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Not sure we need an ozone thread, but...

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Oct 3, 2011.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    In one recent envtl. thread here, the question was poses "why don't we hear about the ozone hole any more?"

    Unfortunately, Mother Earth also appeared to hear the question, and has given an answer:

    Unprecedented Arctic ozone loss last winter

    and as soon as time allows I'll get the underlying article in Nature. But for now, I'd like to make two points

    (1) Put up capable satellites, look down, and you'll learn lots of things.

    (2) Once a long-lived chemical is added to the atmosphere by human means, the response of the system is 'whatever it wants'. The situation is out of our hands, except in terms of reduced emissions going forward.

    In this case, the hole (which is in fact a thinning, not an absence) worsened because of temperatures and air-circulation patterns.

    One might draw a parallel to carbon dioxide, where the emissions are purely voluntary, though obviously strongly driven by economic factors. The system responses to that have so far proven hard to pin down. At least in a way that leads to broad consensus and agreed actions going forward.

    Beyond that there are probably more differences than similarities with O3 and CO2. I'm not calling them the same thing here.
     
  2. chogan2

    chogan2 Senior Member

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    My two cents:

    1) If bromine had been cheaper than chlorine, we'd have been in some very deep trouble. Since there is no necessary connection between economics and chemistry, I'd say that's just plain dumb luck.
    Our Lucky Ozone Escape | Mother Jones

    2) C02 increase cools the stratosphere (though exactly why it cools the stratosphere is surprisingly hard to describe). So to some degree this parallels other phenomena in global warming -- when you add in a steady trend to natural variation, you get higher highs or lower lows. (For example, that is how the Texas state climatologist characterized the current drought.) The arctic ozone has been thinning for a couple of decades. And now we hit a new low within the instrumental record. What would have been within the range of normal variation becomes a new record.

    3) A while back, I mapped patterns of skin cancer prevalence in Medicare, by state, adjusting for racial mix (Caucasians have about 4x the incidence of skin cancer as others.) My clients thought I had made a mistake. They expected the highest rates in the South (and Hawaii). Not so. Rates are highest in the Rocky Mountain states. For delivering UV to the skin, thin air trumps semi-tropical location. Apparently, we here in the US mid-latitudes get a pretty good extra dose of UV as the ozone hole breaks up at the end of winter. And have been for some years.

    4) Your point about not being able to stuff the genie back into the bottle is well taken. For CFCs, literally -- anybody else here old enough to remember CFC-driven aerosol cans for everyday household products? That's one where, with 20-20 hindsight, you just have to say, what were they thinking? Between leaded gas and CFCs, at least the government has gotten the notion that dispersing exotic materials across the landscape on an industrial scale has some risks. I guess MTBE is another story along the same lines -- replaced lead, and now is replaced by ethanol, though more through threat of lawsuit than anything else. And the arsenic in old-style pressure-treated wood, now replaced by formulations that exclude the arsenic. Again, a voluntary private action, but ... with a lot of pressure behind it. You just have to wonder how many more are out there that haven't been found yet. And for all of those, you could get the job done because there was some alternative plug-and-play formulation that would work. For C02, we're not there yet.
     
  3. MontyTheEngineer

    MontyTheEngineer New Member

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  4. chogan2

    chogan2 Senior Member

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    Duplicate post
     
  5. chogan2

    chogan2 Senior Member

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    I thought the primary source of chlorine radicals in the stratosphere was the ultraviolet-induced breakup of CFCs. It's just that the other conditions make that more effective for destroying ozone.

    Yeah, here, unknown source, but matches what I thought I'd see:

    [​IMG]
     
  6. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    It is not as if this was not predicted -
    I'll put in my favorite source for pop science, feel free if you disagree or prefer something more authoritative

    Arctic Ozone Hole Enlarged by Severe Cold Spell | Wired Science | Wired.com


    not colder, but cold longer.

    Problem identified and solved, but full solution will take decades longer.
     
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    AG's last line is just what I was trying to say, but much more succinctly.

    Chogan2, much of that 15% of methyl chloride seems to come from fungi using every trick they can to break down dead wood.. One of the tricks is not very different from Chlorox (TM), and the chlorine atom ended up stuck to methyl.

    The HCl, volcanic or otherwise, might really be a much larger flux to the stratosphere. But it is very soluble in water, and rain takes it back down. Chloride in sea-salt spray is a HUGE flux to the atmosphere but it comes down (quickly) the same way.

    The rare, very large volcanic eruption can punch through to the stratosphere can can deliver a lot of chlorine up there.
     
  8. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    There is a parallel to CO2, in that humans are putting contaminants in the atmosphere. However, the ozone hole caused by ChloroFluoroCarbons refrigerants (eg; freon) was different in that - following a few years of bickering - the entire world agreed that the CFC's were seriously endangering life on earth, so CFC's (eg; freon) were fairly promptly banned. Unfort it will still take several hundred years for the atmosphere to recover.

    In contrast for +CO2, it is less clear if life on earth is threatened. So there is less concensus on the need to ban fossil fuels.