SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. Colorado Boo

    Colorado Boo Member

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    I just looked yesterday and we now have over 4,000 variants!

    I keep hearing stuff like, "If you get the vaccine, you may still catch it but it won't be as bad" or "If you get the vaccine, you're less likely to die if you do catch it."

    Real world situation where I work. Our secretary and her family of 7 flew to Tennessee a few weeks ago for a family wedding. When they returned, they all got sick, and then got tested and all 8 had covid-19. Of the 8, 6 were fully vaccinated and 2 were not. None of them had to go to the hospital and the sickest were the 6 already vaccinated. The 2 unvaccinated had the mildest symptoms and recovered the fastest. I'll say that, again, the 2 unvaccinated had the mildest symptoms and recovered the fastest!

    This brings up a lot of questions about what we're being told about the vaccines, IMHO, and I'm not getting any booster until I find out more information and talk to my family doctor about it.
     
  2. jdenenberg

    jdenenberg EE Professor

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    Were the two unvaccinated family members young? If so that answers your questions. There are a lot of variables besides vaccination status.

    JeffD
     
    #5182 jdenenberg, Nov 24, 2021 at 4:33 PM
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021 at 7:49 PM
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  3. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    There are also big questions in this story that you didn't answer. As jdenenberg asks, if those two unvaxxed were young, that puts away all mystery.
     
  4. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Hard to reconcile? Hawgwarsh.

    The first quarter of 2020, the pandemic was in its infancy here: 0 deaths in January, 1 death in February, 5000+ in March.

    But New Years Day 2021 arrived at near peak pandemic. Peak death rate was the middle of January, when vaccines were just barely beginning the mass rollout. We had over 200,000 deaths January through March this year.

    upload_2021-11-24_14-35-1.png
     
    #5184 fuzzy1, Nov 24, 2021 at 5:32 PM
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021 at 8:00 PM
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  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i hear you, but vaccines are developed for a population. in the studies, we see the statistical results. they aren't perfect, and with almost all vaccines, that's the case. there are people who are naturally immune to most any disease, but we don't know who they are. and unfortunately, the vaccine studies did not include the delta variant, so we're left with actual clinical numbers. from what i'm seeing, on the whole, vaccinated people are doing better than unvaccinated.
    i get my 3rd shot dec. 3, even though i realize there is some risk.

    our daughter has to fly to chicago in a few weeks, i told her to sit next to an open window :cool:
     
  6. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    ... or ...

    ... they had wartime censorship, covering it up. Except for Spain, which being neutral, allowed its press to cover it freely. Which might be why it is often called the Spanish Flu, not the American or Kansas or Fort Riley Flu.
     
    #5186 fuzzy1, Nov 24, 2021 at 8:53 PM
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2021 at 12:07 AM
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w

    “A burning question is does it reduce vaccine effectiveness, because it has so many changes,” says Aris Katzourakis, who studies virus evolution at the University of Oxford, UK. Moore says breakthrough infections have been reported in South Africa among people who received any of the three kinds of vaccines in use there, from Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer-BioNtech or Oxford-AstraZeneca. Two quarantined travellers in Hong Kong who have tested positive for the variant were vaccinated with the Pfizer jab, according to news reports. One individual had travelled from South Africa, while the other was infected during hotel quarantine.

    Researchers in South Africa will also study whether B.1.1.529 causes disease that is more severe or milder than other variants produce, Lessells said. “The really key question comes around disease severity.”

    So far, the threat B.1.1.529 poses beyond South Africa is far from clear, researchers say. It is unclear whether the variant is more transmissible than Delta, says Moore, because there are currently low numbers of COVID-19 cases in South Africa. “We’re in a lull,” she says. Katzourakis says that countries where Delta is highly prevalent should be watching for signs of B.1.1.529. “We need to see what this virus does in terms of competitive success and whether it will increase in prevalence.”

    This is how RNA virus work. They mutate quickly and natural selection leads to a constant battle with vaccinations and treatments.

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    If it follows the script, B.1.1.529 should be more transmissible (as designed by it's manufacturer) AND less virulent.....also by design.
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I just checked Johns Hopkins and though South Africa shows a small blip this past week, it would ordinarily be just 'noise.' I'm wondering how this or any new variant is detected?

    Our world health organizations must have some especially sensitive detection systems in place. Contact tracing of unusual breakthrough infections?

    Bob Wilson

    ps.
    God is a clever devil.
     
  10. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    He has an interesting way of making these things less virulent "by design" though. He sends them in all flavors, and lets us do the work of, umm, failing to propagate the more virulent ones as much. So, from the vantage point of history, eventually it will look like the variants were nicely getting less virulent over time.

    Just looks a tad different to the people tapped for the job of making that appear to be the case.
     
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  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Much to my surprise:

    COVID-19 : Measuring viral RNA to predict whi | EurekAlert!

    Viral RNA can be quantified in blood and relates to COVID mortality risk. Textbook view is that (any type of) RNA outside cells is moments away from disassembly by RNAase enzymes (textbook view they are ubiquitous). If (any) extracellular RNA persists long enough for blood detection, it may have implications for RNA vaccines. And many other things. Cue "Phantom of the Opera" organ music.
     
  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Here is a very strong statement: "Viruses are among the strongest sources of selection pressure in human evolution." Please give it a moment to sink in. Those reading here are not on ventilators for COVID and might spare a few moments for reflection.

    We are here, now and many. We got here as descendants from ancestors who avoided or survived viral over reach during their baby-making years. By becoming many many more we have increased the 'target size' for any number of frisky viruses. Now we depend on anti-viral medical science to stand in for our earlier fewness and unconnected ness. Uneeda link:

    Genetic ancestry shapes immune response to in | EurekAlert!

    While not glooming and dooming, we as large tasty viral targets require anti-viral medical science for persistence of the human enterprise. Work out the details. Fewness and unconnected ness are matters of the past.
     
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I suspect they may have been measuring viral load rather than RNA in blood. But I am not their reviewer.

    Bob Wilson
     
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    My dear friend Bob, you are wrong to suppose so. Authors measured RNA from blood by RT PCR. Good thing that neither of us reviewed this manuscript. Better thing that there are now thousands of RT PCR thing-doers, of which ~2 (would be a typical number) gave it a go.
     
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  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    fizer says they only need 100 days to adjust vaccine for new variants
     
  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    we don't need medical science to continue human enterprise, but it does reduce natural selection
     
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Simply absurd, @bisco. Take a bow.

    For the second part, many aspects of technology reduce natural selection in humans and accelerate it in other species. The landscape is pretty complicated. 'Money' sports (pro and college and olympics etc.) can be argued to accelerate natural selection in humans.

    Not quite sure what to make of internet, video games, cell phones. Do young folks very adept with their thumbs meet others similar and procreate more? This small corner of the internet includes pushes in both directions. The landscape is pretty complicated.

    But do not even consider trying to run 7.7 billion humans, or increase to 9.7 mid-century, without medical science. OMFG.
     
  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    most people live beyond typical child bearing years without the help of a doctor
     
  19. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Nearly everything I'm seeing suggests that, despite the proliferation of hookup apps, the actual overall rate of procreation-type activity is actually down. All the other screen time seems to be interfering.
     
  20. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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