The Great PHEV Race....who wins for you?

I don't know that for either scenario, I get too excited about rushing out in full-gotta-haveit-mode for a PHEV. For your scenario 1, I'd like the Volt to be out a model year before I purchase (sorry GM fans) to let someone else get the bleeding edge bugs out. For your scenario 2, an EV mode with only 9 mile range and 42 MPH is not going to cut it enough to get me out of my current Prius assuming it is still trouble free and getting respectable mileage.

There's a lot of "it depends" with any kind of answer to your question. If gas is expensive enough, then either option might look much much better than it seems today with $2.25 gas. I also feel like cars shouldn't be a disposable item, so the longer I keep one, the better it is in some sense for the environment.

I'm probably with you in that I'm more willing to gamble on the Toyota product, where I'd want to see the Volt prove itself. I'm quite convinced that Toyota could build a decent if not excellent PHEV Prius today if they wanted to. Chevy, I'm not quite so sure of, they seem to have a lot more catching up to do, and what I've heard of their existing hybrids does not seem to impress me that much.

 

The closest thing I'd go with is scenario 2.

My Prius is fine and I'm good with keeping it for ten years, as I've done with all of my previous cars. However I would consider trading it in sooner if the Prius comes out with LiIon batteries or a plug-in or both.

Really not interested in the Volt. The Volt sounds fine for a second car, but I only have one car and it just isn't enough to meet my single car needs. The 40 mile range is the dealbreaker.

 

I think that the big issue in this PHEV discussion is the expiration of the NiMH patent in 2009 with the restrictions on the size of traction batteries which are presently in force. The Li Ion battery is still an unproven technology as none have been in use for a significant length of time in a vehicle. NiMH batteries have been proven and while they are heavier, they are not insurmountably so.

 

If EV technology is going to support a car that is acceptable to more people, then battery technology is going to have to advance. The same old battery, proven or not, is not going to do it.

I expect eventually to have an EV that can do what my Prius can do now. Over 100 mile range on a charge, quick recharge, freeway speeds and still have the same cargo capacity I have now.

Whatever the Volt ends up being and whenever the Volt is introduced, there will be Japanese counterpart, either Toyota or Honda, and it will in some way be superior. Whether it is range, cargo capacity, speed, recharge, whatever, I don't know. GM should be the leader, but they're not. They are scrambling to play catch up.

 

I absolutely love the concept. I envy Darrell his RAV4EV (or anyone who has an electric car!). Almost all of my daily driving would be within the battery range, and I'd really like NOT to buy gas!

That being said, I sure hope Toyota comes out with something similar. I'd love the Prius to have a 40- or 50-mile EV range before the gasoline engine kicks in. I know GM has EV experience with the EV1, but I trust Toyota's technology WAY over GM's. Also, the Prius was a big purchase, and I will probably need to drive it for at least 7 or 8 more years while I save up enough money to replace it.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(efusco @ Feb 17 2007, 12:26 AM) [snapback]391902[/snapback]</div>

At first glance I though the Volt was a traditional midsize passenger car. But that's dead wrong. Classed as a compact car, slightly smaller footprint than the Prius, about half a foot lower, specs say it seats 4 (not 5). The legroom (presumably rear) is listed at 31.5", versus 38.6" in the Prius. The rear legroom is an inch shorter than the Cobalt on which the body is based. Reviews I see of the Cobalt say the rear seats are basically for children, that's it. And, it has a 160 HP motor, much greater peak output than the Prius, 0 - 60 in 8 seconds.

From my stodgy perspective, the Volt is a sporty small car with vestigial rear sets. That is not a good fit with my lifestyle. Almost all of our driving is to-ing and fro-ing around town with the kids. My son will soon be too tall to be comfortable in a small rear seat. And, sitting half a foot lower in SUV-land is going to make it that much harder to drive.

So, from the standpoint of utility, the Prius wins.

On the other hand, we want an EV. Take the Volt, run the gas tank dry, don't refill it, and voila, instant EV. Really, I'd worry about varnishing up the fuel system by letting the gas sit in the tank for months.

Another thing I'd want to be sure of first is that the Volt, operating in electric mode, actually reduced C02 emissions, relative to a Prius or PHEV Prius. The C02 reduction from going to electric propulsion is not that huge if you start with an efficient baseline like the Prius - maybe one-third less C02 in going from Prius to a 30 mile PHEV Prius, at US national electrical generation mix. So if the Volt were heavy enough or inefficient enough, it might not actually generate less C02 than a PHEV Prius. I don't know whether electric motor size affects low-load efficiency the way gas engine size does, but I'd guess not. So, I'm guessing it would reduce my C02 output. But I'd like to see hard data on that. If, in fact, it generated more C02 than a PHEV Prius, then I'd be reluctant to buy it. But chances are that it'll generate modest C02 savings.

From the standpoint of efficiency, I'd guess the Volt has an edge over the 9 mile PHEV Prius.

In the grand scheme of things, a 40 mile Volt is farther down the road or technology than a 9 mile PHEV Prius, particularly with speed limitations on the Prius EV mode. Basically, it makes the PHEV Prius look like a modestly successful retrofit, where the Volt is a greenfield design. As I understand these things, you'd end up running the ICE routinely in the PHEV Prius. The Volt just looks smarter to me.

From the standpoint of technology, in terms of the movement toward EVs, the Volt wins. It is an EV, with an onboard generator set.

So for me it comes down to this: would I buy the EV technology I want, in a less useful package than the Prius? If it weren't for the lack of rear seating, I'd opt for the Volt in both scenarios. As it stands, though, what's the point of buying a car that won't meet my needs? I'd reluctantly opt for the Prius over the Volt based purely on the lack of functionality of the Volt, not on the technology. But if GM would put that tech in a slightly bigger package, I'd buy it over a PHEV Prius.

And I still say that an EV or PHEV or hybrid minvan is where the next big chunk of the market is, and that the car companies are missing a big opportunity there.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(efusco @ Feb 17 2007, 10:23 AM) [snapback]391996[/snapback]</div>

Well, something about debating the rear seating room of a concept car just seems a bit towards the silly end. Looking at the specs for the Cobalt on edmunds.com, I see

Front Head Room: 38.7 in.
Front Hip Room: 49.5 in.
Front Shoulder Room: 53 in.
Front Leg Room: 42 in.

Rear Head Room: 35.7 in.
Rear Shoulder Room: 49 in.
Rear Hip Room: 46.1 in.
Rear Leg Room: 32.2 in.

Luggage Capacity: 13.9 cu. ft. Maximum Seating: 5


By comparison, an '07 Prius

Front Head Room: 39.1 in.
Front Hip Room: 51 in.
Front Shoulder Room: 55 in.
Front Leg Room: 41.9 in.

Rear Head Room: 37.3 in.
Rear Shoulder Room: 52.9 in.
Rear Hip Room: 51.6 in.
Rear Leg Room: 38.6 in.

Luggage Capacity: 14.4 cu. ft. Maximum Seating: 5

Yeah, the Cobalt's a little smaller, but not that much smaller. But seriously, given that the Volt's just a concept for now, who can say?

 

Two things:

1. Toyota has a decade of R&D and customer feedback on hybrid technology, GM is a johnny-come-lately. I'd wait until the Volt has been out a year or two before considering it.

2. I'm still mad at GM for what they did to the EV1

So unless the Volt turns out to be *hugely* superior to the Prius PHEV, I'm sticking with Toyota.

 

Since my interest is on utilizing electricity more, the fact that the electric-only top speed is 42 MPH doesn't mean much. There's still a benefit when driving faster anyway... as countless owners have already demonstrated after concluding a mountainous decent.

Part of the problem is the "40 mile" range isn't realistic. In the winter, battery-capacity is less to begin with. But then when you add the amount of electricity required to run the heater, the range shortens the too much.

The concept of a "series" hybrid will have to remain a concept longer than some people hope. In the meantime, the "full" hybrid will continue to evolve.

In other words, it way too premature to make any decisions yet.

Seeing the actual production models to choose from should be very interesting.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(efusco @ Feb 17 2007, 11:23 AM) [snapback]391996[/snapback]</div>

Leave it to GM to bungle the rear seathing. I'm having an EV1 deja vu. Oh wait, I NOT having my deja vu because the Volt is still just a P.R. drawing! "Look what we are really really really going to make! ... some day.) I wish GM would, but with a REAL back seat. I'm throwing my $$$ at Toyota.

 

Well, the press I heard from GM said the Volt was 10 years out (sorry can't sight source). I'd be amazed to see GM keep to a 10 year road map, since I don't think the company has 10 years left under current management. I think they will hit chapter 11 before they release the Volt.

As for Toyota, I agree, that unless their hand is forced, they won't go to Li Ion. That pack would cost $10,000 and has serious fire issues. At this point it's all about the battery. If a new cheap, dense, safe battery were presented, I think Toyota would jump on it. Give them a year of R&D, then another year on design and I think they could work it into a MY2009, MY2010 car. That's if a breakthru where to happen today. As the year progresses, the decisions would have to get pushed back to MY2010 or MY2011.

In the end, if you have a mildly used or new car, I think you could hold out for a PHEV. If your car is middle aged, I think you'll have to go through another car before you can get a PHEV.

If you happen to have a 2004 Prius, I'd do the CalCars upgrade at about 100k (cost=$10k-12k), assuming they've addressed the fire issues, which I think they have. That will give you PHEV and less engine use, should get another 10 years out of the car.

 

We need to switch our current "second car" in 2-4 years time frame. We will stretch it to 4 years to be able to get an EV car for under $45K that gives at least 20 real world miles, and a charge time of less then 8 hours. That way one of us can live without gasoline during the week. The size of the car is an issue but minor.

So on paper the Volt IS MUCH MORE INTERESTING then the Prius, but GM better have it on the market within 4 years or I will buy the best other car on the market.

If you ask me today I think my next car (unfortunately) will be a Prius. I don't believe anything GM says and I think it's simply a way to take some steam out of toyota (smoke & mirrors) and Tesla's whitestar seems like it will take much longer as well.

I HOPE I'm WRONG

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Beryl Octet @ Feb 17 2007, 10:54 AM) [snapback]392001[/snapback]</div>

Fair point. I was interested enough to track down a Cobalt when I was out and about yesterday. Not being a car person, I had no idea what a Cobalt was. The layout looked just about the same as the Escort I used to drive - car has a high "beltline", you sit pretty low to the ground. The Cobalt I saw had one front seat all the way back, or so it looked. With the front seat back, the space between the edge of the back seat and the front seatback looked just big enough to slide my calves through - just like an Escort. I'd definitely have to sit sideways in the back. On the other hand, yeah, we could get our family of four in there right now and probably for some years to come. So, fair point. You'd lose 6 or 7 inches of rear legroom vis-a-vis a Prius, but two adults/two kids would fit OK. I'll reserve judgement until I can sit in it.

 

I think that it is possible that GM will have the Volt available around 2010; however, I doubt that it will be for sale. I expect that it will only be available for lease just like the EV1 was.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(chogan @ Feb 18 2007, 07:26 AM) [snapback]392304[/snapback]</div>

I was considering a HCH before deciding on the Prius, so I'd have to see how much trunk room etc. Room for children or adults in the rear seat for short trips only would work for me. I think I actually had a Cobalt rental car on a business trip last year, but I honestly can't remember too much about it. If the Volt is going to be on a Cobalt platform, a wagon option would be nice. Isn't the HHR basically a Cobalt wagon? A PHEV HHR vs. a Prius. That would be interesting.

 

There are differences in philosophy between GM and Toyota plug-in approachrs. GM Volt will use the last drop of electricity before using the on-board generator (Diesel ICE). This requires a very high power and durable battery pack and A123 System cells can do that. Why would it require a very high power battery pack? Well, if the ICE are to remain turned off during quick acceleration, the battery pack has to deliver all the 160hp to the electric motor. Will Bob Lutz relax his electric car stance and allow ICE to come on during the first 40 miles? I guess we will find out in a couple of years if the Volt is not a vapor concept.

Toyota's design in Prius is different. Current Prius is mechanical dominant (ICE=76hp / Battery=34 peak hp). I envision the next generation of "standard" Prius becoming more powerful on the electrical side but overall it should be mechanically dominant. Let's say ICE=85hp, Battery=40 peak hp and total system output of 125 hp. The plug-in version of next-gen Prius should have even higher power battery pack since there will be more cells. For this I think Toyota might keep the current 1.5L ICE. Let's say ICE=76hp and Battery = 80hp). During quick acceleration, Plug-in Prius ICE would come on to create a total combined power of around 150 hp. I think Toyota would focus on the overall efficiency / power / synergy, rather than short-sighted the first 40 EV miles. Did you notice my estimation of the Plug-in Prius has higher total power output than the standard version? I think it will make the extra cost of the Plugin version an easier sell.

I think in terms of Li-ion battery technology, GM might be in the lead but lacks packaging and cooling experience. Toyota has a commending lead in the whole battery packaging and cooling with 10 years of experience (now working on 4th generation).

I believe A123 System cells to be used in the Volt are superior to what Toyota have (Manganese Li-ion) in high power discharging and charging (capture more regenerative braking). Manganese Li-ion cells can hold more energy and reliability (life) should be about the same. One more thing to note is that although A123 System is an American company, the M1 cells are still manufacturing in Asia.

However, the plug-in Prius won't need extremely high power battery pack due to the elegant design of the Hybrid Synergy Drive. The gas engine and the battery pack can still work in synergy thanks to the planetary eCVT. Manganese Li-ion cells should meet or exceed the plug-in Prius requirements. Since the Plug-in Prius would not demand a lot from the battery pack, it will be more affordable and realistic. EV range might be less than Volt but I think Toyota will balance out the range vs. price to target the general public. The key point is that HSD's EV range is flexible and it can go as low as 1 mile range all the way to as much as the battery pack can offer.

If GM decided to cut down the Volt's EV range to 20 miles due to the battery pack cost concern, the pack will only be able to deliver 80 hp. The diesel engine will need to come on during acceleration and it would defeat the whole Volt concept. GM will not be able to stretch it and label it as an electric car. E-flex is now at the mercy of the battery technology. The current A123 System cells are technically capable of meeting minimal 40 miles requirement but not less. The cost of the 16kWh pack is another concern which can make or break the Volt of becoming a production car.

Will Toyota unveil a new Plug-in design (Hybrid-X) at the upcoming Geneva Motor Show in March? Will the Hybrid-X be the new Corolla Hybrid using the same Hybrid Synergy Drive?

Dennis