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Intelligence Failures

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by dbermanmd, Sep 12, 2006.

  1. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    Please name one time where American intelligence agencies were able to pinpoint the development of WMD's. Feel free to go back to the beginning of WMD's - 1940's and move forward until today.
     
  2. efusco

    efusco Moderator Emeritus
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    Not sure what "pin point" means, but we sure knew a lot about the nukes of cold-war Soviet Union.
     
  3. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(efusco @ Sep 12 2006, 12:08 PM) [snapback]318370[/snapback]</div>
    Did we? Were we able to predict when they would become a nuclear power?
     
  4. efusco

    efusco Moderator Emeritus
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    Hell I don't know if we knew exactly 'when'...and when, exactly is one considered a Nuclear power...when you've test launched a nuclear missile, when you have a power plant and are capable of refining nuclear fuel?

    As I recall there was little mystery about it, but this was mostly before my time.
     
  5. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(efusco @ Sep 12 2006, 12:33 PM) [snapback]318400[/snapback]</div>
    Real simple - when you explode a nuclear device you are a nuclear power - especially back then.

    Did our intelligence agencies pinpoint or even come close to identifying when that event was going to take place with the soviets? Then the next part of the question - did our intelligence agencies pinpoint that same event ever again with other countries?
     
  6. jayman

    jayman Senior Member

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    Under great urgency, the United States took a supposedly "scientific" program called "Discoverer" and retasked it to the spy satellite "Corona."

    Dr Land - the inventer of the Polaroid "Land" camera - took the work of Dr Walter Levison (The optics genius at Itek) and convinced the CIA's Bissel to utilize the camera payload system as an orbital spy satellite. It actually worked wonderfully, but proved all the claims of the "missile gap" were unfounded. The "bomber gap" was equally false; if anything, the former USSR had the "gap," and a pretty dramatic one too.

    The "Gaither Report" was blatently false, and Eisenhower knew it, but other elements instead pushed ahead a dramatic escalation of the Military Industrial Complex that Eisenhower so feared

    http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2006/3311...n_kiracofe.html
     
  7. efusco

    efusco Moderator Emeritus
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    Actually we did 'pinpoint' India as they became a nuclear powers. Pakistan was more covert.

    Anyway, is this just a question of curiosity because you don't know the answer and are too lazy to look it up or are you trying to bait some arguement?

    If the latter why not just cut to the chase. Just realize that if you start making noise about Iran (as you're want to do) my first question will be about the more immediate and real risk posed by N. Korea.
     
  8. KMO

    KMO Senior Member

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    All of which pales into insignificance compared to the threat posed by the USA; the only country I suspect of being stupid enough to actually use a nuke at the moment, as I suspect its leaders think they could get away with it.
     
  9. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(jayman @ Sep 12 2006, 12:41 PM) [snapback]318412[/snapback]</div>
    I did not catch an answer to my post...

    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(efusco @ Sep 12 2006, 12:48 PM) [snapback]318417[/snapback]</div>
    Actually India got by us too. Just looking for one time US intelligence sources pinpointed when a country was about to become a nuclear power.

    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(KMO @ Sep 12 2006, 12:57 PM) [snapback]318428[/snapback]</div>
    You are right, we even fooled our own intelligence agencies. Gold Star for you.
     
  10. jayman

    jayman Senior Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Sep 12 2006, 12:31 PM) [snapback]318453[/snapback]</div>
    I guess the only answer you'll understand: the intelligence "geniuses" were just as deranged as you are.
     
  11. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(KMO @ Sep 12 2006, 12:57 PM) [snapback]318428[/snapback]</div>
    Thank you for your opinion which i happen to find perverted - but if you can - answer the question that was posted.
     
  12. Alric

    Alric New Member

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    I will save everyone the trouble of continuing this thread:

    a) there will be many answers with references from people interested in the truth.

    B) dbermanmd will not read/understand/acknowledge any of those

    c) He will keep asking until a fellow wingnut writes what he likes.

    d) He'll acknowledge those.

    It was fun for a while because it gave insight into the wingnut mind. After all there isn't much there so I got bored.

    Cheers,
     
  13. Proco

    Proco Senior Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Alric @ Sep 13 2006, 10:00 AM) [snapback]318891[/snapback]</div>
    Gee, alric. You're no fun. :p
     
  14. etyler88

    etyler88 etyler88

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(efusco @ Sep 12 2006, 12:08 PM) [snapback]318370[/snapback]</div>

    Still had a major intelligence screw up with USSR. It is called the "missle gap"

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_gap

    The USA thought we were behind the USSR in the number of missles and we had to catch up. Kruschev thought we were gung-ho nuclear nuts and it ended up ratcheting cold war tensions to stupid levels. The missle gap essentially led to the Cuban Missle crisis. But we did get the movie Dr. Strangelove out of it.

    So I would not call cold war WMD intelligence real good.
     
  15. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(etyler88 @ Sep 13 2006, 12:58 PM) [snapback]318991[/snapback]</div>
    good point - easy to find intelligence screw-ups - can you find one instance were US intelligence agencies were acurate in detecting nuclear weapons programs in other countries over the past 60 years? Still don't have one taker here.

    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Proco @ Sep 13 2006, 10:04 AM) [snapback]318892[/snapback]</div>
    not only is he no fun - he has no answers - which is more disappointing?
     
  16. TonyPSchaefer

    TonyPSchaefer Your Friendly Moderator
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    I just sort of skimmed some of the previous posts, so I hope no one has beaten me to this:

    What about the possibility that we might have information but not want to disclose that we have the hypothetical information?

    For example, there was a German submarine that was captured intact during WWII. It held an Enigma Device used to decode encrypted messages. Of course, disclosing the poccession of this devise would prompt the Germans to switch encoding techniques.

    Additionally, if a hypothetical country were to employ spies and/or double agents to gain top-secret information, the disclosure of that information would notify enemies and allies that covert - and maybe illegal - paths have been pursued to obtain that information.

    So waht I'm getting at is the possibility that we know more than we let on. Perhaps now, perhaps in the past, perhaps will do so in the future. I'm not saying that we do or don't. I'm just proffering the idea for discussion.
     
  17. etyler88

    etyler88 etyler88

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Sep 13 2006, 01:25 PM) [snapback]319007[/snapback]</div>

    Seems like the trend now days (last 20 years at least ) is that countries developing nukes do not hide it rather they advertise it for negotiating power. If anything they will say they they are more nuke capable than they are.

    Nukes is not an intelligence question rather a diplomacy chess game.

    By the way response to terroism is not a war, it is an law enforcement problem using law enforcement intelligence or at least it should be.
     
  18. airportkid

    airportkid Will Fly For Food

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(TonyPSchaefer @ Sep 13 2006, 10:29 AM) [snapback]319012[/snapback]</div>
    Excellent point. Keeping secret Britain's ability to decode Enigma messages was deemed so important that Churchill deliberately did nothing to alert a large city of a large Luftwaffe bombing raid because raising the alert would have signaled to the Germans that Enigma had been cracked. I'm certain that was not the only time during a war that leaders deliberately sacrificed citizens for perceived larger strategic purposes, but it is the only one I can name (even if I can't remember the name of the city (Manchester perhaps?) - see the book "A Bodyguard of Lies").

    So claims that the CIA was "ignorant" of foreign developments of any kind are ignorant themselves, unless the claimant was a former high level executive in an intelligence service AND is now betraying service ethics by making such claims. And demanding from the public at large "proof" of what an intelligence service knew or didn't know is similarly absurd - like asking a blind man to prove that certain paragraphs are missing from a novel.

    Mark Baird
    Alameda CA
     
  19. rufaro

    rufaro WeePoo, Gen II

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Sep 12 2006, 10:31 AM) [snapback]318453[/snapback]</div>

    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Sep 13 2006, 06:36 AM) [snapback]318879[/snapback]</div>

    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Alric @ Sep 13 2006, 07:00 AM) [snapback]318891[/snapback]</div>
    Is it just me, or does anyone else notice that dbermanmd always reject answers to his questions that simply do not suit him? Hey guy...plenty of people DID answer your question. You don't like the answers...too bad.
     
  20. dbermanmd

    dbermanmd New Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Rufaro @ Sep 14 2006, 02:23 AM) [snapback]319356[/snapback]</div>
    instead of looking for group backing to support your null hypothesis - list for me all the successes of American intelligence agencies in predicting a countries entry into the nuclear club. That is not too hard - there are less than a dozen or so.

    i will give a big failure - they did not even pick up Israel going nuclear almost 40 years ago - and that was right under their noses in an open democratic society. Your turn - but go for one success where they predicted it would happen. If you want, you can ask for group help. Or as posit - just gleam them from all the responses to this post...