Is Climate Change in any way shape or form related to more tornadoes?

of course it is.

 

No. Tornadoes are a local event, lacking the ability to alter climate. Perhaps you meant to ask this question instead: "Are tornadoes in any way, shape, or form related to climate change?" You have the cause and effect reversed.

Tom

 

I think the OPs question was, is there some connection between climate change and the number or severity of tornados? Anecdotally one might draw the connection,, that said, the predictions have always said that severe weather events of many types are likely to become more common.
Icarus

 

I also believe that was the OP's question, but it was stated backward. In other words, do tornadoes cause climate change?

Tom

 

In my opinion as an atmospheric scientist (meteorologist), it's unlikely that there's a correlation between the severe weather outbreaks we've seen and climate change, although I acknowledge that no one really knows for sure.

I can share all of the boring scientific reasons for my opinion if anyone is really interested.

 

One of the predictions of Global Climate Chaos is increased frequency and severity of storms. If you are noticing such a trend, it should increase your belief that Global Climate Chaos is currently happening.

 

I have the same position as I had in the Global weirding thread.
The recent tornadoes were predicted by Piers Corbyn using analysis of solar (and lunar)activity.
If they could be predicted by solar observation,then they must be caused by solar lunar activity,not by global warming.
There was a recent increase in solar flares which affected the severity and number of tornadoes.
It also raises the possibility of earthquakes until April 23rd .
Comments from Piers
This is the April prediction page, with later added, confirmations of weather events .

 

That logic is very flawed. If it was also predicted by a meteorologist from other phenomena would that mean that it must be caused by that phenomena and not my solar activity?

 

If the IPCC premise that the poles are warming relatively more than the tropics is accepted, I dispute this prediction.

 

Meteorologists dont predict anything correctly beyond 4-5 days.
And often theyre wrong making next day predictions.
If meteorologists were correct then you might have a point.
Piers Corbyn is making correct long range predictions, months and years ahead of time.
Although in the case of the recent flares,their effect was realized in a matter of days or weeks.

 

As does Lindzen.He says temp disparity creates more severe weather.Warmer poles means less disparity.

 

Please do so.. b/c so far the best explanation we had heard was this: global warming -> more energy in atmosphere -> cases more extreme events. and it is hard to argue against, if you look at statistics there are not that many tornadoes registered in sub-freezing conditions.

 

I wouldn't be expecting reasons or opinions in order to demonstrate a lack of correlation. If you have data and an actual correlation coefficient, I would dearly love to see it.

 

OK, you asked for it.

Like heavy snow events that are being blamed on global warming, warm and moist air is a necessary but not sufficient condition for severe weather events like tornadoes. Very stronger winds aloft (much stronger than surface winds, called shear) are also a necessary condition. Have you ever heard of tornado outbreaks near the equator? There's plenty of warm and moist air in many locations in the tropics.

These strong upper level wind fields/shear are driven by thermal gradients between the tropics and the poles. If this temp gradient is lessened, the upper flow weakens correspondingly, and less shear is available for severe weather to "feed" on.

There are also other conditions that cause favorable conditions for tornadoes. Normally, surface convergence (e.g., along a strong surface cold front) and/or divergence aloft are also required. Ever wonder how the Storms Prediction Center can determine where "moderate" or "high" risks of severe weather will occur? They use all of these conditions where they are occurring or are projected to occur (per models) to determine areas that are likely to see these severe weather events. The more of these conditions that come together, the higher the risk and stronger the storms are likely to be. Winds turning with height, called helicity, are also a good indicator of potential tornadoes. Again, these are driven primarily by thermal gradients.

In my opinion, more intense severe weather outbreaks are a counter-indicator of global warming. This was one of the biggest criticisms I had with Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth", since it was implied that severe weather, particularly tornadoes, would become more frequent and more intense.

Again, this is MY opinion based on my understanding of severe storms formation, and there may be other factors that may be occurring or that may not yet be known about tornado formation.

 

Can you try again? I am unable to see anything which is predicted by Global Climate Chaos in what you are saying.

What is the definition of 'shear' as you used it here. The way you describe it doesn't match what I think of as shear in more earth bound circumstances, where it describes two different things moving in close proximity.

What is specific about convergence and divergence that are negatively correlated with increased energy retention by the planet?

When you talk about thermal gradients, is that vertically (as in lapse rate) or in some other direction? And how is it related to global climate chaos?

 

Does it matter? I want my grandson to be able to see the beauty I've seen. I want him to have the air I breath.
This is one thing I will not risk.

 

The thermal gradient I'm referring to is in the horizontal - from the cold poles to the warm tropics. Of course, there's also a thermal gradient in the vertical, but that's not what I'm referring to here.

If you hypothetically warmed the poles to the same temp as the tropics, it would be my expectation that you would get only disorganized diurnal convection, similar to what you see in mid-summer in the southern tier of the CONUS. That doesn't mean you can't get an isolated severe storm (called pulse severe), but these almost never produce tornadoes.

Organized severe storms that include multiple tornadoes are generally rotating storms that REQUIRE shear (generally both speed and directional shear). This kind of shear in a sense is what you may know - air at relatively close proximity moving at different speed. There's also directional shear which is winds that turn with height in the vertical. This is often what imparts rotation to any storm that may form.

Again, if you warm the poles relatively more than the tropics, it would be my expectation that winds aloft would weaken, thus weakening the shear, and intensity of storms in general. Of course, there's another possibility - IPCC is wrong about the poles warming relatively more than the tropics, and warming is occurring more or less equally over the entire earth. In that case, severe weather may become more frequent and intense. I'm basing my opinion on the assumption that IPCC's premise is occurring.

 

don't try to sell my wife on that theory.