Oilman Pickens predicts $100/barrel

from the Guardian:
"Steep decline in oil production..."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html

 

Higher prices increase production. If you get to $100 a barrel, then extracting oil from shale and sand becomes economically feasible, and we have more oil locked up in shale and sand between Wyoming and Colorado than we have ever used.

That doesn't help the environment, but there will be plenty of oil to burn at $100 a barrel.

It also makes some alternative energy projects more viable, like storable wind and solar power. Being able to store electrical energy for when its needed will make these projects viable when electricity gets to 10 - 15 cents per Kwh. Most of us could use an electric car for our daily commute, even with today's ranges (the average commute is under 30 miles each way). Gas at $6 a gallon makes an electric car look better and better.

 

I don't think you really need an oil man to make such a prediction:

http://priuschat.com/index.php?showtopic=38921&hl=oil

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(fshagan @ Oct 22 2007, 08:57 PM) [snapback]529090[/snapback]</div>

There's a site on the net called "Peak Oil" "Life after the Oil Crash" It's very extensive and detailed. Once World peak oil supply is attained, ( est: 2010 ) Oil supplies will dwindle rapidly, as demand continues to increase. Nothing, I repeat nothing in our present technology can compete with oil. Not wind, solar, fuel cells, ethanol, nuclear etc. Many of these energy sources require more energy in terms of oil, or cost than they produce. Oil grabbing nations will muscle out weaker countries, prices will escalate wildly, riots will ensue and chaos will reign. Our so called government leaders are afraid to talk about it, for fear of further panic, so....they keep quiet. The logical answer would be to have a Manhatten type project similar to the developement of the A BOMB. We may not find a solution but it would at least take our heads out of the sand. For those of you who do not know of the oil crisis of the late 60's and early 70's there was chaos and fighting at the pumps, plus long lines. In Germany we could not drive at all every other Sunday, ( I was stationed there at the time) If rationing was started right now, much oil could be saved for the other more important uses, other than transportation. This oil crisis problem drawfs any other problem that we, the US has, including Iraq, Terrorists, Fires out west, Flooding in Texas, AND the Economy...Because Oil IS THE ECONOMY.

 

I have met Boone Pickens. He is an interesting fellow. I worked as an assistant to a contemporary of Mr. Pickens, that was a Wildcatter and is still an Exploration Geologist.

These guys have been in the forefront of Oil Exploration, and involved with and led all of the top organizations in their industry. They have been on Energy Counsels, etc.

They know what they are talking about.

I know experienced, successful oilmen, that are buying up old leases, recompleting wells that were thought not worth the trouble. With the current prices of oil and gas, and the lack of any renewed resources, these plays are worth a lot of Money. GE seems to think so to, and has invested in O & G.

We are in trouble, now. But our government will wait, just like Katrina, just like immigration, just like fire control in CA, just like water shortages in many parts of the US.

There is no energy that will take the place of oil any time soon. We had better get practicing doing without.

It will take all of the other energy sources combined to put a dent in Oil energy.

 

Higher demand and lessening production will raise prices. Higher prices will stimulate production of more expensive sources, such as shale or tar sands. But higher prices will also place gasoline out of the reach of ordinary people.

Imagine your city when neither you nor any of your neighbors can afford to buy gas. People will demand public transportation, but most U.S. cities are too spread out. The housing market in the suburbs will collapse while housing costs closer in where transportation is available will skyrocket. People in the suburbs will default on their mortgages because the value of their homes will be less than the amount owed. They will be unable to buy homes where they have access to their jobs. Banks will go under due to the bad mortgages and there will be no federal money to save them through FDIC because all the money has already gone for failed wars to try to secure oil. The result will be economic chaos.

It is not the total depletion of oil that will cause the crisis; rather it is the exponentially rising cost. Our economy is dependent on cheap oil. The operative word is cheap. There will always be some oil, because it will become so expensive that nobody can afford to use it. But when nobody can afford it, the economic effect will be the same as if there was none. And that effect will reverberate throughout the entire economy because every aspect of our daily lives is dependent, not merely on oil, but on cheap oil.

And yes, $3/gal is cheap. What's going to happen when gas is $300/gal?

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nerfer @ Oct 24 2007, 10:45 AM) [snapback]529708[/snapback]</div>

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/24/markets/oi...sion=2007102415
$87 people.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(burritos @ Oct 24 2007, 04:50 PM) [snapback]529880[/snapback]</div>

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071025/oil_prices.html

Oil quietly sneaks above $90/barrel today.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(daniel @ Oct 24 2007, 08:00 AM) [snapback]529684[/snapback]</div>

Urbanization has already been a hot thing in the Bay Area. Homes outside 50 miles radius of San Jose and San Franciso has been crashing and being foreclosed. While at the same time, condos/townhomes prices keep skyrocketing like it was 2005.

In or around San Jose, an one bedroom condo (900 sq ft) cost more than $350k, and a 1700 sq ft townhouse cost more than $750k. And then $300/month HOA. Builders will laugh at you if you ask about incentives.

The rental market is even crazier, averaged 13% rent increase in the last 6 months.

People said that they could not afford a family of $500+/month ($1000+/month for SUV/truck owners) in gas bill at $3/gal for living in the suburbs.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nerfer @ Oct 24 2007, 10:45 AM) [snapback]529708[/snapback]</div>

I agree with both you and Daniel, however there is one optomistic note out there. I ran across a new magazine ( new for me) called Fast Company and the article 100MPG Diesels in the Nov issue seemed believable. Although the novel mechanic was short on documentation, his ideas seemed sensible. He takes these outlandish size vehicles ( like the Hummer ) and basically doubles the mileage and cuts the pollution by about 50%. He installs very powerful engines, with turbochargers and injects hydrogen thereby doubling the mileage and drastically decreasing pollution. From the article he appears to be a strong enthusiast of hybrids, and his current project will be using a special military turbo diesel with a bank of batteries. This engine supposedly revs up to 60,000 RPM and will charge the batteries in SECONDS. He claims 0-60 in 5 seconds and 800HP available. He believes this machine should get at least 60MPG. Although people like this will not stop oil from depleting, they will drastically slow it down, IF incorporated. The modifier named Johnathan claims that Detroit could do everything that he is now doing AND they could do it tomorrow ( if, they wanted to!!!) The writer quoted him as saying: "Everybody should have a hybrid" Please read this article. For you enthusiastic tech/mechanic types: I know of an eccentric millionaire in Germany that goes around collecting grease from eateries , this is and has been his fuel for his old Mercedes, for many years. He never buys fuel!!! His biggest problem is trying to figure out where and how to store all this grease he keeps collecting. Cheers Andy

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(priusmaybe @ Oct 24 2007, 06:30 AM) [snapback]529614[/snapback]</div>

Pickens definitely seems to know what he is doing in terms of energy sources. There really isn't a way to replace what around 16 million barrels of oil a day worth of energy with current alternatives. I could see other sources of energy getting a lot more practical if the price of oil (and the price of gas) contains to maintain this pace. I heard a story several months ago that Pickens was planning on building the largest windfarm in the world. I haven't heard much more about it, but I am guessing it won't be built for several years yet.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(andyprius @ Oct 25 2007, 10:58 PM) [snapback]530599[/snapback]</div>

Sounds like a crock to me. Where does the hydrogen come from? It takes energy to produce. You can't get something from nothing. The claim that he can double the mpg of a Hummer by installing a humongous diesel is what gives it away. Also your comment "short on documentation" makes it suspicious.

Some time back there was a scam where they claimed that the engine would drive a generator to produce electricity to make H2, which would be injected into the engine to produce more energy. This is called perpetual motion, or "something for nothing." The more complicated they make the loop, the more people they can convince that it's not bogus. But any time the engine produces energy to run the engine, you know it's a scam.

100-mpg cars are achievable, but only at the cost of very light weight and reduced acceleration. The Prius achieves double mpg basically because it uses a small, efficient but low-torque engine and makes up the torque/acceleration with the electric motor/battery combination. Technological improvements will increase mpg.

But a humongous heavy high-hp diesel takes a LOT of fuel to run. Small, lightweight diesels may find their way into hybrids. But just as with the Prius, the key to high mpg is low hp, not 800 hp!

 

T. Boone Pickens said just a couple of years ago that the world was awash in oil. I thought he was an idiot at the time, and now the man himself has admitted he was wrong.

Harry

 

You can't get something from nothing but you can get a little more from what you already have:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_fuel_injection

"Hydrogen fuel injection, or HFI, is a system to reduce exhaust emissions of internal combustion engines and improve fuel economy. HFI systems work by injecting hydrogen as a combustion enhancement into the intake manifold of an internal combustion engine to achieve these benefits. A small amount of hydrogen added to the intake air-fuel charge enhances the flame velocity and thus permits the engine to operate with leaner air-to-fuel mixture than otherwise possible. The result is lower pollution with more power and better mileage."

This is working quite well in trucks I hear but nothing as dramatic as the claims a few posts ago.

~buttster

 

For all the people that are big fans of very heavy oil (Tar Sands, Oil Shale, etc) as our savior need to look at the reality of extraction. All you need to do is look at the tar sand operations in Canada for the basic model.

Use huge amounts of natural gas to heat water and generate steam.
Inject steam into the ground for several days
The steam heats the ground and liquefies the tar into oil
Pump the oil to the service

This process uses many times for energy to produce the oil than the oil contains. This model is only acceptable at the moment because the natural gas is land-locked and has no inexpensive way to markets. In a peak oil scenario were people have realized and admitted that oil supply is finite, other sources of energy like natural gas will because increasingly more important and expensive. It will no longer be economically viable to convert the natural gas into oil with such a poor efficiency.




<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(excuseMeButt @ Oct 26 2007, 12:23 PM) [snapback]530762[/snapback]</div>

HFI is being developed to improve emissions, not as a way to increase efficency. Yes, gasoline consumption is reduced but at the expense of the addition of hydrogen consumption. On a BTU/mile basis you do not gain efficiency.