Late season: Stena Polaris tanker

The current ice cover along the Northeast passage looks pretty good and there are press releases about the Stena Polaris:

Source: Arirang News
Interesting sources:

• Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions - enter Stena Polaris to track progress
• NSR - Ice Concentration | Northern Sea Route Information Office - track ice cover, Russian service
• Daily AMSR2 sea ice maps - EU ice coverage (not shutdown!)
• Cryosphere Today - Northern Hemisphere Cryosphere Animation - USA based Arctic ice coverage
• Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag - USA National Snow and Ice Data Center
• SVS Animation 4104 - 2013 Daily Arctic Sea Ice from AMSR2: May - September 2013 - USA Goddard Space Flight animation

In one respect, this is a riskier trip because the Arctic ice coverage should be at a minimum. By the time this ship reaches the Northeast passage, ice coverage will be increasing. But this is an ice breaker tanker, 4,000 tons, well equipped for the worst conditions. Still no guarantees.

Both Arctic trips provide bookends on either side of the Arctic ice minimum. They define a practical limit for ships taking that route. Going through during the ice minimum is the least risky but not useful for mapping the Arctic shipping window.

Bob Wilson

 

After one intermediate stop, perhaps to pickup arctic trained or experienced crew members, the Stena Polaris is at 12.8 kt, 320 degrees. It looks like the race is on to the Northeast passage before ice closes off the 2013 season.

Sept 20 Arctic ice data suggests this is the minimum. Given the speed and distance, the Stena Polaris race against the season sailing window is on. The last position was West of Bergen Norway, about two hours ago. There may be 'dead zones' where the ship tracking, AIS does not work well. Within a few hours, it should be near Alesund and we'll see if the track is to the Northeast.

Early Sept 22 morning, Stena Polaris was about 40 km West of Norway at 10.9 kt, 25 degrees, an angle between North and the Norway coast angle. Since then, it has been out of AIS range. The Northern Russian coast does not appear to have AIS reporting. We may not hear from the Stena Polaris until reaches the Bering Sea and the Alaskan stations a week or so from now.

Sept 25 evening, Stena Polaris is off of Kirkenes Norway, 10.6 kn /54 degrees.

Sept 26, Nordic Orion is off the Southeast coast of Greenland after taking the Northwest passage.

BTW, there are announced these bulk carriers, NS Yakutia and Nordic Orion, planning to use Arctic passage this season. The last known location of Nordic Orion was North by NorthWest off Alaska.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5
0	[th]speed kt[th]days[th]source
1	[tr][td2]14[td2]8[td]Cape Zhelaniya to Bering Strait
2	[tr][td2]10[td2]12[td]Cape Zhelaniya to Bering Strait
3	[tr][td2]7[td2]16[td]Cape Zhelaniya to Bering Strait
4	[tr][td2]-[td2]-[td]-
5	[tr][td2]?[td2]?[td]Nordic Orion	completed NW passage	12.9 max/7.9 avg
6	[tr][td2]09/19[td2]?[td]NS Yakutia	NE in progress	E->W	6.7 max / 5.8 avg
7	[tr][td2]09/19[td2]?[td]Arctic Aurora	NE in progress	W->E	10 max / 9 avg
8	[tr][td2]09/19[td2]?[td]Mari Ugland	NE in progress	W->E	8.1 max / 7.6 avg
9	[tr][td2]09/25[td2]?[td]Stena Polaris	NE in progress	W->E	12.7 max / 11.6 avg

Source: http://www.arctic-lio.com/docs/nsr/transits/Transits_2013_30Sept.pdf

Stena Polaris location, 09/30:


Awesome blog: Stena Polaris position

Bob Wilson
CryoSat-2CryoSat-2

 

The Stena Polaris has passengers and one is keeping a running blog:
Stena Polaris position



Sailing is not without risk, especially Arctic shipping. Still, it is working . . . so far.

They are about half-way across, in distance, but the remaining half will be 3/4ths of the work. The season is closing in and winds are likely to blow a lot of ice into the East Siberian Sea . . . the last leg.

Bob Wilson

 

NORDIC ORION at anchor

After completing the NorthWest (i.e., Canadian) passage, it is waiting a pilot and berth to offload ~40,000 tons of Canadian coal. By taking the NorthWest passage, they apparently got 'free' (?) Canadian icebreaker support. Regardless, they made it which avoided the Panama canal which meant having offload or underload 25% of their load: Freighter Makes First-Of-Its-Kind Transit Of Northwest Passage : The Two-Way : NPR

NorthEast Passage Headed East: Stena Polaris, Mari Ugland, Arctic Aurora

While following the daily blog from the Stena Polaris, I learned two other ships are in the general area headed towards the last leg, the Siberian Sea, and the Bering Straits. The Russians have been developing this shipping route and have nuclear powered, ice breakers that shuttle ships through two choke points, the island groups off the Arctic coast of Russia. The Stena Polaris blog gives an excellent write-up of what shipping is like on this route:

Source: Here she comes!

I've been following the Stena Polaris blog as a daily serial and found it fascinating. It includes all aspects of shipboard life as a passenger on a freighter. If I had the option, I would take passage on this route.

Bob Wilson

 

Stena Polaris sailing on the Northeast Passage is entering the Bering Straits, their voyage is almost over:


The Nordic Orion that used the Northwest Passage has moved from anchorage to port:


Looking at the European ice coverage chart, the first year's ice coverage is rapidly closing off the two choke points. Russia operates two sets of nuclear powered ice breakers to convoy shipping but soon enough this thin ice cover will be thick enough to stop the season:


There are at least three other vessels enroute but still beyond shore based AIS tracking. But we're starting to see the beginning of commercial Arctic shipping. A single year does not a trend make but this has been going on since 2010.

Bob Wilson

 

Thanks to the Europeans, we can see the first year ice is rapidly forming and closing down the Northeast shipping.



Ice can put a hole in a ship as it did the "Nordvik" a month ago. This ship violated the rules but was patched with concrete and now out of the area. According to the specs, the ice breakers can handle over 2m of ice at 1-2 kn. But compression is the bigger risk and with the return of new sea ice, even an ice breaker can't keep the lane open.

So here are the seasonal shipping records:

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
0	[th]year[th]ships[th]tonnage
1	[tr][td2]2011[td2]41[td2]unknown (*)
2	[tr][td2]2012[td2]46[td2]1	261	545
3	[tr][td2]2013[td2]40[td2]997	358

Source: http://www.arctic-lio.com/docs/nsr/transits/Transits_2012.pdf
Not included is the Northwest passage of the Nordic Orion, 40,000 tons of Vancouver coal

In 2012, Russia passed a law setting the terms and conditions for the Northwest passage and establishing tariffs. Ranging from ~300-3,000 ruples per ton based upon the type of cargo, these are the maximums. Apparently there is some flexibility in the actual tariff per ship.

So yesterday evening, I was having a beer and some guy at the other end of the bar started spouting off that '10 years of Michigan weather was cooler so there is no global warming.' And told him about '1 million tons of shipping through the Arctic this year which had started in 2011.' Later, one of the other patrons came by and thanked me for standing up to the global warming denier. Guess I'll have to carry "Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis" in the car when next I have a beer.

Bob Wilson