OEMS Worry About Cheap Gas

Toyota is running some pretty fat incentives on Prius Plug-in, $1,500 cash back plus 0% APR for 60 mo here. ....

meanwhile cars.com lists 113 PiPs available within 50 mi of 94587 which is quite a few. Last months sales of 300 something PiPs was .. bad.

We'll see if the talk about cheap gas holds up after the mid-term elections next week.

 

But Lincoln revised their mpg estimates for their hybrid version of the MKZ downward by quite a bit:
Find your Goodwill Payment amount
YearModelOwn/LeasePrevious
EPA-estimated MPG
city/hwy/combinedRevised
EPA-estimated MPG
city/hwy/combined Goodwill Payment
2013/2014Lincoln MKZ HybridLease45/45/4538/37/38$625.00
2013/2014Lincoln MKZ HybridOwn45/45/4538/37/38$1050.00
I found for 2.0 L 4-cylinder a 22 city and 33 highway result, which makes the highway mpg difference almost negligible. As that is the mileage figure touted in most advertisements, the consumers may have been simply rejecting the increase in complexity and perceived maintenance, etc. of the hybrid as being justified by the 4 mpg difference in highway mpg. Interviews with MKZ purchasers would be interesting.

 

As far as the use of oil is concerned, this is NOT a long trending downward trough in the price of oil.

In 1999, I remember buying gasoline at 87 cents a gallon. Even when adjusted for inflation, that will NEVER likely happen again, unless there is a worldwide depression.

The hybrid is still the "KING of the HILL," when it comes to urban driving and driving in heavy stop and go traffic. The EPA does NOT test for that. If it was measured, the hybrid still beats them ALL.

Hybrid platforms are developmental trails into new technology and a long term real world test for the same.

The development of "drive by wire" started with hybrids, which included electrical air conditioning compressors, electrical power steering and electronically controlled braking and transmissions and shifters, as well as start stop technology.

Eventually ALL cars will adopt some form of these developments as "belt driven" "full time" mechanical pumps will be needed to eliminate wasted power sapped from the engine. These requirements become even more necessary due to increasing CAFE economy standards.

These developments will become necessary for implementation for new safety applications and the reality of the self driving car of the future.

It would not be wrong to predict that ALL cars will be some form of "mild" hybrid with a small high voltage battery. Economies of scale will make them truly affordable compared to the hybrid premium of today's models.

 

just depends on the length of the current geopolitical environment. i'm not worried about the automakers, but i am concerned about the politicians.

 

I am hopeful that as EVs and PHEVs become cooler, faster etc.. there will be more buy in from the consumer market because the price of gasoline will no longer be a primary reason for the purchase of "hybrid" vehicles.

People don't purchase the Tesla Model S just because they can save money on fuel. They buy them because they are sexy, fast, desirable, comfortable and seat many. It is simply more desirable than the equivalent vehicle from Audi, Mercedes or BMW.

 

even the i8?

 

In most cases yes because the i8 has more limitations. It is desirable, however. But since it is a PHEV I wasn't including it in my competitor list. I also know you are just teasing me.

 

The i8 is NOT a main line sale item. It is a niche market that BMW is using to test the long term viability of new technology.

Main line BMW's are benefiting from the technology developed in the i8.

BMW even advertises it that way.

If you look to history, Alexander Winton, who founded the Winton Motor Carriage Company in Cleveland, Ohio, was one of the earliest and greatest. They ceased making cars in the 1920's due to their "conservative" "old school" technology, which lost market share to Chevrolet, Oldsmobile, Ford, and others.

 

...Don't forget "CAFE MPG" is really Congress's silly MPG whereas Prius scores around 80 MPG on that basis. But still its hard to see how we make 52 MPG with everyone buying F150's. But F150's are aluminum now, so I like the direction we are headed, even if we don't make the targets.

Hybrids have a tough road (need some price breaks) in some states car taxes are 15-20% (in VA the incremental car tax approaches 30%) so if you pay more for a hybrid you can pay a lot more state/local taxes too. It would be great if that hybrid cost-delta was somehow absorbed by the autos or the Feds (on paper at least) so we are not taken to the cleaners for extra state/local taxes for the crime of buying a fuel efficient vehicle..

 

Bob, I hope you realize, that a quote from someone quoting 'a senior Toyota executive [] in private', is NOT going to be acceptable as proof of Toyota's thinking for john.

Still - perhaps the Ford & Toyota teams should throw more lobby money for even higher hydrogen car credits. Just think .... if they can go from making a hydrogen car FIVE times more credit-worthy to say - TWENTY times more CARB credit worthy - the manufacturers will only have to sell 40 or 50 cars - and yet they'd get the CARB value of 1,000 'real' smog/energy efficient cars. Because after all - isn't that what it's all about? Manufacturers getting lots of money - just to create an expensive / impractical vehicle?

 

Maybe Toyota will reduce the cost of their hybrids now? They did seem to shoot up alarmingly in the last 5 years whereas the competition didn't by as much.

 

that's because there is no competition.

 

Locally it's about $3.25/g. Cheap is when it's $0.99.

 

I'm going to keep doing what I do as if the price of gas never dropped and banking the difference, for now.

 

...one thing is for sure, we are not going to lose any money keeping our 2006 Prius...
that thing already saved a lot a of gaso money, so its gravy from here on out.

 

^^^ Inspired by you guys, I calculated my fuel savings for my first 35,000 miles of Prius driving at an average of 53.1 mpg, which required 662 gallons and cost $2,440.
BUT, the alternative vehicle mix would have been 24,000 miles on our Saturn at an average 26 mpg for about 930 gallons and $3,400 cost, plus 11,000 miles on the Tundra towing a camping trailer at an average 10.5 mpg for about 1,047 gallons and $3,800 cost. The total cost for that mix would have been around $7,200, so driving the Prius thus far has saved us around $4,760 ! Wow.
So our Prius has not yet paid for itself, but it is well on the way to doing so.