Featured Not alone in feeling that Toyota is missing the EV-boat (article)

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by R-P, Sep 14, 2021.

  1. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    You're wrong. What Richard said was correct.

    They are. Electricity Data Browser
    upload_2021-10-14_8-4-54.png

    They did, but by a tiny amount because they are tiny compared to the size of the grid.
     
  2. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I wouldn't call richard a troll. But the other guy veered this seriously off topic, and there is a lot of misinformation out there.

    Perhaps a different thread about the real likely impact of the grid and plug-in vehicles is needed. I'm glad you started one about Toyota's solid state battery cars.
     
  3. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    No and no, Zythryn was correct. Small residential producers are neither included nor tiny. The small scalle solar PV you posted is not residential.

    Michael Nyberg reported on this last in 2018:

    Data reporting requirements for total system electric generation are limited to those projects with a nameplate capacity of 1 MW and larger. As most solar PV systems installed on residential homes and commercial buildings are less than 1 MW, they are typically considered to be distributed generation and not required to report to the Energy Commission.

    The overall decline observed in California's total system electric generation for 2018 is consistent with the trends observed in energy demand. In recent years, electricity demand has been flat or slightly declining as energy efficiency programs have resulted in end-use energy savings and as customers install behind-the-meter (BTM) solar photovoltaic (PV) systems that directly displaces utility-supplied generation. In 2018, BTM solar generation was estimated to be 13,582 GWh, a 20 percent increase from 2017.

    It's been 3 years since then and the BTM contribution is much greater now.

    2018 Total System Electric Generation
     
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  4. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    Residential is included in "small scale".

    upload_2021-10-14_13-7-30.png

    upload_2021-10-14_13-7-57.png
     
  5. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    No, its not; just because you can click a button that was not programmed correctly...The number one residential PV land California says no and no way to measure on net energy meters that almost all residences use at this time.
     
  6. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    No way to measure it doesn't mean no way to report it. Solar is very predictable and installations have to be reported, inspected, and acknowledged by the utilities. They can very easily (it's in the installation report) add up the annual estimated energy production. Further, inverters can and do report energy production and this can be used to spot-check and calibrate the estimates. These estimates are very close to reality - certainly within 5%, probably within 1%.
     
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  7. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    I have searched EIA for their methods, and while have confirmed they do perform estimates, there is no evidence that they have measured data. I had asked my inverter company (re: energy/power) and municipality inspector (nameplate PV power capacity) in the past if they reported this data to a higher government agencies such as State and Feds and they answered no. Let us know if you can find how EIA does their estimates.

    EIA did mention that BTM residental solar PV is substantial, and this was way bay in 2015:

    Small-scale solar PV installations, defined by EIA as having capacity of less than 1 megawatt (MW), are usually located at the customer's site of electricity consumption. These small-scale PV installations are also called behind-the-meter, customer-sited, or distributed generation capacity. Although each distributed PV system is very small—a typical size for residential PV systems is 5 kilowatts (kW), or 0.005 MW—there are hundreds of thousands of these systems across the country that add up to a substantial amount of electricity generating capacity.

    EIA electricity data now include estimated small-scale solar PV capacity and generation - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
     
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  8. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    I've actually had to provide data to EIA once (long ago) for this purpose for small wind. These devices go through a rigorous testing and certification process, which help characterize them (more important for wind than for solar) and EIA can (and apparently does) ask for measured data from a small number of users and/or research organizations. Further, tools have been developed that can be used to estimate output, given some actual inputs (such as panel area, roof pitch and direction, location, etc.) that helps to create these estimates, and these tools are validated with measured data all the time. Probably half of my career has, in one way or another, been about providing measured data for tool validation (for wind, but the same thing is done for solar). In this way, estimates end up grounded in measured data. They remain estimates, but those estimates are better because of the use of measured data to calibrate the tools that create them.
     
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  9. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    By the way, EIA doesn't do this themselves, exactly. Mostly utilities use tools to estimate output for each individual installation (it's generally done before install) and then they adjust the sum of all of those based on monthly solar illumination numbers, estimates of outages, and other factors, and then report those to EIA. EIA mostly just collects data and analyzes it. They don't gather from individual customers. They do some of their own modeling with NEMS. Model Development - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
     
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  10. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Lots of stuff there, most looks to be demand side reports. The closest I could find among the reports:

    Distributed generation component

    The distributed generation component allows adoption of solar photovoltaic, fuel cells, and small wind turbine systems for on-site generation to compete with purchased electricity for satisfying electricity needs. Penetration rates of these systems are projected using a ZIP Code-level econometric hurdle model for solar photovoltaics and a cash-flow formulation for fuel cells and wind. Electricity generated by these systems is deducted from space cooling and other electricity consumption, or it is sold back to the grid, if feasible.

    https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/nems/overview/pdf/0581(2018).pdf


    Searching the internet then: "ZIP Code-level econometric hurdle model for solar photovoltaics" turns up:

    EIA estimates residential solar PV by using a ZIP code-level hurdle model in which the level of nearby installed capacity and number of households in a given area are also factors in PV penetration.

    ...EIA currently uses third-party sources to estimate historical capacity. For solar PV capacity, EIA depends on the published Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) state-level annual installed capacity estimates that are based on information from state agencies, utility programs, or incentive administrators...


    The historical reliance on third-party estimates of capacity reflects the gaps in historical coverage of installed capacity for distributed generators in data collected through EIA surveys of the electric power sector. Recently updated survey methodology may allow EIA to calculate a lower bound of the installed capacity. Form EIA-860 captures utility-scale installations in which plant capacity is greater than or equal to 1 megawatt, and Form EIA-861 captures net-metered installations of both distributed and dispersed generation in the residential sector and commercial/industrial sectors. This effort includes capacity attributed to third-party operators (TPOs) such as Tesla, Sunrun, and Vivint Solar. Again, for modeling purposes, EIA attributes all non-residential, non-CHP installations to the commercial sector. However, because of gaps in historical coverage by Form EIA-860 and Form EIA-861, EIA continues to use third-party data. The parameters for commercial distributed generation diffusion are calibrated to a historical data series beginning in 2004.

    EIA - Distributed Generation in Buildings

    Still hard to see precisely how acurrately EIA is modeling here and the gaps they note that are missing. As they stated, their estimates are limited by being lower bound by what they can discover from EIA-861 and 3rd parties.

    If we could see how they are pulling all of their data, who is not reporting to them, etc, this may be helpful. For example, pulling up Form EIA-861 they reference doesn't appear to have anything to do with residential PV. We did not have to complete one of these for our residential PV systems and am not aware of anyone else having to or doing so. There is likely also a substantial time lag for 3rd parties to report their installed capacity, if they do even agree to report...
     
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  11. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    At best they use the installers required estimated monthly & annual production that is provided to the customer. These are required when you want to claim a system for the federal rebates and maybe even by state and local rules. But starting on day 2 they have no way to know if I happened to have charged an EV that day or if I threw a tarp over my panels and that is why my "net" usage for that day was different than some other day.
    If they actually had a program of some kind to measure your daily, monthly or annual production you'd think there would be somebody somewhere that would have described the program they are in unless it is top secret and under NDA only. (doubtful)

    Mike
     
  12. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    It may be important to note that EIA kind of does two main things - data collection and modeling. The data collection is historical and published. The modeling is to create projections. Their prediction accuracy is historically terrible.
     
  13. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    That's not the best they can do. They can and do, do better. As I said, they adjust based on solar measurements, expected outages ("availability") and other factors. The number created before installation is usually annual energy production (AEP) but EIA reports monthly numbers which aren't the same each month demonstrating that they do more than just report the sum of all their AEPs.
     
  14. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    My pre-installation estimates had not only the annual estimate but the monthly estimates that were merely summed up to give the annual number. What I doubt they do is take into account my local weather/clouds, etc. The angle of my panels, my lat/long and the path of the sun are very easy to compute...even subtracting a bit each year for degradation. But they aren't actually measuring anything, such as the growth of my shade trees or if I clean my panels or get my trees trimmed.

    Mike
     
  15. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    In addition, per their definitions, they measure the “net generation” not the production.
    So does this mean they build their calculations on my interconnect agreement? If so, this estimates my annual net generation at 0%.
    In this case my solar panels are estimated at not lowering the carbon intensity of the grid.
    This is even though most months, they actually do (by a tiny amount).
     
  16. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    Which is the same thing at a residential installation.

    You don't know what "net generation" means. Let me explain.

    At a big conventional power plant, the biggest user of generated electricity is usually the plant itself. Take a coal plant. You have systems for emptying trains, systems for moving the coal to the plant, systems for crushing that coal, fans and water pumps in the cooling towers, scrubbers, losses at the plant substation, lights for the staff, offices for the staff, and so on.

    At home with a solar system, the only real loss you have is the inverter. So, that's taken into account and that's it. The rest of your house is considered a consumer, not a part of the loss at the plant.
     
  17. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    That's right. They use fudge-factors to account for that sort of thing. "1% loss for tree growth" or whatever. But those estimates are validated against real-life so they aren't far off, for the aggregate of the system.
     
  18. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Modeling all too often concludes either against or for the verdict being desired or being rebuffed. One can imaging EIA wanting to have an ax to grind against residential solar, as that ilk is destroying the basis by which some of the power industry justifies price hikes -
    .
     
  19. Lee Jay

    Lee Jay Senior Member

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    How could the EIA have any such motivation?
     
  20. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    How could the EPA fuel economy tests disfavor diesel?
     
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