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Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.
true. you can only go with the limited knowledge at hand
Well, I hope that's enough for the herd immunity. If my calculation is correct. Projected total confirmed case in the US is ~1.2-1.5 million. 50-85 fold of that is only ~128 million people at most. That still leaves ~200 million uninfected people in the US. Most exparts thinks for very communicable disease like COVID-19, 80%-95% of population need to be infected (or immune by immunization) to reach the herd immunity.
Herd Immunity: What It Means for COVID-19
they will be if they all go back to work
but seriously, if the numbers being projected for asymptomatic cases holds true, it may be easier to slowly get businesses back open without creating a second wave of surge hospitalizations
Agreed. But, I get a feeling that the country is going to opening up soon even without conclusive answer.
at least certain states. the northeast, not likely for awhile. idk how places with large tourist attractions will be able to pull anything off when crowds are the only kind of business they have.
<AHEM>Interesting speculation not backed up by empirical studies.
that's what i do best here ar scientific chat . the studies are underway though.
They got chloroquine. It's similar, but known side effects diverge from hydroxychloroquine. We know how chloroquine works against malaria, but aren't quite sure with the other. Both can cause nausea and damage the retina, but chloroquine can also cause deafness, for example. Chloroquine (Aralen) vs. Hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil) for COVID-19?
Rita Wilson said she didn't know if the drug helped or not, but she did experience the nausea and vertigo while on it.
Rita Wilson describes coronavirus chloroquine side effects - Los Angeles Times
Two items, probably not as unrelated as they first appear:
(1) While the first announced U.S. death was February 29 in a nursing home in my area (another later determined from Feb 27), the earliest known U.S. deaths have now been pushed back to Feb 6 and 17, in Santa Clara County, California:
2 Californians died of coronavirus weeks before previously known 1st US death
Both died at home, with no travel history that would suggest a connection to this virus at that time. At that time, "testing for the virus was very limited -- generally restricted only to people with a known travel history and seeking treatment for certain symptoms, and available only through the CDC." [emphasis added]
(2) A particularly insidious condition from this virus is “silent hypoxia” -- dangerously low blood-oxygen levels without the usual signs of distress until very late. Patients are getting fairly advanced pneumonia before feeling bad enough to seek treatment, or even presenting with seemingly unrelated issues, only to discover that it is being caused or complicated by this virus:
The Infection That’s Silently Killing Coronavirus Patients
"A vast majority of Covid pneumonia patients I met had remarkably low oxygen saturations at triage — seemingly incompatible with life — but they were using their cellphones as we put them on monitors. Although breathing fast, they had relatively minimal apparent distress, despite dangerously low oxygen levels and terrible pneumonia on chest X-rays."
This leads to a suggestion for rapid screening for "silent hypoxia": common pulse oximeters.
probably not surprising with the amount of people there traveling in and out of asia
'scientists are calling out scientists over two new antibody studies in california'
Alaska going to start opening up Friday with limited services...
Our governor says barber shops and hair joints can open tomorrow by appointment only, but the large city mayors say not so fast.
Start with private businesses where distancing can be controlled, then if that works, move on to public/private.
But nothing should be done until proper testing and contact tracing are sufficient
'plasma therapy saves life at worcester, ma hospital'
That's sorta how it's supposed to work, isn't it?
Governments can ORDER businesses to stay shut, but there is no mechanism to order them open - and cities, towns, and counties have fairly broad powers to keep businesses closed even if the states allow conditional re-opening.
That's a FEATURE, not a fault.
They also can't force people to show up at "open" businesses. What happens when you open up an economy, but still no one shows up?
Not many are willing to risk getting COVID-19 for a haircut.
Agreed. It's just our two largest towns, OKC and Tulsa that say no. Need a cut, drive outside of the city limits.
People are starting to go nuts and a shaggy doo is apparently worth the risk to some. I guess they want to look good in the casket. I got mine cut the day before it was shut down so I'm good for quite a while.
I've often told folks that Huntsville and Madison County are relatively swift, our 'silicon cotton patch.' But every 10-20 miles outside of town, the cultural calendar turns back 10 years. So there is an empirical test:
98,000 people (245 cases, 4 deaths) - Marshall County (*)
373,000 people (205 cases, 4 deaths) - Madison County
* - Marshall County has chicken processing plants where the INS did big worker raids until the owners stopped it.
Calculate the rate per person.
Absolutely. I've been watching that ratio since this began. Oklahoma metro area raw numbers look worse in comparison but it also has the most people and land size.
PS, my zip code has only had 17 cases total and 14 have recovered. Interesting stats on the state site.
Moore, and south OKC make up the majority of cases in OKC area