Tesla Model 3 Production in 2 Years

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by ggood, Sep 4, 2015.

  1. ggood

    ggood Senior Member

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  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i'm in!(y) as long as it's as large and versatile as the prius.
     
  3. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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  4. JimN

    JimN Let the games begin!

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    Tesla hasn't hit a targeted production date yet. In about 2 years we should have a pretty good idea of how much longer it will be before the Model 3 starts rolling off the production line.

    Sergio's link quoted Tesla as saying the Model X was expected to be in production in 2013. The first vehicles will be delivered September 29, 2015.

    My guess is Model 3 deliveries in 2019 or 2020. Reservations in 2017.
     
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    ouch, that's a bit of a ways off.:( on the plus side, that would give me about 3 years with pip II. who knows, i might not be willing to switch from that.(y)
     
  6. ggood

    ggood Senior Member

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  7. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Passenger space should be larger. It will have 2 trunks, so it will hold lots of stuff, but not as much. Tesla ususually comes in late and more expensive, but gives you more stuff than they originally promised. Still if you plunk your deposit down fast in march, you should still get the tax credit.
     
  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    nice as early as ... now they are saying 2017. They slipped 2 years, the prius slipped 1.5. I'm not sure why the prius slipped, but the model III slipped for the obvious reasons, tesla had no idea when the model III would come out, but if the S didn't sell they needed to shift production. That $30K price was also rediculous, as it assumed a battery maker like panasonic would build bigger factories for it, then pass the savings along. Tesla now needs the gigafactory, a whole other venture to bring the cost down. That is a new risk and a moat. What has the stock price done with the slip? $28 to $241. Hmm I'd call that great execusion. No one expected the S to do as well as it has, and there were high risks that the model III would never be built. I'd say the business plan is right on track, but products are running a couple of years late. I really don't expect volume in the model III until 2018, but tesla can collect deposits for the model III in march and use the money to fund development instead of issuing new stock or bonds.

    http://www.rbbi.com/folders/engn/fcells.htm
    oopsie. That was a wall street journal article from 1998. Toyota had a fuel cell car that could go 310 miles back then, using relatively cheap methanol. Now they have something that can go 312 miles on a tougher test ;-) but with much more expensive complicated fuel. I think compared to that tesla is doing just fine. Just don't expect 2017 to really be 2017. I'm thinking the 2012 bluster before first customer ship was half the time promised.
     
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  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i'm not enamored enough to plunk down any benjamines until i see exactly what i will be getting.
     
    #9 bisco, Sep 4, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2016
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  10. JimN

    JimN Let the games begin!

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    No, the tax credit is determined by when the car is placed in service.
     
  11. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    whether new car projected 1st delivery ... bridge completion ..... projected barrels on a new drill site .... it seems to be the rule of thumb where it's not quite as ideal as hoped.
    .
     
  12. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Tesla was brand new to the auto business. I expect their estimates are getting better and better and would be surprised if the Model 3 wasn't hitting the roads in 2018.
    The design of the Model 3 will be much easier than either the S or X.
    The gigafactory is their biggest internal challenge. Getting a good supply chain will also be a big challenge.

    And yes, I'll be putting down a deposit the first day they accept them.
    I've always liked smaller cars. The Model 3 will be smaller, more efficient, and will have better batteries.
     
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  13. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Yes, but Tesla's creidts will run out during the Model 3's first gen. Putting down a deposit to get the first ones ensures you will also get the full credit when you get the car.
     
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  14. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I wouldn't say it guarantees it. It does make it more likely.
    Depending upon how much they can ramp up production of the S/X and how smoothly/quickly the gigafactory goes into production mode, it might be the full credits will be gone.

    Most likely they will be available for the first Model 3s. But if everything runs smoothly and the sales continue to grow, or if the 3 is delayed, I could see Tesla selling 200k vehicles before the debut of the 3.
     
  15. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    There have been 53,000 model S's sold in the US that qualified for the credit. I would think 10,000 more by the end of the year, making it 63,000. Next year projections are of 80,000 world wide S and X, say half of that comes to the US we are at 103,000. I have a feeling that waiting list for model 3 will get long, as there were 12,000 model X reservations back in march, those ordering in March won't take delivery until next year. I don't have good numbers for 2017 and 2018, that depends on how the X does and when the 3 makes it out, but yes its a risk if you want an model 3, and don't want the signature, to not make a reservation. Those wanting all the bells and whistles go to the front of the line, but that is going to cost more than $50K.

    The seriously crazy fast schedules for the X and III were out before the S was even shipping. That means that neither project was funded or had personelle at the time. Never belive the schedule on a not yet funded project, especially if the company has yet to even hire employees to work on it. Once the X was funded we got more realistic schedules 2014 for the X, 2017 for the III. The X is a year behind, people are working on the III but some haven't moved over from the X yet, so I don't trust 2017 yet. In march tesla should have a much better idea, and I expect that is when they will offer pricing and details and a probable slip. You can't even order the car until then, so only share holders should be worried about slips. A end of 2018 is good for me as a share holder, a slip until 2020 though is some really bad news. I'd wait until march for an honest timeline, by then they will have figured out people and funding, and be far along on design.

    IMHO the model 3 is tougher than the X in many ways. The X had only the gull wind doors and awd to figure out. They could use really expensive materials. The model 3 is all about engineering trade-offs and not simply trying to build the best. I've worked for companies that have built the best, and its tough to use the same people to build something good enough but much cheaper. The nice thing for tesla is there are probably a lot of good people at plants in toyota US, Honda US, GM, Ford, etc that understand low cost manufacturing that tesla can hire away. Going from S to model 3 would be easy for toyota to do, but it might take them 7 years. Tesla has never done anything like this before and they are hoping to do it only 2 years from now. I'm betting that they do it, but are late.
     
    #15 austingreen, Sep 6, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2015
  16. JimN

    JimN Let the games begin!

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    That's the problem. Tesla is built on the philosophy that "good enough" isn't good enough. They need the Gigafactory churning out batteries to bring the unit cost down. Maybe they can use cheaper materials but a $35000 Tesla has to have (at least) the same look as the other $35000 cars on the market because nobody is going to drop $35000 on a car with the interior and features in a $20000 car.

    I expect a base Model 3 is going to be very base--everything will be an option. Tesla already charges extra for most paint, maybe they will start charging for black and white.
     
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  17. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Toyota charges for white on the prius.:confused: They have to have at least 1 color for base price, and that will be black. Remember henry ford said the customer can have any color as long as its black, when the quick drying black paint allowed them to produce more black cars an hour. Still the black ones look pretty good. I've been seeing a lot of blue ones lately though.

    I think the model 3 base is going to be well equipped, but there will be a ton of options that people will want to pay more for. Nav, autopilot, D (all wheel drive with a little extra acceleration and range), bigger batteries, air shocks, leather, upgraded sound.
     
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  18. Ashlem

    Ashlem Senior Member

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    I agree with austingreen and JimN regarding the Model 3 base model having the bare minimum, but probably still better than other automaker's base models. And then being able to add on lots of accessories which will be where the real profit is, much like it is on regular cars.

    Sure, you could get the Model 3 for $35k if you just want a barebones version. But I suspect a lot of people are willing to shell out another $5-10k to get AWD (I know I will living in Wisconsin where winter is a real season) and various other upgrades.

    Tesla had to make a "great" car, or it would easily have gone the way of Fisker and Coda, as well as various other failed EV startups. I suppose it will be tougher to make a "great" Model 3, but I believe they can pull it off.

    But what I really liked about Tesla is how Musk forced the other automakers to take EV's much more seriously when the Model S started eating away at other luxury automaker's sales. Remember how "nobody wants EV's?" was the standard mantra?

    Now almost every single one of them has at least a plug-in hybrid in the works, because it turns out that yes, people will buy EV's, if you don't make crappy ones that also cost an arm and a leg.
     
    #18 Ashlem, Sep 6, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2015
  19. cmth

    cmth Active Member

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    Anyone else here interested in putting down a deposit for a Model 3? I have been a long time fan of everything Toyota and I have also been ignoring EVs & Tesla for a long time but have finally decided I will put down a deposit for a Model 3.

    My decision is based on the following:
    * Been waiting for an AWD Toyota Hybrid for a long time but no luck it seems, hopefully there will be a Model 3 AWD option
    * I have had a Prius Gen 3 for almost 7 years now so been-there-done-that & really don't like how Gen 4 looks
    * Currently looking at developments in the C-HR, again disappointed it offers no Hybrid AWD.
    * In our household, we currently have two hybrids. No harm replacing one with an EV with decent range
    * I've always wanted a bit more performance for when required, Toyota gives me no solution. Lexus is too expensive to buy as well as maintain (servicing etc.)
    * General attitude of Toyota product design increasingly targeting very specific demography & limiting features to certain markets e.g. no AWD Prius outside Japan
    * Toyota's new design language trend specifically of Gen4 Prius & Mirai and abandoning the direction they said they would go by showing us NS4 for the past 5 years
    * Model 3 deliveries expected only in 2018 & deposit is refundable should I decide I don't want it

    Only reservation at this point is on reliability of Teslas which seems poor compared to Toyota (from what I have read) but hoping things will improve in the next few years.
     
    #19 cmth, Mar 30, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2016
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  20. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Double edged sword - the notion of the damnable delay word. Development ... production .... maintenance .... the process is 'rushed' ... and we get things like Apolo astronauts burning to death on the launch pad ... or 'O' rings being reused causing death before getting into orbit. Don't rush, and the stock tanks. Either way it's a hand wringer.
    teslaaaah
    :p
    .
     
    #20 hill, Mar 30, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2016
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