How many Gen I & II Prius will be around 20+ years from now?

96% of all Prius made are still in service.
My last Toyota, a 1989 Corolla All-trac wagon, is still on the road. it's 4th owner is taking Driver's ed right now.

 

I predict Gen 1 will not be widely in service 10 year from now, due to problems with battery, inverter, and transaxle life.

 

The longevity of the Gen IIs comes down primarily to availability, affordability, and reliability of replacement traction batteries.

The 1.5L engine can be rebuilt when needed. The electric motors and planetary gear set should be durable and require no major repair

I'm hoping that aftermarket traction batteries will be available at a reasonable price.

 

I would say that G2 longevity will be based upon how long the electrical wiring harness can keep the many ECUs talking to each other without intermittent problems creeping in, and the extent to which owners are willing to learn how to DIY install salvage parts. The alternative will be paying four-digit repair bills to the local Toyota dealer for traction battery, inverter, and transaxle replacement, which will seem really silly when the vehicle's market value is far below the repair cost.

Hence I predict you will see relatively few G2 Prius around in 20 years, compared to other vehicles of similar age and qty sold.

 

I agree with Pat. Especially if the Gen II has spent its life outside.
Corrode all the interior wiring/ecu connections etc and you will have an intermittent mess. If you had to replace one of its more complex harness's the car would be totaled without a salvage part.

Its complexity does not bode well for a long afterlife because unlike the 20 year old clunkers that put put around today engines pinging and trans slipping if the Prius is not running right it will not run long.

 

I believe that the market will provide traction battery supply in some form, at a price better than new from the dealer. We don't know yet what that will look like. hybrid-battery-repair.com now sells the "BetterBattery", which are made of hand-fabricated replacement 6xD cell NiMH sticks.

Rebuilding the 1.5L is a waste of time, because there is an abundant supply of good used engines. They simply do not fail in service, as long as the oil level is high enough to supply pressure, and as long as the water pump is working.

There will be many well-known electrical problems as the Gen II fleet ages, including the MFD, combination meter, HID level sensor, etc. A good hybrid mechanic will have seen it all before and know how to fix it.

 

Although no troubles. (knock on wood) The more I learn about the limitations of the Gen1. (spoofs and hacks) The more I can't wait for 2014 to roll around so its my turn again to get a different vehicle... *Heavy sigh* only had the car 8 days and ready for a Gen2...