Featured Not alone in feeling that Toyota is missing the EV-boat (article)

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by R-P, Sep 14, 2021.

  1. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    "But many researchers now consider the cobalt problem essentially solved. Manthiram and Sun “have shown that you can make really good materials without cobalt and [that] perform really well”, says Jeff Dahn, a chemist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Canada."
    -from austingreen's link
     
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  2. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    Materials *with cobalt* stink. Taking it out doesn't make it better until we have technologies for making cells we still don't have - like Lithium Sulfur.
     
  3. R-P

    R-P Active Member

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    Yes, appearantly we DO have the Lexus..., so I stand corrected. Comaring it to a Leaf, does it share something with the Leaf or was that just a gist toward the buildquality vs. the price?

    That DOES sound good. One of the reasons for getting a big battery is that it is easier to never fully charge or discharge it. Looked for a pic to prove the following statement, but couldn't find it (yet) so numbers might not be 100% accurate, but the theory is:
    A LiIon battery can be discharged e.g. 500 times. From 100% to 0%.
    But if you only use it between 80% and 30%, this number goes up to 5000 (!) times. Obviously you can only drive half the miles on a charge, but you can do it 5000 times.
    Suppose 300 miles on a charge.
    500 x 300 miles = 150k miles.
    5000 x 150 miles = 750k miles.
     
  4. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    You may be interested in this:

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    not build quality, but EV capabilities. It is similar to the Leaf in that regard, but priced higher than segment competitors with better range and charging abilities.
     
  6. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    I'm wondering what kind of investment in $ and lead time does it take to change a battery factory from one battery chemistry to another. Or from one form factor to another?
     
  7. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    I don't think it takes much for the chemistry as the nature of the battery components aren't much different. The form factor question is potential issue with solid state batteries. They may need whole new equipment for mass production.
     
  8. Richard2005

    Richard2005 Member

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    I would expect significant .. especially if you swapping the form factor. i.e. Cylindrical, prismatic, bipolar. So ideally you want to minimise your commitment to any one chemistry/form factor until you are confident it's the long term solution. I think this is one reason why Toyota are cautious .. and they can be because they have the best hybrid system supporting many and eventually all of their vehicles. Other manufacturers like VW can't wait because of their home Government's policy and also because they did not invest in hybrid and its too late to start now.
     
  9. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    I find it astounding that so many online know-it-alls either don't see that or dismiss it as unimportant. The clues that Toyota is carefully taking steps for long-term success should be obvious. Investments like Prime Planet Energy & Solutions (PPES) are the measure many times, cut once approach.
     
    #49 john1701a, Sep 18, 2021
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2021
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  10. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    I would imagine that the tricky bit with any new battery is figuring out if it is going to last ~15 years without actually spending ~15 years testing them.

    Whole thread seems like a lot of hand-wringing. Using the phrase "missing the boat" makes it feel so sudden and final, but I suspect mobility electrification is going to be a decades-long slog.
     
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  11. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    No it's not. It's called "HALT" and it's used in a great many industries. It stands for "highly accelerated life testing". In wind, we do it for blades and gearboxes, for example. It's not that hard to put 20 years worth of use on a blade in a couple of months and 20 years worth of use on a gearbox in 4-6 months. Similarly, cycling batteries for a lifetime of use can take 6 months or so, and you do it across a wide range of conditions.

    It will be, but not because of cars. Cars are by-far the easiest one. Off-highway heavies are harder, ships are harder, short-haul airplanes are much harder, and long-haul airplanes are nearly impossible. Most people have no idea of the numbers involved in doing intercontinental aircraft travel at Mach 0.8-0.84, because we've made it seem so easy.
     
  12. R-P

    R-P Active Member

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    Should have payed better attention when visiting my parent companies battery plant that makes high-temp-resistant Lithium disposable batteries 15 years ago. Some were 1 meter long. They made all kinds of shapes (e.g. for equipment going down boreholes).
    No longer work there, so not going to get a do-over, nor get to see if they e.g. made the jump to rechargeables.

    Totally unrelated but a nice product all the same: solar powered luxury yacht.

    (Disclaimer: have only seen this link by some Youtubers, but the above link should be more technical but haven't had time to watch)
     
  13. dbg1066

    dbg1066 Junior Member

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    Interesting thread. Hits me close to home.

    I tried, I waited, I waited some more, but I finally lost patience with Toyota this year. When I discovered I could get a Tesla that is rated for 325 miles, and already has a coast to coast and Mexico to Canada charging network, I dove in. I am still happy with Bella (my 2016 Prius 3 Touring) and I enjoyed my previous 2005 Prius as well, but the fact that I have dramatically cut my carbon footprint even from the Prius level, the fact that I can have a taller (better visibility) car, the fact that said car has great features and ridiculous power, the fact that I could (and did) sign up for renewable energy for my house (and therefore my car when charged at home, 90+% of the time) basically allowing me to stop directly funding fossil fuel companies --- the weight of those tipped me over the edge.
    Yes, well aware not all Prius owners can afford the switch at current prices. But I have little doubt that everyone here is also aware that battery and other EV component prices are racing down a 1990's PC technology curve of cost reduction and innovation now.
    If Toyota ever does deliver EV in a meaningful way - and as much as I've enjoyed Enterprise John's many comments over the years, I have my doubts - I suppose they will fight all the other latecomers for the lower cost / lower profit margin sector.
    I invested a few k in Toyota a decade or so ago, being a loyal customer and reasoning that their hybrid expertise put them well ahead of the technical curve for EV's, putting them in a leadership position for the EV changeover that _had_ to occur sometime soon. Sadly, it appeared clear to me several years ago that they squandered that potential advantage, and will be playing catchup for the foreseeable future. For this customer, Toyota missed the boat.

    Responding to a comment I saw earlier about replacing all the gas stations: as an EV owner, it is clear we need more charging infrastructure, but we _don't_ need as much as there are gas stations out there. Those of us with houses don't ever need to find a station in our home cities - this will reduce public charging demand significantly.
     
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  14. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Very well said! Except for the timing, as I wasn’t as patient as you, your post describes me almost perfectly :)(y)
     
  15. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    That's probably not a fact. My own analysis indicates that the carbon footprint of a Model 3 is about double that of my Prius Prime.
     
  16. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Show your work.
     
  17. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    upload_2021-10-7_12-45-36.png
     
  18. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Well the impact of manufacturing the car battery is way off.
    https://www.electrive.com/2020/08/31/study-currently-available-electric-cars-cause-less-co2-emissions-than-ices/

    long range tesla battery = 75kg/kwh * 82 kwh = 6150 kg CO2. To make that batter over 150,000 miles adds about 41 g CO2/mile. The future LFP battery in the standard plus when made in the US or germany will be much lower.

    Balance of the car is likely much lower than the prius prime given tesla's energy mix. The model 3 long range is likely about 30 g CO2/mile more expensive to manufacture than the prius prime.

    78% of electrical miles on the prime is a great deal above the US and world wide average.
    Compare Side-by-Side



    according to fuel economy.gov well to wheel emissions for the prime are 180 g CO2/mile in colorado, 160 g/mi in the US grid as a whole. It is 160 g/mi for the model 3 long range, and 120 g/mile in the US as a whole. YMMV. In colorado the prime is likely around 10 g CO2/mile beter than a long range model 3 over 150,000 miles. On the US grid the model 3 is about that much better. To me they are both good and around equivalent. I prefer driving my model 3. For people like hill and zythrn and I who added solar to our homes the ghg benefit of the model 3 is even better. I live in a 2 car household. When we go somewhere together we go in my car.

    Thank you for showing your work so I could see where your math errors were. Tesla manufactures their battery packs with a much lower ghg impact than assumed by many of the high estimates.
     
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  19. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    There is a lot of dispute about the life-cycle energy cost of battery production. So much so, that I have it as an input in my spreadsheet. I don't believe for one second that Tesla is manufacturing them with a far lower energy content than everyone else, since much of that energy is entirely out of their control, being expended in mineral extraction, mineral processing, and transportation long before it reaches any Tesla hands.

    As I said, this was for *my Prime*, which has a life-cycle energy mix of 78% electricity (99% in-town, 5% out-of-town) and I'm using my lifetime electricity and MPG for it from actual measurements.
     
  20. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    You original statement was telling someone else that their calculations for their car was not correct.

    You can create your own data for your personal calculations. But please don’t tell others are wrong about their own calculations for their situations.
     
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