Lexus EV conspiracy theories

Discussion in 'EV (Electric Vehicle) Discussion' started by hkmb, Sep 6, 2021.

  1. dbstoo

    dbstoo Active Member

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    Hell, it's a conspiracy thread, for goodness sakes! There's not a thread of substantial evidence to support anything said in the rest of the posts. Why start now? :)

    And, of course, my favorite so far;
    It's my favorite because of all the trolling posts that said a 300 mile range was fine because you are going to stop for a break every couple hours and you could recharge while peeing. Yes, the pause that refreshes now recharges too! LOL

    Which, of course is a classic case of swapping sides to make a point. That tends to support the assertion that the most prolific posters here have a financial incentive to bash the Toyota products.

    But that would be such a stretch, and we wouldn't want unfounded assertions in this thread, now would we?
     
  2. hkmb

    hkmb Senior Member

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    Yes, that's the only sort of model that I can think would justify the UX300e.

    Even then, as you say, I think there's a limit to the data Lexus could gain, beyond "80% of respondents said a satnav with mapping to available chargers would have been nice, and 80% said that more range would be good. The other 20% didn't make it to the focus group meeting because they got lost or ran out of electricity."

    Lexus doesn't manufacture in the UK. But all the rivals I mentioned - the Q4 E-tron, EQA/EQB, Enyaq, Ioniq 5, EV6, Mach E, Model 3 etc - would be imported too, so the price comparison is a direct one.

    As far as EVs made in Britain are concerned, I think there's only the Jaguar i-Pace and Nissan Leaf. Oh, and I think some London Taxi EVs are made in Britain too. Nissan will make Ariyas in Britain too.

    It starts from RMB362,000 (US$56,000).

    For comparison, a Model 3 starts at RMB235,900, and a VW ID.4 starts at RMB239,900. A Polestar 2 starts at RMB252,800. The obvious rivals - the Q4 e-tron and EQA - don't seem to be out in China yet, but I'd be surprised if they come it at much more than RMB320,000.

    So the UX300e is disastrously expensive in China too.
     
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  3. hkmb

    hkmb Senior Member

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    Gosh, where to start?

    Well, as Trollbait helpfully points out, this Japanese car is perhaps surprisingly, not only being sold in England.

    But even in little old England, this range is inadequate.

    In winter, in England, the real-world range for this car is going to be around 120 miles. England, end-to-end, is 550 miles.

    We're in lockdown in my part of Australia at the moment, so I've been doing a lot of primary-school home learning with my daughter, including long division, which I hate. So I know that with a range of 120 miles, you'd need to do three 0-100% charges and a 0-58% charge. (This is assuming the chargers are in just the right place, that CHAdeMO is available and that YOU CAN FIND THEM WITH NO EV-SPECIFIC SATNAV.) Or, if you're starting from full, five 10-80% charges. At its fastest charging speed of 75 minutes for a 10-80% charge, that means you're looking at 6 hours and 15 minutes of charging on what would otherwise be a 9 hour 25 minute drive.

    To do the same journey in an Ioniq 5 (cheaper than the UX, and bigger), you'd need to recharge twice, for 18 minutes each time if you can find the 350kW chargers. That's 36 minutes. At worst, you'd need to spend about 75 minutes in total for charging. In most VW Group or Ford EVs, you'd be looking at about two hours in total for charging.

    That's a huge difference for the Lexus: it's adding more than four hours to a typical EV's trip on the same route. Like I said in my first post, this sort of range works for a city EV like a Fiat 500 or a Honda E, but not for a luxury SUV.

    Oh, and Scotland hasn't achieved independence yet. So until about 2025, it's actually 837 miles from one end of the country to the other.

    I know!

    That was my point!

    Why didn't they use some decent-sized batteries in their own car?

    Hard to believe, I know, but other countries have rules too.

    Mmm.
     
  4. hkmb

    hkmb Senior Member

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    Sorry, just going back to the primary-school maths thing again....

    This 300-mile WLTP range that's fine.... Is that more or less than the UX's 197-mile WLTP range which you seem to be suggesting is just as good?

    We do metric here, so maybe I'm confused and miles are like negative or something.
     
  5. dbstoo

    dbstoo Active Member

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    You will have to ask someone else. I never said that either of them are necessarily satisfactory. I was just repeating the arguments that others (some of whom are posting to this thread) have put forth.

    As I've said many times, I primarily travel locally, and the 25-30 mile range of the Prime works great for me. I also have 1 or 2 long distance trips each month (a thousand miles each), and the hybrid mode is the most expeditious way to make the trip.
     
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    We agree.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  7. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    A couple of things.
    • That 300 mile BEV was a range under the EPA tests, which would be about 336 miles under WLTP. This Lexus EPA rating would be around 176 miles.
    • That 300 mile BEV could charge up to 80% in 20 to 30 minutes at chargers capable of speeds of a Supercharger. It would be under 20 minutes for a newer BEV that can charge at 350kW. The UX300e will take at least an hour because it is limited to 50kW.
    • All I know about the UX's cooling system is that it is fan/blower cooled. Like the Leaf, multiple fast chargings on a single trip at its highest rate may not be possible because of heat level of the battery.
    Where in this thread have people made unverified claims about the UX300e's price or specs?

    If the only evidence for the Bolt being sold below cost is large incentives, the Prius Prime is being sold at a lost by Toyota too.
     
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  8. hkmb

    hkmb Senior Member

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    Yes, but that's really not the issue. We're not talking about BEVs vs PHEVs. I'm asking why Lexus would release a BEV that is so inferior to all of its rival BEVs in so many ways - price, range, charging speed, space, equipment and so on.

    If they want to stick with PHEVs, fine. But why release a BEV that cannot compete with rival BEVs?
     
  9. dbstoo

    dbstoo Active Member

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    As someone already said... This might be a test to see if it can compete. Lexus has a strong following, so there may be a market for it.
     
  10. hkmb

    hkmb Senior Member

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    I can see the argument for a strong following. I can even understand the idea of someone buying something slightly inferior just because they like it: lots of people have iPhones, after all.

    I'd even do that myself: I'm looking at getting an EV early next year - most good EV models are not available in Australia now, but will be by early next year - and I'm seriously considering an EQB even though I know that range, space and charging speeds are not up to Korean standards, just because I really like the interior and because I've had good experiences with Mercs in the past.

    But those inferiorities are marginal. In the case of the UX300e, the difference between it and its rivals on every metric is enormous. It'd take a hell of a lot of brand loyalty for people to choose it over its competitors, and I think the risk of long-term damage to the brand is greater than the benefits that might come from any test.
     
  11. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Anecdotal observation is how narratives thrive.

    Think about how Toyota does things on their own schedule their own way. They tend to be subtle too. You have to really watch the big picture to notice when a stage is being set or an opportunity taken. In this case, consider where the UX300e is being made available and how. All you get from the video is perspective on a single market rollout, one within Europe.

    Look at the market in China. There are 37 automakers and quite a number of battery manufacturers. There are also different chemistries and different license arrangements. For Toyota, we know for a fact they are supplied by a company that has been making more advanced batteries for years now. But distribution was restricted to China. We also know that UX300e is a secondary offering, one that leverages knowledge gain from the BEV models of Izoa & C-HR. There's nothing stopping Toyota from using this newest model as a testbed for chemistry comparison. Think about how convenient that would to slip in LFP cells instead, starting with China. That real-world data would be absolutely priceless so far ahead of bZ4X... which we already know will use a new chemistry.

    In other words, what seems to be 5-10 years behind may be quite the opposite. With no one was paying close attention, Toyota can race ahead.
     
  12. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Every metric for whom? Think about what ordinary consumers want, what they consider important. LFP reduces cost, reduces fire risk, increases heat resistance, and increases cycle-life. The tradeoff is loss of range... but that is the only trait which can be compensated for in a variety of ways... like improved efficiency, which is something else Toyota has been hinting at.

    Put another way, aren't those long-term goals? It basically looks like people would prefer Toyota play it safe rather than take risks. I find that incredibly ironic.
     
  13. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    LFP(lithium iron phosphate) batteries aren't a new thing. They are a pretty established technology that Chinese EV makers have been using for years. The standard range Model 3 uses them in China, and we will likely see Tesla use them in other markets. The possibility that Toyota might use them isn't exactly an example of Toyota looking forward.

    Cost, fire safety, and lifespan are good advantages to LFP, but the lower energy density is a big disadvantage, as longer range is important at this point in time for the market. CATL has packaged their LFP to reduce the energy density issue. It is their battery in the Chinese Model 3 SR, which has a range near what Li-ion version is rated. That is only possible because the car was designed to hold a Li-ion pack for the long range Model 3.

    In other words, the short range LFP pack is the same size as the long range Li-ion pack. The difference in range is about a 25% loss to the long range model. Slipping a LFP pack into the UX300e will mean a WLTP range of under 150 miles. The UX's price should drop, but since that has started out uncompetitive against longer range cars, it will likely remain so.
     
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  14. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Toyota doing that in China was the point.

    Availability in Europe was not part of this. Remember the discussion of collecting data. Having such a basis of comparison is priceless.
     
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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  16. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    The narrative of "slow" comes from those who believe their is only a single path to the goal.
     
  17. hkmb

    hkmb Senior Member

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    At the risk of taking this into politics, I have a parallel to draw. To try to keep it out of politics, I shall avoid naming the countries, and just call them A and C

    In the course of my job, I sometimes have to explain A domestic and international politics to senior people in the C government.

    Over the past two years, A foreign policy in our region has been increasingly bizarre, and C officials have struggled to understand what the A Prime Minister is doing. Each move he makes seems to damage A's economic and geopolitical interests, and there doesn't seem to be any benefit to A in the short, medium or long term. Several C officials have speculated that he is playing some sort of complex three-dimensional chess, and that this is all part of a brilliant long-term plan that is just too clever for them to understand. They think that this might be because they don't understand the more complex points of democracy, or how different democracies interact with each other.

    I have had to explain to them that the A Prime Minister is a failed marketing manager who was fired from his last job and fell into politics, and who became Prime Minister by accident in what the people of A call a Steven Bradbury Moment. He doesn't understand geopolitics, doesn't understand foreign politics, and doesn't understand foreign culture. In particular, he doesn't understand Asia, and doesn't understand one-Party states or the politics or culture of C. I also have to explain to them that, while it takes a degree of intelligence and cunning to reach senior positions in the C government, this is not the case in the A government.

    When the A Prime Minister makes moves that seem bizarre and stupid, this is not because he is a genius with a master plan. It is because the moves are bizarre and stupid, because he does not know what he is doing.

    Looking at the UX300e, I think we might be in a similar position. It might look like some clever move as part of an ingenious plan to wrong-foot the opposition, but there is every chance that it's just stupid.

    Sometimes there isn't a bigger picture to watch. Sometimes the disappointing small picture is all there is.

    Yes, but they're selling it in Europe. And in China. And in both places, they're doing it with only one battery chemistry.

    Again, it seems that there is no bigger picture here. Unless it's the one I mentioned people speculating about in my original post.
     
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  18. hkmb

    hkmb Senior Member

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    Consumers.

    Range.
    Charging speed.
    Equipment.
    Space.
    Price.
    Reliability.
    Longevity.

    The UX300e is likely to do well on the last two metrics, but only on them. Whether it beats Korean, European, Chinese and American EV rivals on those two metrics remains to be seen.

    But the most obvious way to compensate for loss of range is with high charging speeds. The UX300e offers a combination of an exceptionally short range and exceptionally slow charging.

    ....but it is not offering that in this car.
     
  19. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    The low charging speeds are likely because the battery pack is air cooled. Even with blowers, removing the heat from faster charging becomes difficult. Even with the more expensive, heat resistant batteries in place, there is a limit to how hot the pack can get without being damaged. Air cooled packs are also bulkier.

    While LFP batteries are heat tolerant, the ones going into EVs are using liquid thermal control to get the best performance out of them.
     
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  20. hkmb

    hkmb Senior Member

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    Here's a head-to-head test of the UX300e against the electric version of the Volvo XC40.

    I can't say either of them appeal to me particularly, but it's interesting to see how they compare.

    New Lexus UX 300e vs new Volvo XC40 Recharge Pure Electric | What Car?

    It does seem that the UX offers more miles per kWh than the XC40.
     
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