Hurricanes and Global Warming

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Marlin @ Aug 15 2006, 07:29 AM) [snapback]303439[/snapback]</div>

I don't know of any scientist who has cited Katrina and Rita specifically as evidence of GW, though I have heard them say that they would probably not have been as severe. Hurricanes are predicted to be more intense due to the higher temperatures of the oceans. But the higher temperatures of the oceans do not cause hurricanes. Hurricanes are predicted to be more frequent due to the increased temperatures in the atmosphere, which is predicted to lead to more storms, and tropical storms are the beginnings of hurricanes. But the increased temperatures in the atmosphere do not cause hurricanes either. Weather systems are a complex combination of many factors, and temperature is just one of them. Because of this, hurricane frequency and intensity by itself cannot be used as evidence of global warming (or cooling) trends. The evidence for GW is the temperature record.

 

I didn't realize hurricane season was over already... oh wait, it's not. It ends in November.

 

near normal??? a bit presumptious arent we??

near normal??? a bit presumptious arent we??

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Marlin @ Aug 15 2006, 08:29 AM) [snapback]303439[/snapback]</div>

The "real" hurricane season hasn't even begun yet, so this statement is a bit premature. Things don't really get exciting down here until the last half of August, and peak activity is ~September 10th, if I recall. Last year, Hurricane Wilma came near the end of October! We even had a hurricane in January 2006.

 

This opening post reminds me of a letter to the editor of a local newspaper that cited the below normal temperatures in the Chicago region for the early spring and then made a correlation to the falsity of GW. It's not called Regional warming for a reason. When the '06 autumn season is over, I'm positive we'll see another record year for an increase in average global temperatures, more baby seals dying (these poor little guys can no longer keep up with their moms when hunting because the ice is getting farther and farther away) and more polar bears drowning. Is anybody as trouble by these drownings as am I? I guess as another poster once stated "we humans come first?!?!?!? :huh:

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Marlin @ Aug 15 2006, 08:29 AM) [snapback]303439[/snapback]</div>

There is a lot of dust coming off Africa (Sahel / Sahara desertification) which is resulting in lots of dry air in the tropics which in turn acts to dampen tropical storm activity. The SSTs are also not nearly as high as last year.

So no, your great big speculation is not applicable. Go and post some information regarding temperatures, etc and then publish your paper and get real experts to debate. :blink:

Until then - just accept the experts.

/ I am no expert - I just read what they write & publish.

 

A couple of thoughts....

Huricanes have been wiping out the New Orleans area and the gulf coast forever. It seems to run in cycles. Journal entries from settlers in the 1600s onward document it. Before the 1950s the New Orleans building code required houses be built on stilts, it was relaxed for the baby boomer families. Hence the non-stilt houses were wiped out in Katrina, the ones built to code were fine.

About 40 years ago satelites went up in space and we could she the planet better. Therefore we added to the total hurricane number the huricanes that form way out in the ocean but never make land fall. Just because we can see more now doesn't mean there are more.

 

Look up the Rosenfeld Symposium.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Karnac @ Aug 15 2006, 05:23 PM) [snapback]303734[/snapback]</div>

The number of factors that need to come together to allow a hurricane to develop are more than simply heat. That is why we cannot point to a single event or even a single season and say that that resulted from Global Warming. What we can predict is that there is going to be a change trend.

No, and you can be sure that the researchers are aware of this observational issue. And the further you go back in history, the less you know. There aren't the same kind of proxies that tell us what the broad trends are doing.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(SSimon @ Aug 15 2006, 10:16 AM) [snapback]303572[/snapback]</div>

Those are the ignorant ones who have no understanding of the importance of biodiversity and our natural life support systems....

 

Global warming affects hurricane intensity: study
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060815/sc_nm/...t_hurricanes_dc

 

triphop, you have no idea how much you surprised me with that image. I spend a great deal of my time at work looking at images just like that. Just a month back was studying the Sahel dust storms. Different satellite though.

 

Here is Jeff Masters latest post on his blog at the Weather Underground site:

August Outlook

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(triphop @ Aug 16 2006, 01:21 PM) [snapback]304206[/snapback]</div>

Very prescient post triphop. This Masters guy knows what he's talking about.

 

i wouldn't start concluding anything until november or so... we're just getting started on this season.