The payoff for plug-in hybrids: 95 years?

I'd be curious to see how they calculated that... $1,168 for 12,000 miles @ $3.00/gal equates to just under 31mpg if using gas only. How does this make sense?

Regardless, the prices they're talking about in this article makes the Aptera look better and better.

 

I think there is some bad assumptions being made in that math. First if you are getting a plug in mod for 15K you should have a range of about 60 miles on a charge (if not more). Assuming that you have a daily commute of 60 miles you are using NO gas. So lets take a one year look:

260 working days x 60 miles per day = 15,600 / 45 MPG Pris EPA est. = 347 gallons saved a year x $3.50 a gallon $1,214.50 saved per year

which gives you a full return of $15,000 in 12 years 4 months 6 days 6 hours 34 minutes and 50 seconds. give or take.

While not a money maker, or saver for you, it wouldn't take much to make a big difference. Say if the conversion could be done for $5,000.00 then the pay-off is just over 4 years.

 

Bah, we have gas at 9$ per US gallon (Finland). That, and wasn't the price for hymotion kit around 9000$ when it comes around?

 

The calculation equation has been discussed here before.

The Great Hybrid Showdown: Chevrolet Volt vs. Toyota Prius
and the formula equation below.
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/the-gr ... ota-prius/


Hypothetical economic scenario one: six weekly round trips of 35 miles each. In this example, the Volt would never need a drop of gasoline (except for the occasional auto-programmed runs to cycle fuel and oil). If we inflation-adjust today’s electric rates, a recharge will average about one dollar. Annual “fuel†cost: $312.
A Prius would take 220 gallons of gas @ 50mpg to cover the same 11k miles. Assuming $4/gallon in 2011, annual fuel cost is $880. The Volt’s $22k purchase premium over the Prius would take 39 years to amortize. A $40k “subsidized†Volt would take a mere 32 years. These calculations don’t include interest, either on the higher purchase price of the Volt, or on the money saved (opportunity cost).
Even if we slash electric rates in half, to 50 cents a charge, it would still take over thirty years to amortize the Volt’s higher purchase price. Comparing the Volt to the plug-in Prius is even less favorable to the Chevy: it would take 58 years to recoup the Volt’s $14k price differential.
Scenario Two: a short daily commute of twelve miles round trip (3744 miles annually) and an additional 3744 miles on long-distance trips @ 50mpg. The Volt’s total annual combined “fuel†cost is $400. The regular Prius’ annual fuel cost is $600. It would take 110 years to amortize the Volt. And the plug-in Prius, which can make the short commute all-electrically, trumps the Volt altogether, with fuel costs of $372. And it costs $14k less.
Scenario three: a long-distance commute with a daily round trip of seventy miles, plus 6k of long-distance miles (23.5k annual total). The Volt’s fuel costs run $1465 annually. The Prius’ are $1880, resulting in a 53 year payback for the Volt. And the plug-in Prius accomplishes the task with a $1488 fuel bill, only $23 more than the Volt (609 year payback!).
Scenario two and three point out the Volt’s two biggest weaknesses: its expensive and heavy battery pack becomes increasingly less cost-effective when its maximum range is not fully utilized (Scenario 2). And its serial hybrid drive is no more efficient (if anything, somewhat less so) at continuous highway speed than Toyota’s HSD (Scenario 3). The Volt’s efficiency losses of generation, conversion, battery storage, re-conversion to AC, and electric drive-motor losses equal or exceed the minimal efficiency loss of the Prius’ mechanical transmission.
All of the above scenarios point out the glaring economic disadvantage of the Volt due to its high cost. Its price would have to come down to $28k to justify a (barely) reasonable ten-year payback in the Volt-optimal Scenario One, and substantially less for the others.

 

Like most new technologies, the early adopters are paying a pretty big premium and suffering a bit as the bugs are worked out. Since we are still at least a year or two out from any major automaker actually offering this product, I think you'd have to call this particular technology pre-bleeding edge at this point.

- Conversion costs are very high, due to small volume hand designed and installed product. Batteries are also very expensive in their current low volume production. It seems to me the estimates I've seen for a 20-40 mile PHEV factory Prius are a $3-5k premium in volume production.

- Current conversions are limited in their utility by having to work around all of Toyotas existing systems. A max 34mph EV speed is a big example of this. A factory production vehicle would have the luxury of being purpose built w/o such problems.

- PHEVs are even more dependent on driving style and routine than HEVs. What they are best at by far is shortish trip up to EV range at low speeds, long time sitting and charging, repeat. Under these circumstances you will get virtually infinite mpg (if you can stay in EV and not have to warm up the ICE, as google's apparently don't do). Substitute high speed for low speed for up to twice the EV range and you will be talking 80-120 mpg. That might sounds like a pretty limited set of operating parameters, but what do most of us do every day? Drive 10-20 miles in stop and go traffic, park for 8 hours, drive 10-20 miles in stop and go traffic, park for 12 hours. I want to say the numbers are somewhere in the 50-70% range for how many of our annual miles traveled are related to daily commutes. If you look at Google's data, you quickly see why they may be less well suited to fleet use. One day they will average 140mpg, the next 45mpg. The numbers are all over the place depending on who's driving, how far they drive, how fast they drive, if they remember to plug in etc.

Generally a pretty good article, if a slightly sensationalist title.

Rob

 

Hi All,

Not sure I have heard of a Prius PHEV mod for $15K and 60 miles. I have heard of one for 30 miles and that money.

The issue with the PHEV payback is the daily cycle. Short range Prius operation has poorer mileage - say 35 mpg. This is where a PHEV can run electric most of the time and have the largest payback.

So, a 15 mile or less commute in a mild climate is ideal. Shorter range in a desert climate , due to A/C load.

 

Here's your 95 year pay off:
Drain the best / sweet crude for 95 years. Now what does your CPA tell you that we have left ... dire straits ?
Now if you made a pure ev, which has NO 400lb hunk of ICE, NO gas tank, radiator, smog equipment, no replacement of ANY of those parts, which starts becoming necessary around 80K - 100K miles etc, but instead, all you have are batteries and their management ECU, a controller, & a motor ... I'm thinking maybe you pay a $2K - $4K "premium". But once you factor off-peak grid charging or photo cel recharging? Whooo there! ... big oil better re-brain wash us after thinking THAT way