Is the oil shortage real?

The reason that there is no large scale recover plant is that the use of the shale oil resource was blocked by congress to "preserve the environment". The environmental movement has fought against any development of energy resources in th US for years with some success. The problem is not the oil industry, it is congress (maybe I'm the cynical one).

JeffD

 

You made the mistake of saying "100 years at our present rate of use" that would never work unless we had massive infrastructure changes that allow us to utilize alternative energy as well as a drop in general consumption. I do not see where calculations into the future are every acurate if one uses a "present rate of consumption" when the historic growth rate has been constantly growing.

There are also a lot of nasty side affects of shale-based oil recovery in the form of water use and contamination, energy requirements, pollution, alteration of habitat and a bunch of issues with local indigenous cultures adjacent to these lands and the lands the product travels through and is refined in. For more information on indigenous issues check out the Indigneous Environmental Network

 

What oil shortage? Are you standing in line for gas? This isn't the 1970s--which most of you wouldn't remember. Then, there was no gas. Or very little.

The problem right now is apparently speculation in oil commodities. This will all be ironed out very soon in that oil summit meeting coming up next week.

We haven't reached a point where there are oil "shortages". There is simply too much oil in the ground for that.

 

There is actually a shortage... it's refinery capacity. Even with a greater supply of oil, only so much can be processed into diesel & gas.

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Do not confuse todays oil-based fuel prices and the issue of peak oil. At current consumption rates and if those consumption rates continue to grow as they have then yes, we should consider ourselves in an "oil shortage" period. Despite all the additional drilling and technology production is continuing it's downward trend (in most countries).

Better to be prepared for it then pretend it is not happening and get blind-sided!

The conclusions of the Hirsch report should be considered IMO:

More on the topic of production: (Originally from the EIA and World Watch Institute)

Peak oil by country: (copied from Wikipedia so I didn't have to type and format it. I do own the original publication though)

Peak Oil as a concept applies globally, but it is based on the summation of individual nations experiencing peak oil. In State of the World 2005, Worldwatch Institute observes that oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil-producing countries. Other countries have also passed their individual oil production peaks.
The following list shows significant oil-producing nations and their approximate peak oil production years, organized by year.

• Japan: 1932 (assumed; source does not specify)
• Germany: 1966
• Libya: 1970
• Venezuela: 1970
• USA: 1970[144]
• Iran: 1974
• Nigeria: 1979
• Tobago: 1981[145]
• Egypt: 1987[146]
• Russia: an artificial peak occurred in 1987 shortly before the Collapse of the Soviet Union, but production subsequently recovered, making Russia the second largest oil exporter in the world. Figures from early 2008, statements by officials, and analysis suggest that production may have peaked in 2006/2007.[147][148]
• France: 1988
• Indonesia: 1991[149]
• Syria: 1996 [150]
• India: 1997
• New Zealand: 1997[151]
• UK: 1999
• Norway: 2000[152]
• Oman: 2000[153]
• Mexico: 2003
• Australia (disputed): 2004; 2001

Peak oil production has not been reached in the following nations (these numbers are estimates and subject to revision):[154]

• Iraq: 2018
• Kuwait: 2013
• Saudi Arabia: 2014

In addition, the most recent International Energy Agency and US Energy Information Administration production data show record and rising production in Canada and China.
The amount of oil discovered each year peaked in the mid 1960's at around 55 Gb/year, and has been falling steadily since then (in 2004/2005 it was about 12 Gb/year).[40] Reserves in effect peaked in 1980, when production first surpassed new discoveries. Because of world population growth, oil production per capita peaked in 1979 (preceded by a plateau during the period of 1973-1979).[20]
Hubbert's curve has also been used to describe the peak production of other non-renewable resources, such as natural gas, coal, uranium, metals, and even renewable resources like water and fish

 

Increasing refinery and drilling capacity is much like a larger straw for you soft drink. The extra efficiency at extraction and processing just means we run out faster.

 

Not so. Oil shale recovery was going to be a major force in western Colorado. Entire towns grew from nothing; ancillary business boomed. Then oil shale people discovered they couldn't get the oil from the shale at anything near the cost of drilling. Everything dried up and blew away. Congress had nothing to do with it. Can oil shale efforts be revived? Possibly. Will it be economically worth it? I don't know.

 

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If the purchase of Oil Futures was limited to those companies who would actually take delivery of the oil and not permit speculators to buy the futures, the price of oil would plummet.
PJ

 

There will never be a shortage. The issue is that the worlwide demand is so high and these oil companies can only drill so much per day. Supply vs demand folks.

I listened to Bob Davis this morning on our local radio and he had Ed Wallace on his show. I found it to be very interesting.
Link- Fasten Your Seatbelts It’s Going to Be a Bumpy Ride | Ed Wallace | Star-Telegram.com

 

So you are saying we have a never ending supply of oil? lol

 

could it be the banks lost big time on the mortgage fiasco so they start buying megaloads of oil futures at inflated prices. The speculation zooms the bbl price. They then sell and capture the profit and do it again.

we are paying for all those bad mortgages maybe?

 

For some, welcome to the five stages of grief:

1. Denial - SUV good
2. Anger - <scapegoat of choice> is doing it
3. Bargaining - use it or lose it, oil leases, even-odd gas days
4. Depression - SUV bad
5. Acceptance - Prius, plug-in, bicycle

I grew up in Oklahoma and went to sleep hearing the sound of oil wells pumping at night. But I always knew it wouldn't, it couldn't last. You don't 'grow' petroleum in ordinary life-times.

We've learned how to convert petroleum into food by making fertilizer and mechanizing agriculture. Petroleum sets the price of food but we still don't grow petroleum.

The Second Law of Thermodynamics is that entropy always increases. This means we have a challenge to trick as much useful work from every drop of petroleum as we can ... until it is gone ... but it will be gone.

So where do we go next?

I prefer co-generation, the ability to use a hybrid to make electrical and heat energy to run the house. Fed by dwindling supplies of natural gas, these portable power stations provide quality of life as we burn up the last of the petroleum.

Bob Wilson

 

isn't that a very unAmerican thing to say? What about free enterprise?
It's the thin end of the wedge, first its free trading of oil on the futures market next thing you know the government takes your right to carry a gun and drive a truck to work.

 

Is that Ed Wallace from Wallace and Grommet?

Remind me, why are you here?

 

combination of rising worldwide demand, especially fueled by China and India, with flat worldwide production and Democrats and radical environmentalists blocking so much domestic and off-shore drilling.

=


higher prices


any questions?

 

Further drilling, faster extraction, lower prices, higher consumption, = sooner oil runs out, then what?



Any questions?

Remember the radical environmetalist of yesterday is pretty well main stream now.

 

You are in Florida, sounds like you are a Republican, why have YOUR Republicans been blocking drilling off of YOUR coast? Daddy Bush (Republican) banned drilling by PRESIDENTIAL decree, Jeb Bush (Republican) fought tooth and nail to prevent drilling, Crist (Republican) said he didn't have a problem with drilling, as long as it was in Texas. Seems like there is your problem, not those mean old Democrats and environmentalists.

The problem now is not supply, its entirely fabricated, by three enities, government, the oil companies and speculators. The problem started with instability in the Middle East, created by Iraq and the spending associated with it, then moved on to refining capacity, which the oil companies fabricated, and then moved on to investment banking speculators. Throw in the housing bubble explosion and boom, you got what you got.