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The Real Risk of Toyotas

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by nerfer, Mar 5, 2010.

  1. nerfer

    nerfer A young senior member

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    From LiveScience

    They say at least 50 Americans have died in crashes related to Toyota recalls. That's not a happy number, to say the least. But to put it in perspective:

    The 50 deaths occurred since 2000, for an average of five deaths per year. This is a miniscule relative risk of death: According to the National Safety Council, about 10 times as many people (468) die from falling off ladders each year, and 32 people are killed by dogs annually. A driver is about 10 times more likely to be killed by lightning than by a recalled Toyota.
    :
    This knowledge is of course no consolation to families affected by the problem vehicles, but understanding the real risk should calm fears. Part of the reason that the public is so concerned is that people are very poor at accurately assessing risk, and overestimate the relative risks of many dangers. People will buckle their safety belts, yet text on their cell phones and read newspapers their while driving.​
     
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  2. burritos

    burritos Senior Member

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    NPR Vehicle Acceleration Complaints Database : NPR
     
  3. PriusLewis

    PriusLewis Management Scientist

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    Seeing the recall problems as strictly a risk calculation obscures the morality and legal issues. If all deaths were simply risks, then a homicide would be treated no differently from a lightning strike. That is, we would not attempt to blame or punish someone for the lightning strike. Viewed strictly as risk, then why do we attempt to find and punish a person that intentionally shoots another? Because the difference is in the morality involved. Our legal system places a stiff penality for someone intentionally taking another's life, while holding everyone blameless for an "act of God."

    In the case of a death by a car, the determining cause must first be found. If the driver mis-applied the pedals, the manufacturer is held harmless (unless an argument could be made that some defect in the construction or position of the pedals easily confused the person). If, however, the manufacturer was made aware of a problem and refused to do anything about it and deaths continued to occur, then the manufacturer may be held responsible for failing to take action (through inaction, it can be argued that the manufacturer intentionally allowed further people to die).

    Personally, we all make risk decisions every day. However, we do so based on a preception of the safety of the conditions involved with that decision. We have a reasonable expectation to believe our cars are safe (at least to the level dictated by safety agencies). Most reasonable people would not consider a car that might go full throttle without a means to stop it as safe. Discussing the likelihood of that happening does not make this condition safe, nor does it render Toyota blameless (assuming this is what is actually happening to some of their cars).
     
  4. burritos

    burritos Senior Member

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    Annual Causes of Death in the United States | Drug War Facts
    What? No congressional hearings on ibuprofen?
     
  5. nerfer

    nerfer A young senior member

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    Interesting site. So by # complaints about unintended acceleration per 100K vehicles sold (in 2009), VW/Audi comes out first. Toyota/Lexus does have the most total number of complaints. It would be nice if they tied this in with # crashes and # deaths as well, and what the final disposition of the complaints are (what % were deemed legitimate.
     
  6. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I believe toyota/lexus has 4x the number of unintended accelleration deaths of all other maker combined in the US. I do not think this is interesting. I think it may be criminal.

    Of those other makers, I know of no non-japanese maker that has not read the erd when requested.
     
  7. nerfer

    nerfer A young senior member

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    That is completely not founded on anything I said or the article I quoted said. An act of God is one thing, but one drunk driver can kill as many people in one crash than all of Toyota's recall problems kill in a year. Both of those are tragic deaths and can't be tolerated, but let's get real about the risks and go after the most common risks first, and the rare risks we can deal with rationally and less haste.

    Drunk and inattentive driving is the real risk here. I am going to continue driving my Prius, and encourage others to do likewise, with a sharp eye out for dangerous drivers sharing the road with you.

    I agree with this entirely. We are still working on the first sentence however. Toyota has not found all the determining causes, it would appear, or you would be sure they would be applying the fix right now with the recalls.

    There is no such thing as a safe car by your understanding, and there never will be. If you think a complex system like today's cars can be proven 100% safe you do not understand complex systems. Even walking is a risk. I work on software for class III medical devices (life-sustaining or life-supporting). This is the highest level, and held to the highest level of scrutiny by the FDA. We spend a lot of time on risk analysis and risk reduction, and we would dearly love to make these devices risk-free, but it is not possible. Likelihood of risk is absolutely critical to making things work without being so cumbersome as to make them unusable and introduce new risks.
     
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  8. nerfer

    nerfer A young senior member

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    What about the over 1800 people that died from Hurricane Katrina. Why weren't any of the people in charge, the mayor, the governor, the leadership of FEMA charged with their deaths? It was well known in advance of the hurricane (I read about in Discover or National Geographic years beforehand) that a strong hurricane hitting New Orleans would be catastrophic, and yet it seemed all these people sat on their hands until the TV images of people on rooftops showed up, and then proceeded to make bad, uninformed decisions. That is truly a loss of life that is criminal.

    Five deaths a year (out of 40,000 highway deaths) is a problem that needs to be solved, as soon as possible, but I don't think it's criminal. Engineer's time may be better spent on side-curtain airbags, crumple zones and electronic stability control. By taking resources away from these kinds of activities, more lives may actually be lost than 5 a year currently due to the recall issues.
     
  9. mad-dog-one

    mad-dog-one Prius Enthusiast

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    An estimated 100,000 Americans die each year from medical errors. Although this number of deaths does not absolve Toyota, it helps me put things into perspective.
     
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  10. DeadPhish

    DeadPhish Senior Member

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    8000 - 12000 people die every year in GM vehicles all across the nation...now THAT's criminal.
     
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Many times graphing the data tells the tale:
    [​IMG]
    I only selected manufacturers that had at least 34 complaints for a model year to make sure the rate had some validity. The Volvo rates 2000-01 are not shown because they are well above the scale.

    Within the Toyota family, not all vehicles are created equal. I first selected models in the top five count of each year. I then went back and filled in the missing year data:
    [​IMG]
    The model year sales were found in Wiki or other open sources that track vehicle sales.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  12. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/overview.htm

    But but but ... who can GM backed legislators blame for lightning?

    ;)
     
  13. apriusfan

    apriusfan New Member

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    The weather? Or, if you are religious - God?

    BTW, the weather is much less controllable than the process of designing and manufacturing a car.
     
  14. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    You asked the question, I provided an answer with some commentary.

    If toyota did things either through negligence or actively hobbling investigations to have a much higher death percentage than industry average, then IMHO that activity is criminal. Let's take the san diago crash for instance. Four deaths after Toyota had numerous reports of A) Dealers installing double floor matts, B) known defects with Sticky Throttles. At the time toyota was actively fighting drivers attempted use of information in the ERDs, had a policy of not investigating users claims of unintended acceleration. It seems pretty cut and dried that toyota did not make enough effort to get their dealerships to stop unsafe practices. If they had the floor mats would not have been piled up. If the dealerships were advised to investigate instead of blaming drivers, then after the previous driver had complained about unintended acceleration the car might have been removed from the rental fleet and repaired. If toyota had not fought a failsafe of brakes overiding the throttle, the driver would have been able to stop the car. I count at least 3 failures that led to these 4 deaths. I am sure that most if not all of these deaths could have been prevented. The statistics can only say that things are extremely out of line with expectations. An investigation is needed to decided whether these were just calous business practices or criminal activity.


    You had anouther point about these being a small number of deaths compared to other causes, sure, a donout will likely kill more people than these cars, but that does not absolve the manufacturer of responsibility to build safe vehicles. I do agree with that point though.

    Someone else seemed to blame GM. I don't get that at all. I would however put some blame on the NTHSA which seemed to be talked out investigating, and this is a serious problem. Comparing things to katrina, ladders, pills really are devices of rhetoric when you can not answer the question.

    Risk of dying in a GenIII prius from unintended acceleration is very low. Giving toyota a pass on bad behavior, is likely to encourage more safety problems from toyota and other car makers in the future.
     
  15. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Right! . . . . and what say ye about those criminal asprin makers ... off with their heads too?

    woah ... a double double negative ... that left a pain behind my right eye . . . . anybody got one of those deadly asprin? I see the dough rolling in (for my survivors, of course)

    Thanks! . . . and you base that fact after researching/designing/manufacturing which model? Sadly, now days manufacturers must make ALL products perfect. Take a simple chair for instance (based on doing a bit of products liability, many years ago). If you don't build it strong enough for some 460 pound slob to use as a step ladder ... and it crashes down, causing injury ... pay up buddy.

    The irony is inexplicable. We despise the woman (and her attorney) who recovered MILLIONS from McDonalds when she burned her crotch (3rd degree) on spilled hot coffee ... yet now? Please help me reconcile multi million dollar remedies and loath for manufacturers (oh yes ... obviously it's easy to make a car ... just see how many manufacturers have sprung into business in the past couple decades, compared to generations ago) who build to current standards. I'm not talking about Ford Pinto / Firestone tire things where ultimately proof came about ... after all the hearings. I'm talking about being tried in the press ... and, "they'll get theirs ..." mentality. Yep. Inexplicable.

    .
     
  16. apriusfan

    apriusfan New Member

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    Try selling a product that is 'substandard' next to the same product that meets the standard (whatever it is).

    And your point is? Are you venting your frustration at Trial Lawyers? The alignment of the Sun, Earth and the Moon? Or?
     
  17. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    As stated in many threads ad nausium ~ Toyota's problems have harmed less (ratio wise) than lightning and aspirin. Yet the hammer flies.
     
  18. apriusfan

    apriusfan New Member

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    As some have posted numerous times before, the fact that there is only 2 in 2.0 million failures is not the point. The point is that if Toyota knew about the failures and did nothing to find and fix the root cause of the failures, they are liable for damages. How much damages and what other relief should apply is generally the subject of a lawsuit.
     
  19. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    When judged by total death rate per X million miles driven, is it really substandard at all?

    I would like all deaths to be minimized. But this controversy has not been over top Pareto chart items. Over the time frame that Toyota is being accused of ignoring these couple items, it seems that they have been whacking larger chunks of deaths off larger Pareto items.
     
  20. Chuck.

    Chuck. Former Honda Enzyte Driver

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    At least 100 Americans die on the roads daily from speeding, recklessness, liquor, drugs, cell phones - why no outcry? ....taking responsibility is for other people. :rolleyes: