SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Heard an NPR story on virus in Middle East; not cheerful. While Jordan and Lebanon satisfied Gompertz inflection they must be watched in case it unravels.
     
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Oh @bisco, do keep up. Hubei is Chinese Province containing Wuhan. Only Hubei got the big (reported) numbers. I could show data for many other Provinces including Yunnan and they would be boring. Plus not everyone accepts reality of those data

    Treating China >1.3 billions as one country would be misleading anyway, as there is one hot Province Plus about 50 cold ones.

    I made a very useful compilation. Don't poop in the punchbowl.
     
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  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Gompertz may have outlived is own mortality projection:

    Benjamin Gompertz Explained

    Hitting 86 back then was not at all common. His job was knowing that.
     
  4. noonm

    noonm Senior Member

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    I'm still holding my optimism in check.

    Two things that are giving me pause:
    • The wealth of evidence indicating we are only capturing a fraction of the total infected
    • I'm not convinced we won't see another surge/peak after reopening the economy
    If we hit the summer with all countries over their peaks plus no resurgence in China, then I'll relax.
     
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  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    That is fair enough. Countries having inflected and apparently soon to do so are Euro and N Amer.

    Many other areas that to not yet have a handle on first wave. Not all of those have superb medical systems. Nor superb population controls in terms of physical distancing.

    Lots could still go wrong even without a second wave.
     
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  6. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    There is a couple, but never had a collie myself

    Holey, as in permeable?

    There might be a genetic test now, in place of blanket "not to collies".[/QUOTE]Yes, and yes there is.
     
  7. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Many of them would not be asymptomatic, rather not having their symptoms correctly identified, thanks to inadequate testing or inadequate overall health care systems.

    And the same problem applies to the dead. I've seen several reports suggesting that the death counts are likely severely under reported, even here. Many of the recently dead were never tested. If no test, then no report as a covid-19 casualty.
     
    #1467 fuzzy1, Apr 6, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2020
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  8. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Sand Pounder

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    Isn't that heartening...
     
  9. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    North America is not a country. There have been two countries in North America for over 150 years.
     
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  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Izzat all you got? Canada US and Mexico comprise N Amer and I rather suspect I am watching their COVIDynamics closely. Perhaps even enough.
     
  11. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Hard to see a satisfying long term solution if/until an effective vaccine is developed/deployed. That could be at least year away and hopefully reached before the virus spreads further to world populations achieving a similar level of immunity first.

    In the mean time, do we maintain a similar level of physical distancing and mitigation measures?

    Will be interesting to see what happens if/when some regions open up to business as usual after achieving phase 1 control.

    Remaining a fan here of releasing those with immune credentials from physical distancing and letting kids go to school after ~summer and peeling back further restrictions as incidence, death, hospitalization surge, etc. data support.
     
  12. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    So, you split one country and combine 2 to compensate? (Mexico is in Central America) o_O:whistle:
     
  13. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    A crew member from the New York hospital ship Comfort is now infected. :(
     
  14. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Sand Pounder

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    With some sorta wrist bands??

    And is immunity after having COVID19 established? I thought there was still questions about that?
     
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  15. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    Made in China, of course?
     
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  16. noonm

    noonm Senior Member

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    Its possible to manage without the shutdown and physical distancing as long as we start doing what should have happened from the beginning (mass/fast testing, quick contract tracing, isolation of all infected/exposed individuals).

    However, it would require a coordinated, effective response among all 50 states + territories with the Federal government. If even one state fails at doing this right, it could reignite the exponential growth countrywide. I just don't have any faith that this can be done right now, so the more draconian state-wide/country-wide shutdowns are necessary.
     
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  17. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Few questions among immunologists and virologists even before proving this retrospectively.

    Dr. Fauci has been asked this question multiple times and maintains he is highly certain based on the fact that every person with every known prior viral infection that has recovered has had some duration of immunity from a year or two to lifelong.

    My concerns are that although we could “manage” the situation it doesn’t solve the problem long-term as internationally the same would have to be done and in the meantime we would have to maintain problems with backfeed into the country.

    Immunity at large population scale will need to be achieved to solve the long game problem.
     
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  18. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    'bill gates foundation spending billions to fund 7 virus vaccine factories to compete with each other'
     
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  19. noonm

    noonm Senior Member

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    Sorry, I should clarify that it would only have to be managed until we achieved 80% immunity through vaccines + recoveries, which is still months, if not a year, away. International travel would still be a problem, but its far easier to restrict/control that than domestic travel.

    I'm also not saying its feasible in the U.S., but I do know its possible because Singapore, Taiwan and (mostly) South Korea are doing it. However, it does appear to require a much more centralized approach than the U.S. can currently muster with a far more intrusive monitoring and tracking of individuals than Americans are comfortable with.
     
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  20. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    If you are going to pick nits...

    Central America is a subsection of North America. Or South America, a few do place it there. Of course, some continent models have North and South as just subsections of America, with Central America being the strip of countries between Mexico and Colombia. Most other definitions of Central America exclude Mexico. The only one including Mexico in CA I found was the UN's geoscheme. Which is for simpler bookkeeping, "the assignment of countries or areas to specific groupings is for statistical convenience and does not imply any assumption regarding political or other affiliation of countries or territories". Then Mexico is one of the three countries in NAFTA, one and two.

    Looking at the actual tectonic plates, Mexico is clearly part of the North America Plate. Some parts of it aren't on that plate, but then neither is part of California.

    Central America | History, Map, Countries, & Facts | Britannica
    Central America - Wikitravel
    Central America - Wikipedia
    United Nations geoscheme - Wikipedia
    North America - Wikipedia
    North American Plate - Wikipedia
     
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