SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    Here is another anti-viral drug on trial. Avigan (or it's generic name Favipiravir) is from Japan and it's been used for treatment of influenza in Japan and China already. It's effectiveness against COVID-19 is still largely unknown, but some pre-clinical and anecdotal clinical data exist.

    Mass. Hospitals To Launch Trial Of Japanese Drug Aimed At Fighting COVID-19 | CommonHealth

    According to FDA site, in the US, there are 10 drugs currently in active trials under Coronavirus Treatment Acceleration Program (CTAP), and 15 additional drugs in the planing phase.
     
    #1541 Salamander_King, Apr 10, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2020
  2. farmecologist

    farmecologist Senior Member

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    ..I'm assuming your comment is sarcasm? :whistle:
     
  3. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Drugs working with the immune system could be the case, but they don't help when the system goes out of control. Cytokine storm is in the news currently as it may be happening in some COVID patients as it happens some flu and other infections, plus from other causes.
    Cytokine release syndrome - Wikipedia

    Definition of cytokine storm - NCI Dictionary of Cancer Terms - National Cancer Institute
     
    #1543 Trollbait, Apr 10, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2020
  4. spiderman

    spiderman wretched

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    No not all.

    2 Chronicles 7:13-14
    13 “When I shut up the heavens so that there is no rain (read fires in Australia, CA), or command locusts (Africa) to devour the land or send a plague (Covid-19) among my people, 14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.

    I would only be referring to "my people" - believers here on the site which I know there are many. If your not, feel free to join; the invite is open to all.

    Absolutely. Judgement is close at hand. But again, I only insist on those who believe on the one, true God. Invite is open Bobby.
     
    #1544 spiderman, Apr 11, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 12, 2020
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    This bad boy is not The Judgement. It is a wonderful opportunity granted by (opinions vary) to prepare for larger problems later. Will our preparations for another, later, will be adequate?

    Not for me to say. but this one seems clear as a horrible stressor and yet also as informative. Less than a million will die from this. Shall we just call that a great success and do no more?

    Apt viruses not yet using human lungs are many, and that resource is more more more than readers may realize.
     
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  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Mark 6:11
    If anyone will not welcome you or listen to you, shake the dust off your feet when you leave that place, as a testimony against them.​

    Time to turn up the squelch and "wipe the dust off the feet" . . . <PLOINK>

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1546 bwilson4web, Apr 11, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2020
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  7. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Again??? :whistle:
     
  8. noonm

    noonm Senior Member

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    Not sure if serious as this is like wishing someone to "have a good funeral".

    How I was taught Good Friday is for mourning, Easter is for celebrating.
     
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  9. Prodigyplace

    Prodigyplace Senior Member

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    I noticed they love to pull scripture out of context and without reading thoroughly.
    It says "my people" also have a land "your land" Christians do not own the US.
     
  10. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Senior Member

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    Guess we'll know one way or another by Monday . . . (n)
     
  11. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Sand Pounder

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    This is absolutely irrelevant, just something that came to me doing 3 am try to get back to sleep exercise:

    If you take the letters in "WUHAN", flip the W to be an N, you can spell "HUMAN". :)
     
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  12. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Unlikely. More likely we will know within 4-14 days. That should be how long it takes to see if any additional clusters appear.
     
  13. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  14. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    Gives several examples of past diseases where such storms were noted. Am I right in grouping those together in the new-to-humans pathogen category?

    The article names a couple of genetic conditions that might make a particular individual prone to storming. But I wonder how much could be attributed to novelty of the pathogen, leading to immune system being slow off the starting block, pathogen replicates exponentially, immune response then happens and finds itself fighting against overwhelming numbers, voiding the warranty?
     
  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I would say yes, @ChapmanF But not that storms are restricted to novel pathogens. Severe peanut allergies 'storm' and they are surely not novel.

    Evidence of storms in 1918 pandemic is after the fact and very likely, but metabolic markers now used (when time permits :eek:) were unknown then. Not news to readers. I'd say that medicine has been easing towards molecular for about 70 years. May not be a very useful observation, but it will become much more so in coming decades.

    Adhering marker molecules to polypropylene wells is huge technology. Buy stocks in medical diagnostics I guess.
     
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    For countries passing Gompertz inflections, I was waiting to post this until US joined. That still seems at least 2 days in future, so here is second batch.

    Headlines are that Canada, Nederlands and Portugal have. Iran may be as well if their reporting is considered accurate.

    US will join countries on the sunny side but for me it will require ~2 more days with < 32 thousand new cases reported. Updating my earlier Gompertz, Finland has stretched out and may have 72 hundred cases instead of 33 hundred. I don't know if policies have become looser there, but y'all don't want to do like that.

    ===

    ... Day of inflection … Cases then … Projected final cases … Frac peak/final

    San Marino .. 19-Mar .. 109 … 349 ….. 0.31
    Sri Lanka .… 22-Mar .. 72 …. 3215 ….. 0.33
    Australia ….. Mar 26 … 2799 … 7094 … 0.39
    Thailand ….. Mar 26 …. 934 …. 2961 … 0.32
    Reunion, Fr . 27-Mar .. 135 …. 3425 ….. 0.32
    Tunisia …….. Mar 29 … 278 ….. 846 ….. 0.33
    Greece …….. Mar 29 … 1061 … 3045 … 0.35
    Israel ………. Mar 30 … 4247 .. 12925 … 0.33
    Nederland .. Mar 31 .. 11750 .. 34615 … 0.34
    Portugal ….. Mar 31 … 6408 .. 20142 … 0.32

    Philippines .. 31-Mar .... 1546 … 35761 .. 0.27
    Argentina …. Mar 31 … 820 … 2718 ….. 0.30
    Armenia ……..Mar 31 … 482 … 1466 …. 0.33
    Estonia ……… Mar 31 …715 … 2139 …. 0.33
    Albania ……. 1-Apr …… 243 … 3727 …. 0.33
    Nigeria ……. 2-Apr ……. 139 … 3421 …. 0.33
    Honduras …. 3-Apr …… 219 … 3541 …. 0.40
    Montenegro . 3-Apr ….... 140 … 3409 …. 0.34
    Mauritius ……. 4-Apr …. 186 … 3545 ….. 0.34
    Chile ………… Apr 5 ….. 4161 .. 12137 … 0.34
    Ireland ……… Apr 5 …. 4604 … 13272 … 0.35
    Algeria ……… Apr 5 …. 1251 … 3531 ….. 0.35
    Kazakhstan … 5-Apr …… 531 … 31369 .. 0.39
    Kenya ……… 5-Apr …… 122 … 3324 ….. 0.38
    Bosnia Herz .. 6-Apr …… 662 … 31747 .. 0.38
    Iran ………… 6-Apr … 58225 . 3157505 . 0.37
    Morocco …... 7-Apr …… 1141 . 33084 …. 0.37
    N Macedon . 7-Apr …… 570 … 31470 …. 0.39
    Canada …… 8-Apr … 17049 . 348348 …. 0.35
    Cyprus ……. 9-Apr …… 526 … 31443 …. 0.36
     
  17. farmecologist

    farmecologist Senior Member

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    Yikes..ok...maybe you should retreat to your bunker and I'll let you know when the scientists say it is ok for you to come out. :rolleyes:

    Do mods still exist here ? This thread *really* needs to be moved where it belongs....
     
  18. Raytheeagle

    Raytheeagle Senior Member

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    Religion and politics don't mix:p.

    Keep it on the adult side(y).
     
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    What is the meaning of posting country-icidence rates? Gompertz is PURELY empirical modeling. At best it shows how things may go, until better work becomes available or might never come. Each country has its own borders, border-control policies, distancing/containment/lockdown policies, and these early analyses may illuminate what works better even while this drama is still in play.

    On that, France, UK, Sweden and Denmark resist turning Gompertz' corner. Each will, late = sad, but things will be learned that must not be forgotten when the next bad boy appears.

    ==
    OK you got infections, what fraction will die? Range persists from 1 to 11% and that also MUST TEACH us for future bad boys.

    Most readers are in US and there, case fatality rates are within 3.7 to 4.2%. Middle of global range.
     
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I see a need to discuss human pandemics as environmental problems, right here. We are on page 78, and I don't know about others but this topic has pushed me to learn more. And to talk about it and learn from other posters.

    I see no need to sanction posts intended as helpful whether they call to possibly helpful medicines or to higher powers. Instead, be happy that we've not had Alex Jones' colloidal silver or money churches begging money for magical cures here.
     
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