Good news day for Tesla 20,000 Model S coming

It'd be even better if it were Tesla making the 2013 Model S for 20,000....

 

Give them time
While the big guys could do that, a start up can't deal with those quantities.
They have a roadmap to get there

 

I would call Nissan a big boy, and they don't look like they will sell 20K NA leafs this fiscal year. Tesla is actually operating better than the big boys. They had a supplier glitch, raised more money to handle it, and held back cars from shipping with problems.

Now that it appears manufacturing and supply chains are fixed. They look like they can produce 2600 a quarter and can ramp to 5000. The question is can it sell those 5K cars a quarter, and will the Tesla X come in on schedule.

 

Well, they're saying that they're currently at 200 per week and they _want_ to get to 400. 200 is a big deal because that's potentially at positive cashflow, although that'd probably need them to scale back some retail. Any news of increases from here will be positive.

 

Agree that Tesla is doing better than the big guys in a number of ways.
What I was trying to say is Tesla is not yet mature enough of a company to build the lower cost vehicles which require higher quantity of production to be profitable.

I think Nissan and other big guys just haven't correctly designed an EV yet. And if they still haven't by 2016 or so, Tesla will have a huge open field. If they do manage to do so, Tesla will have a tougher time at it.

 

Its questionable in 2012 whether a low price bev can be made profitably. The initial adopters may want something more like a bmw 3 series- the car after the X, but I think tesla has it right and at least for the next 5 years a bev corola is not where the market is going.

Some of the marketing facts about leaf sales are buyers are actually initial adopters not polar bear huggers Nisan has changed its advertising, and is adding more upscale options. Nissan has some deep pockets and good designers. I don't think the versa based leaf is what the market is asking for in a bev today. Certainly Nissan can go more upscale with a redesign for NA initial adopters, as Tesla makes a less expensive more attainable vechile.

IMHO at least until 2020, phevs will rule the plug in market. After that battery costs may drop enough to do a high volume lower cost bev that gets traction, with a consumer that has seen many plug-ins not burning at the side of the road. Until then Tesla seems like its got the right strategy, but its an uphill climb. A partnership with a ford or hyundai on a higher volume phev would not be a bad move either.

 

I raise your skepticism with confidence that it's not possible I base this on the fact that nobody has done it, at least in a form factor that consumers want. I really think the Leaf is about the bare minimum acceptable in an EV (range, size, accessories), and they're still costing well over $30k before Federal credit, for a car that is rated at 73 and when the winter comes and the heat is on you can slash that number substantially.