Featured January 2016 Dashboard - summary to follow

Yikes its ugly. Down to a take rate in january of 1.84% in 2016, vs 2.21% in 2015, 2.73% in 2014, and 3.33% in 2013. The only bright spots are the toyota/lexus hybrid SUVs the Rav4/NXh sold 2218 versus 163 when only the nxh was available in january 2015. The bigger older brother hihy/RXh sold 1165 versus a dismall 789 in 2015. The smaller hybrid pond is good for toyota's market share and it is up over 75% a big just from 2013. Still I'm sure they would rather have sold more cars with a more competitive market that they had back then.

 

Japan January 2016 Sales

#1 Prius Toyota - 21,036
#2 Aqua Toyota - 12,720
#3 Sienta Toyota - 9,814
#4 Note Nissan - 8,335
#5 Fit Honda - 7,291
#6 Demio Mazda - 6,947
#7 Voxy Toyota - 6,699
#8 Serena Nissan - 5,738
#9 Corolla Toyota - 5,734
#10 Vezel Honda - 5,584

 

no snow compared to 2015. we're in the middle of another 3-5" 'duster'.

the poor weather channel people are roaming the country trying to hype every snowflake they can find.

 

That doesn't explain the take rate or why auto sales did fine.

Low gas prices may have moved people from efficient cars to crossovers and SUVs
January 2016 U.S. SUV And Crossover Sales Rankings - Top 97 Best-Selling SUVs In America - Every SUV Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR
The segment grew 6.4% as hybrids fell 17.2% from january a year earlier. Rav4 and nissan rogue led the pack. I doubt its snow, that happens all the time in january and was worse last year, and it didn't keep people out of dealerships. Low gas and more desirable designs have to be the reason.

Rav4 hybrid did alright, but it many is fighting a diminished field of hybrids and it had less than a 10% take rate. That won't turn hybrid sales around.

 

FEBRUARY 2016 has reportedly been HOT month for car sales!
Let's see how Gen4 Prius does, although I don't know if enough Gen4 vehicles were out there yet.
Looks like Feb/Superbowl was good timing for Gen4 launch though.

 

Good time for the launch would have been october. Not much avilablity right now. Nation wide availablity in april is likely which means people will report good summer mpg. Stil they missed the best selling months. I expect higher sales than the dismal 2015 ones, but I don't think we will be back near high liftback sales this year.

 

Toyota's February 2016 Sales Chart; TMS_Feb_2016_sales_chart.pdf

 

Interpretation? Slower Prius sales than might be expected? note c,v really off I think (off course PiP too). Maybe artifact of 2016 still getting out to dealers as far as LB. Looks like LB will need to shine otherwise c,v really off big despite high car sales..

...are c,v off due to supply issues or just slow sales? Or the new Gen4 LB stealing sales?

 

The prius v is dated comapred to the camry hybrid, fusion hybrid, sonata hybrid, rav4 hybrid and station wagon off a 7 year old design (gen III prius) isn't going sell well.

prius c (aqua) still sells well in japan, but its down as its not as shiny as the gen IV prius. I think lack of availability of the gen IV may send people to buy other cars instead of stay waiting.

Mirai has leased 56 so far this year.

On plug-ins
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
Tesla and Chevy did well. Nissan is hurting but probably only until the gen II. BMW is the surpise bad performer. February looks like it will be bellow 2014, with bmw not making up for the missing prius phv. 2014 gets much easier to beat at the end of the year. It should be easy, but bad i3 sales, with low inventory is a bad surprise.

 

Those are a nice stop-gap, but they aren't the second gen.
Nissan has been very tight lipped about the second gen, with a few mentions of 150-200 mile ranges.

 

Numbers say people are waiting. Ford had a blow out month to make up for the bad bmw numbers. 7881 compared to 7030 in 2014. Its going to be a good year. volt should have national inventory of the 2017 volt, with tesla pushing out S and X to make the quarters numbers. Hopefully bmw picks up some slack. Low gas prices don't seem to be denting plug-ins.

 

doesn't seem like much of a bump for tesla, is that what they forecast?

i read today they are having supply problems?

 

OK good point I see now RAV4 Hybrid (abbrev R4H?) sold 4400 units stealing from v.

OK so if you add Prius + R4H not too shabby for Jan/Feb

 

Article from a known short. They predicted doom for Tesla back in 2013 as well.

Ramp up for the X is ongoing.

 

right. they just lie about anything to get followers?

 

I'm not sure if they door not.

All I'm saying is that they have sung this song before, and been wrong before.
Could they be right this time? Sure they could, but I don't think so. We will find out by the end of the year.