Hybrid cars losing market share

That is really surprising to me. The number of hybrids in my area have definitely shown a sharp increase. I see so many more Gen III Prii and quite a few 2010 Honda Insights, plus Camry Hybrids, Ford Fusion Hybrids, Ford Escape Hybrids than ever before.

My first thoughts on the dropoff in 2010 would be the media firestorm over the runaway Toyota's and Prius brake delay issues. For 2011 it would be the Japan tsunami.

 

+1

economic car sales go down with gas prices, then they go up as the gas prices go up. This year they couldn't b/c of tsunami and short supply

 

The number of hybrids is offset by the number of new oversized megapickups. A macho ethic runs deep and is reinforced by the automakers, both Detroit and Japan. The purchase price and operating cost of these "Chelsea Tractors" will hit reality as the cost of fuel increases.

 

The big peak in 2009 was because of the tax credit coming to an end and the rush to take advantage of it. We had a huge rush of 2009's show up here right before it ended. If you take that peak out of consideration, the Prius sales are fairly steady even with the production shutdown due to the tsunami.

 

Well, many new choices have come out in the C and B segments in the past couple years that get good fuel economy. Plus, cheaper than a hybrid, so it's an easier purchase for most.

 

Barring any more futures manipulation, it could be years or decades even before fuel prices increase significantly. With new deep water discoveries, now-economical tar sands recovery, low inflation, growth slowing down in developing nations, I don't see why fuel costs would be going up.

Plus most people don't GAF about global warming. So we'll see these genitalia extenders roaming the highways for a long time.

 

I am inclined to believe that both Trollbait and Skoorbmax ideas combined contribute a lot. Also, the longer gas prices linger around the 3.30-3.75 range, the more it becomes "the norm" to us and people begin to adjust accordingly. It is no longer mentally considered "a shock" in prices. I think if we surpass 4.00 nationally, and it starts to tick upward from there, it'll become that shock once again to many folks. Then the knee jerk reaction kicks in, people trade up in efficiency. When prices go back down, the knee jerk kicks in again but they trade up to their "macho" vehicle they got rid of.

Even with new discoveries, they aren't the "low hanging fruit" per se for extraction. Those supplies are mostly gone at this point, and the harder to reach oil won't be extracted unless prices support it. I don't expect prices to jump too much higher, as the $80 price point is probably just about right with global consumption. However, when the US economy recovers, especially if it happens quickly (unlikely), that price point will jump up just as quickly. As we continue to purchase the "disposable" products, the use of fuels in manufacturing/transport/etc will increase again, supporting higher prices.

I could be totally wrong, of course. It's really anyones guess at this point. For all we know, a global catastrophe could occur (I really hope it doesn't) and throw an entire different wrench into the mix.

 

It will go up every 2-3 years. Regulations which required most of oil to be sold under long term contracts is what kept the prices low in 90s; after the infamous Chaney energy commission deregulated it in 2001 alot more oil sold under short-term contracts. Hence speculation and higher prices.

 

I think market share in 2011 will end up bigger than 2010, due to Sonata/Optima.
Hybrids were in tight supply due to tsunami this year.

Next year it will go up with Prius v, Prius PHV and Camry Hybrid.

For it to go up more, they simply need more hybrid vehicles. Sales wont go up when you have 4-5 cars that are for mass market and rest of them being niche PR machines.

 

CNN's spin is less benign than that. Graphs can be made to say anything you want. CNN has an agenda, so that's why they pull one pigeon holed item out to prove a point. GEE - hybrid sales, going down? GEE - surprise surpirse for the last couple years !!
Stock market's in the toilet
ALL car sales in the toilet
Employment is in the toilet
home sales in the toilet
That's right - pretty much the whole dang economy is in the toilet - get it? Yes, Japan's tidal wave caused hybrids to take a hit. But the bottom line of what CNN is couching - is that most ALL commerce is down. One single industry's stat's mean nothing unless they're comparred to other industries. But hey, thanks for the news flash CNN.



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During my 48 mile, each way, per day commute, I saw VERY few new Priuses after the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, but now, over the past few weeks, I'm seeing a lot of brand new (dealer plates) Priuses. In fact, over the past week, I probably saw 7-8 new GenIII Priuses.
Brand new full size SUVs are virtually non-existent.

I've seen a lot of new small conventional vehicles though (Yaris, Corolla, lots of Ford Fiesta and Focus, etc).

PS. I see about 3-4 brand new Leafs per month.

 

I continue to argue that the reason there is "Prius" and then "Everyone Else" and "Everyone Else" has failed to grab much market share is that Toyota has got it right with Prius...and everyone else seems to get it ultimately wrong.

Toyota with Prius produce's an relatively affordable hybrid that offers the best gas mileage of any Hybrid vehicle. It's hatchback design makes it useable in the real world. Did I mention the gas mileage is absolutely the best?

While I'm always happy to see competition, why nobody else seems able or willing to set their sites on the benchmarks that Prius has established seems suprising to me.

Given that regular ICE's are more efficient and some are approaching "hybrid like" highway numbers, it doesn't suprise me that a lot of regular consumers look at the rest of the Hybrid options and decide making that purchase would not be wise. IMO a 35-40 mpg Hybrid sedan, that will have the hybrid complications and usually a smaller trunk and less utility does not stack up well against regular competition.

Prius succeeds, because it deserves to succeed. I know Toyota holds the patents to their HSD system and it get's complicated, but I'm still waiting for the day when a competitor releases a vehicle that comes close to Prius numbers and utility.

The Honda Insight, probably comes the closest, as a smaller Prius body type clone....but it still fails because ultimately it is smaller...and not as efficient.

Given Toyota's media struggles, The Tsunami tragedy, and gas prices in North America maintaining higher but relatively stable price points...it doesn't suprise me that while some token competitors have increased the options in the genre, that overall market share hasn't increased. IMO it's because I think the only manufacturer to really get it right so far has been Toyota.

Nissan might be able to make some inroads with The Leaf. As a full electric, and also a hatchback...I watch with interest.

 

For the ytd comparisons
August 2011 Dashboard: Hybrid Sales Remain Sluggish | Hybrid Cars

If you are looking at '12 it looks to be higher market share than '10. HYbrids other than the prius grew in sales but not as fast as the market as a whole and could not make up for the lost prius sales.

 

Others have made mention of this but it seems like you have a few factors at work - short supply due to the tsunami, better non-hybrid options and a realization that running out an buying a new car is not the option.

For about half of 2011 to date we have had severely constricted supplies of many Japanese cars - given the high price of gas Toyota would have been able to sell their projected number pf Prius's had the tsunami not happened.

There are a number of new 40mpg cars out there that make at least a compelling argument - the 2 that really come to mind are the Cruise and Elantra, though there are also others like the Fiesta. Before the past 18 months or so the options were quite a bit more limited and did not have the quality or style of these new cars.

Lastly - back in 2008 when gas prices spiked the folks who could afford it went out and traded in their huge cars and trucks for smaller alternatives only to be stuck with cars that they hated when gas prices dipped. Part of it was there were not a ton of compelling higher mileage cars so people settled - add in the fact that supply was tight and there was a glut of used SUV's on the used market so people got bad deals on cars that they did not like. So now they are less likely to be burned again.

All that being said - the final reason is that there needs to be another compelling hybrid option beyond Prius. The v will help a bit, but another company has to come out with a compelling option. My bet would be Kia/Hyundai - the already have the Sonata and Optima and give the speed at which they operate I would image that in 2 years or so they could have something in the pipeline - it may not match the Prius, but it does not have to, rather it just needs to be better than the rest and offer something that Prius does not.

 

I wish this were true, but I suspect and fear that it is hopelessly naive.

Tom

 

Nope, no such thing. Making gasoline from tar sands never has been economical, and never will be. The only way to make it look 'profitable' is to ignore the environmental costs.