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Money for satellites, and for other research

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Dec 30, 2016.

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  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    US Federal funding for Earth system science is now about $2.5 billions/year. 'Look-down' satellites are constitute much of that, but frustratingly, it seems hard to say how much.

    Such satellites do a lot more than climate research - they inform weather forecasts, floods, crop yields, and many others. Our recent examination of OCO2 satellite indicates ~$460 million lifetime cost. The entire look-down fleet number 20 (or 30?) and cost ???

    One way to sort this out would be to separate satellites from 'ground-based' research. Would take us a first step beyond 'climate scientists are getting rich'. We ought not be stuck on silly. Separate the satellites from ground research. Then talk about value derived from each.

    If anyone can provide accurate numbers, let's start there.
     
    #1 tochatihu, Dec 30, 2016
  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    There is no simple rule of thumb as there are capital costs versus operational:
    • Capital - primarily the satellite ~2x the launch. Launch typically $50-70m. So we're looking at ~$210m just to get it up, checked out, and ready for operations. But there are significant variables such as 'existing series' or 'new instrument.'
    • Operational - staff to manage the satellite and collect the data. A reasonable number, ~20 heads, with salaries ~$100-250k/year. Double that again if there are civil servant and/or contractors handling data analysis and reduction, $5-10m per year for the duration of mission. Typical mission durations are ~10 years.
    Satellites are designed for a controlled, final plunge. The most wasteful way to shutdown the programs, deorbit the satellites. Now some missions have international partners who also have a vote. Regardless, natural law works even if there were no satellites.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #2 bwilson4web, Dec 31, 2016
  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    OK, suppose you were obliged to put lifetime cost numbers on A-train birds, GEOS birds, and the rest of the look-down fleet. Is OCO2 $460 million typical or not? An 'I'm not quite sure' guess would be admissible, because dang I can't find 'official' numbers.

    Clarity would be most welcome here because of possible upcoming US governmental reduced interest in looking down from Earth orbit.

    So kind of BobW to take a first shot at this. I'd never ask (expect) mojo to support AMSU (Aqua) cost, even though he holds those proxies in higher esteem than all thermometers on earth's surface. Strange times we live in.
     
    #3 tochatihu, Dec 31, 2016
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Wow- program leaders getting a quarter of a mill? That is like second-tier college sports coaches. Somehow though, I imagine that lower staff cost more in aggregate.

    My prior rough guess is that satellites are 2/3 of Earth system science costs. Remaining 1/3 grants go half to University 'indirect costs. Most of remainder split between equipment and paying grad students. Dis-esteemed professors can harvest a month or two of annual salary for themselves.

    If one of you can buy a second summer home or Ferrari with that, well, you are pretty darn clever.
     
    #4 tochatihu, Dec 31, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2016
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Somehow we never figured out how to make persistent orbital platforms (like ISS, the most expensive thing ever built) play substantial roles in earth observation. Not you fault though, Bob, I am sure. Carry on. Happy New Year.
     
    #5 tochatihu, Dec 31, 2016
  6. KennyGS

    KennyGS Senior Member

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    #6 KennyGS, Dec 31, 2016
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    It varies but I was trying to include the extras like health, life insurance, and various taxes. But what we call program managers have other compensations that regular employees don't see: stock and incentive pay. Those folks are typically going to be nearly double again, $500k easily.

    In fairness, these numbers come from the mid 1980s when GE employees also had pensions. As a hiring manager, I was sent to various training courses and had insights to real program management and project costs.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #7 bwilson4web, Dec 31, 2016
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    And Happy New Year to you too! I understand the Chinese New Year, a lunar based year, is exceptional. <GRINS>

    As for manned versus unmanned missions, I prefer robot systems and only short-term, human missions to effect repairs to existing satellite systems. The Hubble repair mission being a notable success. Sad to say, the 'space tug' that would snag and bring high orbit satellites to manned level was canceled. That was such a good idea as moving between orbits is much more energy efficient than getting them from the surface to any orbit.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #8 bwilson4web, Dec 31, 2016
  9. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Strange you believe surface thermometers which give Gavin Schmidt hot readings in Africa where no thermometers even report.Yet those regions are hot enough to skew the entire worlds average.While satellites show no temperature increase in those unreported regions.
    Flat out fraud from GISS.Good riddens Gavin .
     
    #9 mojo, Dec 31, 2016
  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    It may soon come a time when US science is obliged to say total costs of 'look-down' satellites and all other ground-based Earth science research costs. I could see benefits from that, because the former seem critically required.

    I support the latter as well, but if new voices can improve our efficiency they should be heard.

    At least half of US research grants go straight to University general funds. Reduce those and they will increase tuition; sure as tomorrow's sunrise.

    Much US-funded research has already shown (and published) that +CO2 increases plant growth. Limitations from water and other nutrient availability as well. If y'all would 'redirect' that work, make it towards higher crop yields and recognize that not everywhere will water persist in great supply. Especially where thermal-E generation strongly competes for water!

    Shutting down this whole research enterprise is spiteful, and not only because it would open the rest of world's scientists to devise profitable plans instead of US scientists.

    You have a gun, you see your foot. Now, don't shoot.
     
    #10 tochatihu, Jan 5, 2017
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    xyz
     
    #11 tochatihu, Jan 5, 2017
  12. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    it's up
     
    #12 Trollbait, Jan 5, 2017
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  13. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    NASA launches tiny satellites to measure hurricane winds - CNN.com

    Hmmmmm,
    The hardest part about getting a payload into orbit or near orbit has always been the first six inches.

    Now?
    All you need is a relatively small, solid fuel rocket and a surplus widebody airliner.
    Any country on the planet can afford both.....and it's COTS meaning Commercial Off The Shelf.

    My only problem with micro-satellites [sic] is that they're harder to track when they go dumb.
    It's a biiiiiiiiiiig sky up there, REALLY big.....but that's what they used to say about the ocean.
    Also....
    How small is a W54 warhead again? ;)
     
    #13 ETC(SS), Jan 5, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2017
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    President Trump’s discretionary budget proposal has been presented in detail. It might be premature to discuss it before Congressional revision. Anyway it would be depressing.
     
    #14 tochatihu, Mar 16, 2017
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  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    maybe the military will do some satellite research.
     
    #15 bisco, Mar 16, 2017
  16. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Interestingly, Defense Secretary Mattis is concerned about climate change as a national security threat:

    Trump&#39;s Defense Secretary Cites Climate Change as National Security Challenge - Scientific American

    However, with the EPA and Budget chiefs being uninterested, four NASA satellites relating to monitoring climate change are on the chopping block. See Earth Science block here:

    Trump&#39;s NASA Budget Eliminates Crewed Mission to Asteroid - Scientific American
     
    #16 fuzzy1, Mar 16, 2017
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    So many recent initiatives have turned to muck, not sure it makes sense to lead the charge.

    I have already moved my sources off-shore.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #17 bwilson4web, Mar 17, 2017
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    military@15. Perhaps irony here? 100-meter downward looking radio dish is not secret.
     
    #18 tochatihu, Mar 17, 2017
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    The EPA wants to know your perspectives on deregulation. Ways to comment are described here:

    Regulations.gov
     
    #19 tochatihu, Apr 19, 2017
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    There is a 2017 Omnibus spending bill, perhaps to be voted upon in Congress and Senate this week.

    In terms of science funding, it more closely resembles last year's than Trump's suggestions.

    But finally the Pres. needs to sign as well, so the matter is not entirely settled.

    One place to see science funding aspects:

    How science fares in the U.S. budget deal | Science | AAAS
     
    #20 tochatihu, May 1, 2017
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