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Discussion in 'Toyota Hybrids and EVs' started by bwilson4web, Oct 13, 2021.
For those interested in Toyota and EVs ... consider the source.
Once I've stopped laughing:
$ 13,600,000,000 USD = ¥ 1,541,430,800,000 JPY reported at 1:00 minute in the video Bob posted "Toyota is testing a Solid State Battery" thanks BW
To put that in better perspective If you see a car for sale in JP for ¥ 1,500,000 that equals $ 13,234
at today's exchange rate: 1 Dollar = ¥ 113.33 Yen
Does anyone else feel the heat of accelerated development lately, in whatever time frame you want to contain it?
It has been discussed on another thread, but for context here is an article as part of that discussion went off the rails.
Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment
Let's put it in perspective. Toyota produced the rav4 ev with tesla's help in 2012 a modern version of the older rav4 ev experiment from 1997. Let's use the later model for learning to build the bz4x, it still is going to come out a decade later. That is not accelerated it is a little slow.
Battery prices back in 2012 were very high compared to today. In 2013 tesla planned the gigafactory in nevada to reduce prices for the up coming model 3 that would need cheaper batteries. It broke ground in 2014 and took until 2018 (4 years) to reach high volume production. I'd say 2018 would have been a good time for toyota to have the bz4x out, and if successful it would be selling over 100,000/year. They had the tech to build prototypes in 2012. Lessons learned should allow toyota to do factories from breaking ground to volume production to 3 years. The battery factory in nevada now produces 50 GWh/year. Toyota only needs 4 such factories to produce the 200 GWh/year goal. Tesla giga berlin should be able to ramp to 100 GWh/year. Tesla has not announced how much the battery factory in austin should be able to produce but they are going to start limited production in around a year.
I say to toyota welcome to the party. I hope you are successful and build even more capacity than the 200 GWh/year. I would expect the bulk of the production toyota is building is not solid state, that may not come until close to 2030 if not later.
I guess that's one way to put it into perspective.
I wouldn't want to try reversing the Tesla Toyota positions in a few of those perspectives.
I don't understand. What was incorrect?
Toyota's goal of 200 GWh/year of battery production by 2030 is easily doable, as tesla will have that in 2023. That is not accelerated. VW, GM, and Ford have all announced faster plans.
As for bev development, toyota was first with a bev SUV with the RAV EV in the late 90s, they were first with a modern one with the RAV4 EV in 2012. Since then there have been the model X and Y, VW ID.4, hundai Kona and kia niro, Ford Mach E, chevy bolt EUV, etc. 4 years is fast development, 10 years goes from leadership to following. Still toyota's best selling vehicle is the rav4 and it outsells models from those other makes. The bz4x could be great. Of course we know it can't be a high selling in 2023 because toyota will not yet have enough batteries. I am hoping it sells well in 2024.
Is toyota ahead in solid state? I have no idea. At least 5 companies claim they are ahead. None of them are tesla, but you can bet tesla will license the tech if its great as long as the company allows. We just know that toyota experienced known problems with solid state batteries in their prototype bev. They have said there first solid state vehicle will be a hybrid or phev able to work well with a lower energy battery.
For me it is a question of a Toyota EV having similar price-performance to my current EVs: 2014 BMW i3-REx or 2019 Tesla Std Rng Plus.
It's not surprising to me you might not remember history from any other possible perspective.
And nothing was incorrect, A few things about Toyota and Tesla early history you might have forgotten about or left out for arguments sake. But that's only obvious to anyone whom still might be completely convinced that buying a Tesla Vehicle is the only way to save the world from itself, for arguments sake.
Sandy Munro mentions Toyota doesn't just have a one, 3, & 5 yr plan - they have a 100 year plan. Think Hydrogen infancy - 1960's ... over ½ century ago .... that means Toyota still has possibly another 40 Years of R&D before they may give up on hydrogen cars. 97+ more years to develop solid state batteries rather than go with current Tech.
Please give us that perspective using facts.
What kind of strawman argument is that? Nowhere have any of us said tesla is saving the world. That is an argument from old auto and big oil to detract and delay.
What I was saying is if Toyota was moving at their normal pace they would have had the bz4x out in 2018, instead of promised for a year from now. If you order a tesla model Y today in the US, delivery is not until April because demand is so much higher than manufacturing capacity. That could be toyota's market and could have developed it using Tesla's batteries and controllers inexpensively and switched to their own if they developed something better.
Chairman of the Toyota board Takeshi Uchiyamada has been pushing hydrogen for 30 years.
I don't think anyone at Toyota is nearly as committed to solid state batteries. I can not fault them for R&D in this area. They may be great, but toyota just last month based on the prototypes issues said their first use will be in a hybrid not a bev. Their first us battery factory will be lion for hybrids not solid state.
bollore' showed in 2015 they could make solid state vehicle batteries. That is not the trick. Some are still being used in busses.
Solid-state batteries are already being installed in city buses: Update
The problems with solid state are likely to be solved by someone. Today Lithium iron phosphate batteries are the standard for busses, they are heavier than bollore' LMP but they are a lot less expensive and easier to maintain.
solid power demonstrated safety, but byd showed safety of LFP cells doing similar tests.
Ford and BMW partner Solid Power demonstrates the safety of its solid-state battery tech
I would say in 5 years these solid state batteries will be good for performance phevs where cost does not matter as much. In a decade they could dominate, or liquid electrolyte batteries may improve and stay less costly so that solid state never takes off. I would think solid state would be in tablets or smart watches before high volume cars.
Demo cars are great but they are not yet for sale at the local dealer or online. But one thing bothers me, the relative density of charged and discharged solid state batteries.
The only diagram I've seen of lithium metal electrode, solid state batteries shows a distinct lithium layer that shrinks and grows. The other electrode appears to remain a constant volume. Now one can be fooled by 'PowerPoint engineering'. Just changing the volume of one electrode without changing the other leads to mechanical stress:
With minimum volume, there is a risk of separation of the parts. At maximum volume, the internal pressure might split the battery case. Of course limiting the volume change is possible at a reduced charge/discharge, Ahr capacity. A similar problem exists with silicon electrodes that grow 3x larger absorbing lithium ions.
They were put in cars that were part of a ride share system in 2015. They are in busses still running. The cells have a density of 250 wh/kg. This is higher than inexpensive LFP cells but Panasonic's NCA cells used in tesla model 3/Y have an energy density of 260 wh/kg. The bellore' cells are reliable, safe, and cobalt and nickel free, but must be kept in a hot operating range which is not compatible with the way we use our cars for short trips. Toyota and other solid state energy researchers, are attempting higher energy density and better operating temperature range, as are bellore and hydro quebec.
Think of pouch type cells, instead of cylindrical or prismatic. These allow the electrodes to grow and shrink without undo mechanical stress. Pressure may be required to keep good contact, or as SES (solid energy systems) uses a hybrid system with a solid anode and electrolyte then a liquid electrolyte and conventional cathode can force contact. The question is really material science not a fundamental physical problem.
I was not aware that "material science not a fundamental physical problem". <GRINS>
You bring up a good point that a battery case can be designed to maintain a tolerable range of pressure for pouch cells. Say a spring, piston, or screw mechanism. Other battery chemistries avoid or minimize this density problem. The battery assembly charge density including any pressure mechanism, its weight ... not just the cell alone.
Do you recommend any technical descriptions of the operational solid state battery vehicles?
vvillovv said: ↑
It's not surprising to me you might not remember history from any other possible perspective.
Why? You like to argue about things most seem to have forgotten?
Yes that should be considered in weight and volume. I don't think its too bad though. The problem comes getting the tech out of the lab.
Nothing very detailed. This is the only one that gives energy density of the packs.
Bjørn Nyland Checks Out Solid-State Battery-Powered Mercedes eCitaro
Other data is that it is a 650V system and Mercedes expects them to last 10 years. The energy density is a little less than the 170 wh/kg of tesla long range packs using Panasonic NCA, but these have no nickel or cobalt and use less lithium so costs would likely be lower than nca if produced in volume. The operating temperature though is a killer for cars but not for busses or long haul trucks. Energy density per unit volume is likely better than NCA or NMC, but tesla's structural pack may take care of that.
Toyota's prototype charged and discharged much faster and did not have the temperature constraints, but ... they are still working on reliability and cost.