1. Attachments are working again! Check out this thread for more details and to report any other bugs.

Stop whipping China

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, May 13, 2024.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,278
    15,470
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    China is seeing a significant shift in energy sources:

    upload_2024-5-13_5-43-49.png


    Wind and solar are now cheaper than coal. Nuclear has a future with next generation nuclear cycles. Replacing uranium-water plants with thorium-salt will significantly reduce risks and improve thermal dynamic efficiency. China had already gone with supercritical steam generators that are substantially more efficient than older systems.

    Higher temperatures in molten salt and supercritical steam significantly improves efficiency:

    Eff = 1 - ( Tc / Th)

    Assuming a cold temperature of 100 C (i.e., boiling water at 1 bar), we get:
    • 43% = 1 - ( (100+273) / (374+273) ) :: subcritical (ordinary)
    • 54% = 1 - ( (100+273) / (538+273) ) :: supercritical (current practice)
    • 63% = 1 - ( (100+273) / (760+273) ) :: ultra-supercritical (research)
    • 373k 647k 811k 1033k :: kelvin conversions of C
    Improved efficiency reduces how much heat is needed to generate a kWh of electricity.

    Bob Wilson
     
    zeng likes this.
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    108,223
    49,198
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    Okay, but that doesn’t let them off the hook politically
     
    Rmay635703 likes this.
  3. BiomedO1

    BiomedO1 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2021
    1,386
    757
    0
    Location:
    SacTown, Ca
    Vehicle:
    2021 Prius Prime
    Model:
    LE
    Do those black plastic water tanks on roofs count as solar???? They've been doing that for decades now. Easiest way to tweak the numbers is to adjust the equation.

    Just saying... Their building industry has basically stopped. 2014, 2020, and 2022 seems to be outliers, since it looks like they were almost able to keep up with energy demand.
     
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,278
    15,470
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Great powers will always have issues. But compared to the leaders the 'old farts' remember, China is less bad.

    Bob Wilson
     
  5. Rmay635703

    Rmay635703 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2016
    2,588
    1,607
    0
    Location:
    Somewhere in Wisconsin
    Vehicle:
    2013 Chevy Volt
    Model:
    N/A
    Less bad but getting more agitated and ambitious.

    Supposely the various chip limitations 2018-present have very recently strengthened Chinese motivation to make chips they have never made before that compete side by side with our domestics, one of their phones is causing issues for a portion of Apples profit centers.

    similarly Chinese solar is a reflexive result of us putting more limits on importing their panels which drove more use in their homeland.
    I guess the benefit of a rival or competitive power, mildly antagonizing them.

    Been talk of refloating, repowering and retrofitting old battleships to save money on bulk ammunitions for “reasons”.
     
    #5 Rmay635703, May 13, 2024
    Last edited: May 13, 2024
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    108,223
    49,198
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    i have no issue with them economically, it's their end game that concerns me.
     
    Rmay635703 likes this.
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    108,223
    49,198
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
  8. zeng

    zeng Junior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2021
    43
    10
    0
    Location:
    Kuala Lumpur
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    I look at facts and numbers, not listening or believing in 'words' .
     
    bisco likes this.
  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    108,223
    49,198
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    and what do they tell you?
     
  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,016
    3,513
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    "Do those black plastic water tanks on roofs count as solar?" No I think solar in top post is all photovoltaic (PV).

    In my Yunnan travel, PV increase has recently been huge. Fixed panels about 1 meter above ground on aluminum frames.
     
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,016
    3,513
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    See here:

    Entity List | Bureau of Industry and Security

    for lists of foreign entities That US people are not allowed to interact with. I went through list for China and only saw of interest BGI. This is Beijing Genomics Institute now in Shenzhen. They have more DNA sequencers than any one else in world (last time I checked). A US based researcher with DNA to decode would need to go somewhere else.
     
  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,016
    3,513
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
  13. Rmay635703

    Rmay635703 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2016
    2,588
    1,607
    0
    Location:
    Somewhere in Wisconsin
    Vehicle:
    2013 Chevy Volt
    Model:
    N/A
    Because it’s popular and because of increased concerns with China Biden is expanding Tariffs against the nation.
    There was apparently a multi year rage fest internally on the issue because of the competing demands for/against and the proven devastating inflation caused by Mr. T’s tariffs . We are in unknown territory because we have become incompetent in many areas, this type of assertive tarriff should have been done 45 years ago during our last inflationary period to keep certain base infrastructure intact. Doing it now requires business to create from scratch infrastructure and as of yet we haven’t been able to react quickly enough and the costs are still high and potentially decades long to bring back massive internal supply chains.

    Biden hits Chinese electric cars and solar cells with higher tariffs - BBC News

    No president has been re-elected during a recession and despite a recession being inevitable due to a variety of bungled policies spanning back to 2018, we are in store for a doosie given the sheer size of the auto and commercial real estate failures that dwarf the 2008 crisis .

    There are already increasing layoffs and increasing numbers of people who are underemployed unable to access enough hours of work.

    There is a payday “app” bubble that has been used instead of CC and loans (which have been closed off to most people) And a jump in CC nonpayment . Even classic Freddy/Franny are doing a bit of creative accounting and policy to keep the 10% of delinquent payees in homes and off the red write down books.

    Doing what appears to be the “right thing “ does suck sometimes.
     
  14. Danno5060

    Danno5060 Member

    Joined:
    May 31, 2023
    175
    68
    0
    Location:
    Wyoming
    Vehicle:
    2011 Prius
    Model:
    Base
    China is done. I only feel sorry for its inhabitants, because they're screwed in just about every way imaginable.

     
    Rmay635703 likes this.
  15. Rmay635703

    Rmay635703 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2016
    2,588
    1,607
    0
    Location:
    Somewhere in Wisconsin
    Vehicle:
    2013 Chevy Volt
    Model:
    N/A
    Population bomb indeed.

    fasterplease.substack.com/p/fewer-and-faster-global-fertility

    wsj.com/world/birthrates-global-decline-cause-ddaf8be2

    Video highlights things I’ve assumed would happen for years, China is closing even more to its own peril. So saying it’s less bad, that sentiment may not last long if they are trying to further unify power ignoring all the breaks in infrastructure and even population decline. We could be pushed back decades.

    China in general has big collapses going on and is dumping currency, treasuries and other asset classes at accelerating rates.

    sadly it’s not just China as Japan has its own issues brewing which will potentially expand into a regional issue.

    The trouble is you don’t want to destabilize China too much (don’t want billions of angry people) and with the instability in the world in general it’s right to try to get our key infrastructure back in place while at the same time doing so may lead to instability here as well as we don’t really know what other countries will do under stress.

    China has been trying to dump a lot of unwanted inventory without a proper dealer/reseller market into places like Europe which reeks of desperation.

    we in the us have been somewhat isolated from devastating economic issues in other nations because everyone wants dollars due to spiraling out of many foreign currencies, if that reverses we could rapidly devolve into a crash.
     
    #15 Rmay635703, May 14, 2024
    Last edited: May 14, 2024
  16. John321

    John321 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2018
    1,161
    1,185
    0
    Location:
    Kentucky
    Vehicle:
    2008 Prius
    Model:
    Two
    Deleted
     
    #16 John321, May 14, 2024
    Last edited: May 14, 2024