Model 3 current and projected production

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by el Crucero, Jul 9, 2018.

  1. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    I have started a new thread because it is indicative of how data can be presented in a misleading manner, especially to those who are not enamored and fascinated with numbers and statistics.

    I have no argument with the data points in @bwilson4web chart above. They are accurate and consistent with public filings. Where I take issue is the manner in which the data are presented. Bob uses, a chart format that is logarithmic. This technique is often useful to truncate chart size for those who are experienced in interpreting logarithmic charts. However, this causes the data to be skewed in a misleading manner especially for those who are not experienced in interpreting these charts. If you look at the blue line in Bob's chart, it appears that production of the model 3 has tapered off and is growing at a declining rate. That is simply no true.

    i have created a similar chart that is based on linear geometric display of the data. This gives a more accurate picture of the model 3 production curve. Compare Bob's blue line (called a frown curve) to the blue line on my chart (called a smiley curve). Model 3 production is indeed ramping up and at an accelerating pace. This gives a more accurate depiction of what is happening with model 3 production.

    Additionally, I have projected production for a year to June 30, 2019. That is indicated by the dashed red line. I have based my guesstimates on
    • Elon's assurances that production will increase to 6000 cars per week by the end of July, 2018
    • Elon's prediction that model 3 production will hit 10,000 cars per week sometime in 2019. I arbitrarily picked the mid-point of June 30, 2019
    • Elon said earlier this year that the current backlog of ~400K worldwide reservations would be cleared by the end of 2019
    • Elon referred to the "S" curve of production - starting relatively slowly for the first year (7/17 - 6/18), then ramping up rapidly in the second year (7/18 - 6/19) and then holding steady in the third year and beyond.
    • The black line on my chart is a trend line determined by an esoteric calculus principle called linear regression analysis and it fits nicely with my hypothesis.
    My chart attached:

    Now you may take issue with my future projection and that is fair because it is based on a "best case" scenario. This scenario supposes that additional production facilities will be added in the US or overseas, that model Y, introduced in 2019, will not cannibalize model 3 sales, and Elon can keep all the balls in the air. But I don't see how you can disagree that current model 3 production is increasing at an increasing rate.
     

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    #1 el Crucero, Jul 9, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2018
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    does it really matter? maybe to potential investors. otherwise, it is what it is.
     
  3. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    Yes, just clearing up some FUD.
     
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  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i didn't see it that way, because i was looking at numbers, not the smiles and frowns. but i've never been a graph guy.
     
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Sharing the numbers:
    Quarter Model 3/Total Model 3/Q
    1 7 0 0
    2 8 222 222
    3 9 1764 1542
    4 10 9724 8182
    5 11 36760 28578
    6 12 99632 62872

    My expectation is Tesla is shooting for a quarterly production rate around 65,000 +/- 5,000. With 70,000 per quarter, 280,000 units per year, Tesla will easily handle the backlog of orders in two years. The revenue stream will be enough to fund future products as the Model 3 sales taper down.

    The 12th quarter will let us know more about the planned production capacity. I've made an assumption that production can more than double, 2.2x, from tuning the existing production lines . . . possibly another paint cell. The key is to build out what is needed and no more.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #5 bwilson4web, Jul 9, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2018
  6. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    Your projected number is essentially the same as mine for the end of Q3/18
    As I said, your guess is as good as mine, particularly since mine is based on a 'best case' scenario. I believe that Elon will put up more tent structures to increase ultimate production at Fremont to about 500K units a year. I believe that this will happen sometime in 2019. The key to tent structures is that they are relatively inexpensive, quick to install, and with a projected lifespan of 20/25 years.

    I agree that Q3/18 and Q4/18 final numbers will be epic in establishing Tesla as an automaker to take seriously by the industry and the public. It bears repeating that Elon really doesn't want to be in the auto business (I think his passion is space exploration), he just wants to show the legacy automakers that BEVs are the FUTURE to environmental sustainability and environmental protection. I hope Toyota gets into the game sooner rather than later. Perhaps they would be interested in purchasing Tesla in the not too distant future. o_O
     
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    If Tesla achieves ~170,000 by the end of 2018 that would be ~1% of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).

    Now if you really want to see a 'feeding frenzy,' Musk should announce he is looking for a second, USA factory.

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    The second factory will be in China, as just announced.
    I expect the third will be in Europe.
    I have heard no mention of where the fourth factory will be. I would not be surprised to see it in the US, although my first guess would be another in China.
     
  9. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    Yesterday, Tuesday, Elon signed a deal with the Chinese government to build an Bev factory in Shanghai. Elon said that China is the biggest market in the world for near term BEV demand. This factory will allow him to sidestep the self-destructive foreign trade policy by the current administration, reduce transportation costs to Asian markets (China, India, and Japan), and provide access to new subcontractors in Asia. He said that manufacturing is expected to start in two years, Elon time (for you naysayers, figure three years).

    He went on to say yesterday that he expects to sign a deal for a European BEV factory (probably in Germany) sometime next year.

    Now if the legacy automakers jump on the BEV bandwagon in earnest, and build their own supercharger network, we will really see a feeding frenzy!
     
  10. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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  11. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Um, of those "electrified" vehicles, only 51,000 were cars that could be powered by energy from the electric grid. Minus the 2,700 Mirai, the rest are just advanced, gasoline powered cars.

    Toyota isn't in the game.

    And some people looking at a graph don't check the numbers, and the frowny curve could be seen by them as slowing down or plateauing.
     
    #11 Trollbait, Jul 11, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2018
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  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    sad to hear. i wouldn't want to make an investment without looking at the numbers.
     
  13. vinnie97

    vinnie97 Whatever Works

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  14. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    Or accurate.
     
  15. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    How is this misleading. I did not write it, this is from Toyota. How is It any less accurate then a Musk press releases??
     
  16. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    That is like me saying: "I am going to get more exercise in the next three years. Last year, I walked an additional 10 feet which I projected for three years from now." It is misleading and nonsensical.

    For example, Toyota has sold 5,300 Mirai in the last 3 years - 2100 in Japan, 2900 in the US, and 200 in Europe. That is a very low bar for an "Environmental Challenge."
     
  17. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    #17 orenji, Jul 12, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2018
  18. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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  19. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Projection are guesses. Nothing misleading. Because if you think it is then everything projected from Tesla is misleading.
     
  20. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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