Is 400 just the number after 399, or are we doomed, so we can stop arguing

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by austingreen, Nov 20, 2015.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    NOAA and HADCRUT are two among several compilations. Here is the latter through 2021 Sept

    CRU Sept 21.png
    I circled 1998 because it was touted at the time as warmest on record. You can still find people claiming that T has not increased since then, if you know where (in Congress :) ) to look. But it seems more sensible to observe 'each decade higher than previous'. In future, if that stops being the case, it will indeed be newsworthy.
     
  2. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Look in the rearview mirror.
    Looking at the annual cycle at Mauna Loa, the highest month is May, the lowest is September or October, so we are near the seasonal low right now.

    This year, May averaged 418.95. Absent slower growth than we have seen anytime in the past two decades, May 2022 will average above 420.

    The highest weekly average was the week around May 1 this year, at 419.65. Absent an absolute miracle, 420 week(s) will happen next year.

    Daily averages have already broken 420: April 30 (420.29) and June 1 (420.06) this year.

    The day I was born measured 318, so it has been up more than 100 points during my life.
     
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Sorry, ‘old man memory.’

    Son, I remember the first Soviet space missions towards Venus in the 1960s that reported the very high temperatures. The problem being heat trapping atmosphere … and the evaporation of a planet populated by attractive, sexually active Amazon women.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  4. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    The estimated pre-industrial level was 280. That means more than 70% of the increase has occurred during my lifetime!
     
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    For future [CO2} we could look at new country-level COP26 commitments that left the most aggrieved parties feeling .. aggrieved. If slower future [CO2] increases happen, they will happen after 2030. Only if some large players find a turd in their punch bowl. So to speak.

    It may be well to consider IPCC' RCP 4.5 future scenario (shut it down now) and RCP 8.5 (burn baby burn) as both unlikely, for different reasons. Intermediate RCP projects [CO2] ~520 ppm at 2050, with slow decreases later. I suppose that is what plants will see, and climates will (continue to) change regionally.
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Indeed we are the generation to witness [CO2] above levels when humans invented agriculture and made earth 'our planet'. That possession could not have happened without the big energy-burn. Subsequent generations will need to make this planet a persistently good home, as alternatives are far beyond reach.

    Many scientists are striving to make earth good enough for us through century 21. Future climate models offer less than one would hope in informing that work. But one must admire their efforts, or if not, offer something better.
     
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    we need a hole in the ozone layer to let the heat escape
     
  8. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    CO₂: heat kept in

    O₃: ultraviolet light kept out
     
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Ozone does have absorption bands in infra red. Most ozone is in stratosphere, where it cannot do much to absorb outgoing heat. If it did, there is no efficient mechanism to transfer that heat to troposphere.

    There is ozone in troposphere, but not very much. If there were enough to 'move the needle' on infra red energy balance, it would cause much larger direct biological problems.
     
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