Plug-in electrics, they're just not plausible right now

Meanwhile, the 100+ mile range RAV4-EV's are still selling used (some now have over 175,000 miles on 'em) ... and they're still getting snapped up for what they cost new ... and the 100+ mile think is selling the europe just fine ... and the 100+ mile Mini Cooper (with it's outrageous $800+ monthly lease payment) all got snapped up when they came out.

Thanks for the insight, and words of wisdom, bill

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My big questions about a PHEV or EV (not NEV), would be ...

* How much does it cost?

* What is the traction battery warranty?

* How much will it cost, parts and labor to replace traction battery?

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IMO, those above are the big issues.

 

Problems with English? Many things are plausible. Not everything is feasible or cost effective.

 

The biggest thing I realized about EVs recently is, what about refuelling?

I'm not talking about whether or not the necessary electric sockets will be available, but rather the fact that it can take several hours to recharge!

Right now, if I go on a long trip, I can stop anywhere along the way and spend 5 minutes filling it up with gas.

But what about pure EVs? It could take hours to recharge, and in the meantime you're stuck waiting...

This seems like a huge problem to me, and it only just recently occurred to me. What the heck are we gonna do?

 

That's why plugin electrics won't be practical for anything other than daily commuting until ultra capacitor manufacturing matures. Ultra cap technology is out there now but the manufacturing capability/technique makes it impractical for mass production. Someday that will change and ultra caps with energy densities 50 times that of LiIOn that charge in 5 minutes will be everywhere.

 

Ah, thanks for mentioning that! I knew there must be some way around that problem eventually...

In the mean time, I guess we still have our HEVs, and hopefully even PHEVs soon.

 

Interesting read, I'll have to find out more about this guy. Thanks for providing the link.

 

Not plausible?

Tell that to BYD who are selling PHEVs already and manufacturing LiFePO4 batteries for less than $300 per kWh. This is just sour grapes on the part of Toyota who are still lumbered with the hugely expensive batteries provided to them by Panasonic EV.

 

BYD, as well as a host of others are already successfully selling PHEV conversions.
Perhaps the next aricle by the author will read:
"This author's veracity not plausible right now"



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Bill's an extremely interesting guy. We shared an office wall for 2 1/2 years, and have had lots of fascinating discussions. We don't always see eye-to-eye, but I will say this, Bill will never shy from telling you what he believes. So if it's his opinion one technology will win and another won't, that's his interpretation of the data at his fingertips, not a political spiel.

You, of course, are free to disagree.

Doug Coleman
Prius Product Manager
Toyota Motor Sales, USA

 

Indeed he is an interesting guy and I throughly agree with:

He sounds like my kind of engineer ... perfect is the enemy of good enough.

Bob Wilson

 

What's wrong with making a $40,000 plug-in car for those that can afford it? Toyota could tweak the body work on the Prius (a special body kit), and put $40,000 PHEV Priuses in Toyota showrooms across the nation. It's not for everybody. Right now, you can walk into a Toyota showroom and find a $14,999 Yaris on one side of the showroom and a $49,999 loaded Sequoia SUV on the other side of the showroom. The $49,999 Sequoia isn't for everyone, but Toyota does make it, and according to Toyota's sales numbers, there are thousands of people that buy it every month.
So, why not make a special $40,000 PHEV Prius with a special body kit and leather and luxury package for the people that don't mind spending $40K? Do you think Lexus sells a lot of the $106,000 LS600hL cars? Probably not, but they do make it and they do sell it. So, why let price be an issue for a PHEV Prius? The first generation can be for those that can afford it. Over time, the price can come down, and eventually by the third generation, it can be for the masses.:welcome:

 

It could be as simple as limited resources.

We don't have all of the information but several news reports suggest the critical resource is the availability of batteries. Last October, our Georgetown KY tour group was told that batteries were limiting Camry hybrid production. The problem may be that building one plug-in Prius and a gas-only Camry takes the battery resources needed to make two regular Prius. Then there is a the problem of managing user expectations.

So I'm content to wait a bit, to let the technology mature. But compared to the fool-cell technology, plug-in has a lot more credibility. In the short-term, consider a 'do it yourself' plug-in.

Bob Wilson

 

As long as I still have my Prius for my beloved road trips and the impromptu trips to pick up Chinese takeout, a Coda might just work for me for the commute. It's 32 miles round trip. Even with a/c and a bit of traffic here and there it ought to make it. Between 5pm when I get home and 7am when I leave for work, it should be able to get charged up on my existing plug in the garage.
If I didn't have a second car, no it wouldn't work. If I had a longer commute it wouldn't work. Yes, $45K is a lot of money, but Uncle Sam and my state want to help me be an early adopter. My dad always said the end of the electric car was the biggest mistake Detroit ever made (and that was in the 60s!).

 

Apples, Oranges, Prunes and Watermelons. The tricky problem with this debate is that everyone can be discussing one idea, Plug in Electrics, but so many people are coming at it from so many diverse P.O.V. 's. That creates a situation where you have to keep in mind the background of the individual commenting and pay special attention to the semantics.

The most interesting or perhaps telling sentence within Bill Reinerts statement is imo " Transportation is a different world ". His opinion on the plausibility of Plug-in electrics is being shaped by his point of view. "Transportation" is probably the most general, widest term you could apply to the auto industry as a whole and alternative automobiles specificly.

To someone directly involved with the creation of Plug in, Electric cars, or someone wishing to own one, sooner than later, Reinerts comments may rub them the wrong way. However, this debate reminds me much of the story of the blind men taken to an Elephant and each touching a different area and asked to describe what they think an Elephant is like, you get very different descriptions. None, completely correct, but each correct from each individual POV.

In any case, if you view the debate from the POV of mainstream "transportation" I think Reinerts comments are at least valid if still debatable. If you are viewing it as an affluent consumer, awaiting the next wave of mass produced, or speciality produced alternatively powered automobiles, you are probably going to disagree.

My opinion is based on looking at the success of The Prius. It's not unimportant to realize that The Prius, first generation, started out as a very modest automobile. This was not an highly expensive or upscale automobile and I think that was wise of Toyota. Toyota took at the time what was a rare and almost alien technology and forced it to be mainstream and strived to make it affordable. So eventually they sold a million plus of them, now Hybrids are spreading to other models, other manufacturers and almost everyone knows what you are talking about when you say "Hybrid".

My opinion and guess is that it will be a similar evolution with full plug in electrics. On the road to any mainstream plausibility you are probably going to see some mass producible, but relatively spartan incarnation that get's adopted by a small faction of first adopters. Then you simply see if that is the direction "Transportation" is heading.

It is a more difficult prospect with full plug in, as opposed to Hybrid, if only for the obvious reason that the beauty of Hybrid, even for early adopters, is that they are designed ultimately to handled like an ICE automobile. You don't have to worry about plugging them in, you basicly refuel, just a whole lot less.

This "reality" I think upsets a lot of people that are dreaming, hoping, and supportive of the idea of full plug in electrics.

It's not that I don't think change can't happen rapidly. It can. But usually not rapidly unless reality forces that change. As the world exists now, I'd say I think the idea of plug in electrics IS plausible, the reality does and has existed. The viability of mainstream adoption and useage isn't immediately plausible. That's my opinion and my watermelon in this apples and oranges debate.

 

You're right Bob ... resources (on the Q.T.) may be going elswhere. I'm thinking R&D is being spent for a showdown that's upcoming: It'll be against Mitsubishi & Nissan:




Why get 100mpg ... indeed !!
When you soon may not have to burn Gas any more, at ALL

Between 80%-90% of folk's trips are under 40 miles, one way. Why go the extra cost of both ICE AND electric motor, when you can drop the ICE all together. I don't think Toyota wants to get caught with their pants down, like GM has been ... especially if/when fuel prices continue to spiral upward.

Nissan says they're going to hopskotch right past PHEV's all together, and that whom ever comes out with a low priced and decent quality EV first, and fully supports it?? They've got the lead ... just as Toyota did (and continues to do) with the Prius.

The EV high speed ThInk is already selling in the EU.
Toyota sees the writing on the wall

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Don't forget Subaru...



They're planning on selling about 170 this year in Japan.

 

You most likely don't recall when horseless carriages required a person to walk in front of them with a red flag to warn others of its approach. You most likely don't recall the crank handle which was the reason few women were ever going to drive cars. You might remember the hideous vehicle accident death rates of the 1960s and you might recall thick brown smog closing down visibility to a few metres in large cities.

The man with the flag went for a rest and never returned, the crank handle is a museum piece and about 50% of car drivers are women, the road death toll where I live was under 1/3 of what it was in the late 60s although there are more cars on the road, and smog is very rare due to emission control requirements.

Now do you remember nickel cadmium batteries with there memory and short life? Nickel Metal Hydride were a quantum leap on them but were still prone to losing charge in storage and had low energy density. Chemistry improved over time and capacity improved, now there are NMH batteries which hold their char for weeks. Along came Lithium Ion which charged quicker, held more energy and lasted better, but they sometimes caught fire, the battery developers found the solution for that and now we use our Lithium batteries with confidence in our laptop computers (which have as much computing power as a mainframe of the 1970s) and other devices.

I will stick my neck out here and make a prediction. There will be batteries that can charge from high output outlets in 30 minutes and give an electric car a range of 400km (250 miles), within the next 20 years, maybe 10.

Spread across the country will be charging stations to which are attached eateries, amusement parks, and discount shopping centres. You will pull into a space, plug into the outlet, swipe your credit card or what ever form a credit card will take in the future, the car will tell the receptacle how much "fuel" it needs and you authorise that charge then go for a meal or do a little shopping while your car battery is "refuelled". After 30 minutes or so you and the car are ready for another 4 hours behind the wheel, beautiful!

 

Well said, Pat.

Like many, I too think that the EV represents the personal transport of
the future.

Surely, in the early days of the automobile one of the objections to its
adoption was the limited number of places fuel was available.
Contrasted to the ready availability of fodder, it was everywhere, the
scarcity of gasoline limited the early auto to urban use.

That's where we are right now with EV's. On the surface, the
condition's just don't appear to be right. Deeper down, things can be
seen to be changing; longer range batteries, charging stations, shorter
charge times, perhaps even changes in the patterns of where people
live and work. Today, there are more people moving back into Baltimore
than are leaving. This is a reversal of a 40 year trend.

In the earliest days of the auto-mobile, electric and gasoline cars contested
for primacy. Just starting the gas car with the crank was an act of bravery
as you risked a broken arm or worse. For the most part, women were precluded
from driving them. On the other hand, the electric car was a dream to start
and run; just throw a switch. But they were slow and heavy. One single,
simple invention changed everything; the electric starter for the gas engine.
Suddenly, anyone could hop into a gasoline powered car, push a button, and
drive away. The rest is history.

Is there a single, simple new piece of the EV equation that will allow it to
become the plain and simple solution? Probably not, although a new high
energy density, light weight electrical storage medium would come close.

[Edit: late breaking news;
New Lithium-Air Battery Has Huge Storage Capacity from:
CleanMPG Forums ]

If all the Detroit 3 had a EV in the works with release dates in the near
future, things would be different. We would be deluged daily by ads
touting the various features, real and imagined. People would be
clamoring to be the "first on their block" to own one. (Note that this
has a urban/suburban bias where it just so happens these vehicles
would "fit" the best at this time.)

In time, this will be the case, at least to the extent of there being a lot
of publicity.
Will GM/Chevrolet actually produce a Volt? Who knows.
Will Ford have an offering? Yeah, probably.
What about Chrysler? A real long shot, except maybe the Fiat connection.

Meanwhile, virtually all the Japanese auto makers, and many
European, Korean, and Chinese ones have demonstrated some kind of
prototype in the works, or already operating on the streets, on nearly
every continent... save Antarctica.

Pity the poor penguins who will be left to operate on fish oil vice
electricity.