that is a red herring. It has nothing to do with the topic at hand. And his paltry compensation for travel, by an energy company, hardly makes him an industry stooge. What are we to think of the scientists who pin their careers on slurping as much grant money as they can from the global warming trough? I think the whole basis of your argument is suspect. What's good for the goose is good for the gander, no?

No Mizra - it appears you would rather attack the source than the argument. Can you please provide me some solid, credible evidence from a well respected source that says global warming caused Katrina, has increased hurricane frequency, and increased the intensity? These are all theories at best - and weak ones at that - which are disputed or denied by some of the most knowledgeable folks in the field.

Show me some credible evidence and I will consider the argument. Tell me about Lindzen's smoking and I will continue to suspect that your argument is so devoid of facts that all you can muster is a personal attack.

 

Real Climate on the Paper that spawned this thread:
A recent paper by Vecchi and Soden (preprint) published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters has been widely touted in the news (and some egregiously bad editorials), and the blogosphere as suggesting that increased vertical wind shear associated with tropical circulation changes may offset any tendencies for increased hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic due to warming oceans. Some have even gone so far as to state that this study proves that recent trends in hurricane activity are part of a natural cycle. Most of this is just 'spin' (pun intended), but as usual, the real story is a little more nuanced.

...The bottom line conclusion has consistently remained that, while our knowledge of likely future changes in hurricanes or tropical cyclones (TCs) remains an uncertain area of science, the observed relationship between increased intensity of TCs and rising ocean temperatures appears to be robust (Figure 1). There is nothing in this latest article that changes that.

...It remains the case that the modeling of Hurricane-climate change interactions is still at a relatively primitive stage and this study is very unlikely to be the last word. We will of course follow the future developments closely.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archi...ear-turbulence/

As usual on RealClimate, the comments make for very interesting reading as well (including some interaction with one of the paper's authors).

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(MegansPrius @ Apr 26 2007, 08:31 AM) [snapback]430509[/snapback]</div>

As I said, theories. I am willing to accept any solid science that there is a cause and effect between global warming and hurricane intensity, though it is striking that there has been no increase in hurricane activity in other storm basins worldwide.

"Many individuals have queried whether the unprecedented landfall of four destructive hurricanes in a seven-week period during August-September 2004 is related in any way to human-induced climate changes. There is no evidence that this is the case. If global warming were the cause of the increase in United States hurricane landfalls in 2004 and the overall increase in Atlantic basin major hurricane activity of the past ten years (1995-2004), one would expect to see an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the other storm basins as well (ie., West Pacific, East Pacific, Indian Ocean, etc.). This has not occurred. When tropical cyclones worldwide are summed, there has actually been a slight decrease since 1995. In addition, it has been well-documented that the measured global warming of about 0.5°C during the 25-year period of 1970-1994 was accompanied by a downturn in Atlantic basin hurricane activity over this quarter-century period."