In November, 700 Intercontinental Weapons Were Launched Against the USA?

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by ETC(SS), Feb 3, 2023.

  1. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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  2. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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    The US should have accidentally obliterated it when it was over the ocean approaching the US just as China has said it accidently drifted off course.

    As mentioned in a previous thread - with the cowardly way this administration abandoned Afghanistan it emboldened our enemies and made us a laughingstock.

    Just as Russia saw the cowardly exit in Afghanistan as a green light to expand its aggressive behaviors in Ukraine, we should expect China to make major moves toward Tawain, in the China Sea and continued heightened saber rattling and provocation from North Korea. They know they have a limited time before this Administration is over and then there is the potential someone could be elected who would put a damper on this nonsense.

    These countries know the clock is ticking and they need to get busy before this current administration ends.

    While in the service I had my fill of war. I am not a saber rattler. There are some very, very bad leaders in this world who dominate their countries by force and would like nothing better than to expand their field of operation in the world.
     
    #2 John321, Feb 3, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2023
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    why don't they grab it for the tech?
     
  4. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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  5. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Patron saint of newly poured sidewalks

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    Is this thing guidable, or just goes where the wind takes it?
     
  6. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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  7. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    You can't easily guide them, but you can sort of influence them by release timing... as in don't release it until the wind is blowing more or less where you want it to go.

    Eventually somebody will (has?) develop proper drone aerostats (maybe we need a new term?) that can navigate somewhat by changing altitude to be pushed by winds going different directions. Same thing aeronauts do with hot air balloons.
     
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  8. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Probably the same thing that happened to a lumbering, 50-year-old propellor driven reccie bird I'm thinking of.....only it was in international airspace well outside AIDZs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident

    Or???
    The same thing that happened to an RQ-4 that was similarly NOT flying over somebody's actual nation......


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Iranian_shoot-down_of_American_drone....

    Pattern Established!
    You push where there's mush.

    FWIW, I think that the current administration did the correct thing by keeping Blinken in the house for a while......
     
  9. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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  10. sam spade 2

    sam spade 2 Senior Member

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    AND.....I guess you forgot that a large percentage of them visited, shook hands and took publicity photos with TRUMP while he was in office.

    You have come to the exact wrong conclusion.
     
  11. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    “Instances of this activity have been observed over the past several years, including prior to this administration.”
    Pentagon tracking suspected Chinese spy balloon over the US | CNN Politics

    China has spy satellites flitting overhead already. A balloon isn't likely to add more to what those are gathering. Since the military's advice is to leave it alone, they probably agree. They are probably more worried about what China can learn about our capabilities if we did shoot it down.
     
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    there has to be a reason
     
  13. John321

    John321 Senior Member

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    Correct on the intelligence.

    China has made this visible incursion to show its contempt for the current administration and to signal that it is going to move more aggressively. They needed to test the current Administrations incompetence and cowardice in preparation for bigger world moves. They are anxious to move on Tawain and need to begin pushing even harder to find out what they can expect when they do this. Flying a visible and maneuverable spy system in plain sight of the population is a great way to find out "what will happen" and then begin to prepare accordingly.
     
  14. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    We're America. We shouldn't deploy anything stronger than a new Pepsi™ campaign against this thing, otherwise we'd be giving away valuable intel.

    pepsi2.gif
     
    #14 Leadfoot J. McCoalroller, Feb 3, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2023
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Indeed, it also caused:
    • <any other complaint>
    When you include Trump's agreement to pull the US troops out of Afghanistan two months earlier, we'll be on the same page. But lying by omission is risky in Priuschat as some of us still remember and will call it out.

    By the way per this source:

    Between 14 and 25 August, the US alone evacuated about 82,300 people from Hamid Karzai International Airport, including US citizens, Special Immigrant Visa applicants, and other vulnerable Afghans. In total, over 122,000 people were airlifted abroad.

    I am proud our country saved so many.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #15 bwilson4web, Feb 3, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2023
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  16. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    A little proverb-y thing from 1896:

    "If a cock ruffles up his feathers, it is easy to pluck him."

    It's not hard to see how a Chinese strategist might be pleased if, with a drifting balloon, he could see us react like a goaded teenager, and inform his planning.

    It's harder to see why it would be in our interest to give him that.

    It's even harder to explain voices in our own country choosing to play the Chinese strategist's angle and join in with the goading.
     
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Too early for Lantern Festival :eek:

    Based on what I have read, this seems to be 'signals intelligence' gathering over ICBM launch sites, possibly better done from below ionosphere, which limits what can be done from LEO sigint satellites.

    Second (speculation) sniff at how 'rivet joints' will sniff at it. Third, learn from what shoot-down tech is used, if used. Fourth, just poke USA and learn from responses.

    One way or another, US will collect the device and learn from that.

    I cannot imagine a fair reading of Intl law under which this would be legal.

    Operationally, it is at ~60,000 feet and varying (under remote control) winds differ at different heights, and that is how such things are steered.

    It's a fine time to learn what atmospheric back trajectory models are, and what they can do:

    hysplit back traj.jpg
     
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    There may be months of the year when winds are more likely to facilitate the 'travel phase' and snoop phase' of mission. There is no year or time of year when this would not add another impediment to intl relations.

    Blinken has already postponed a diplomatic visit.
     
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    One aspect I have not yet seen discussed is back traj implies a substantial and successful effort to snoop Alaska before N Dakota etc.
     
  20. hkmb

    hkmb Senior Member

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    This has made me think several things.

    • The very nerve of it! How dare someone send a spy aircraft into the airspace of the country that is home to Gary Powers?
    • How dare the country that's been accused of - among other things - forced labour by the US, based on .... umm .... spy photos from above .... do spying from above? It's a disgrace.
    • Wait, what? A country spied on another country? Noooooooooo. This never happens.
    • Conversely, why the f--- would a country with a massive network of its own easily-controllable spy satellites use a balloon? One that's hard to control, and very easy to see? Unless it's some sort of wind-up, as @John321 suggests?
    • It is lucky that balloons like this are only ever used for spying, and not for like weather monitoring and stuff. So there's no need to shoot it down to see what sort of equipment is on there because it is totally definitely a spy balloon.
    • Isn't it remarkable this this happened just as Anthony Blinken was supposed to turn up for talks that some in China and many in the US didn't want to happen?

    I mean, this isn't really something there should be any fuss about. Unless people wanted there to be a fuss about it. Which they do. So there is. Which is nice.

    If it were a deliberate provocation by China - and I don't know whether it is or it isn't - the most effective thing it's done has been to get Democrats and Republicans screaming at each other that they are weak and stupid. But that seems like a lot of effort to achieve something that was already happening all day every day.
     
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