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Thoughts on new Master Plan?

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by markabele, Jul 22, 2016.

  1. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    Dozens of established companies? First, maybe we should define "established." And then I would be appreciative if you could even list 4 or 5 such company names.

    As for your last question....see SpaceX. :)
     
  2. JSH

    JSH Senior Member

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    How about 83: http://www.ev-info.com/electric-bus-manufacturer

    Including household names such as Bluebird, Volvo, Mercedes, Hyundai, MAN, and Tata,

    Space tourism is an established market?
     
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  3. JSH

    JSH Senior Member

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    Double Post
     
  4. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    LOL
    The vast majority of those are tiny mom and pop companies. And the bigger names are just dipping their toe in the water, much like they are with other EV's.

    And LOL again if you think how SpaceX makes its money is space tourism.

    I think the bigger issue is you don't know enough about Elon Musk. You should read his biography by Ashlee Vance. Very interesting.
     
  5. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    that thought lead me to see if China - which puts out fake/horrible everything - was working of a fake tesla yet. Lo & behold;
    uploadfromtaptalk1471287079819.jpg

    Should be pretty hilarious watching the crash tests.
    .
     
  6. JSH

    JSH Senior Member

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    BYD just built a bus and battery factory in the USA and have picked up some major contracts lately. They aren’t exactly mom and pop as they employ 15,000 and are backed by a different billionaire – Warren Buffett.

    As to dipping their toes in the water, it is the municipal governments that are doing that. Lots of cities are doing trials to see if the reduced operating expenses make up for the larger initial investment in an electric bus. Here in Portland we will be getting our first electric buses in 2018. That will be 4 out of a fleet of 650. We replace about 50 buses per year so it will be quite some time before electric buses would be commonplace in this area.

    Sorry, I mixed them up with that other space company founded by a billionaire, Virgin Galactic.

    No, I just don’t subscribe to the hero worship that surrounds Musk. Tesla is a case in point. Every vehicle has been delivered behind schedule and their reliability is poor. They need to step up their game.

    I still think diverting resources into commercial vehicles is a boneheaded idea. Time will tell if I’m right or not.
     
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i don't recall poor reliability from owners or other credible sources. i thought it was just the opposite?
     
  8. vinnie97

    vinnie97 Whatever Works

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    Consumer Reports adjusted their review based on teething reliability reports after their initial high ratings. They are arguably minor issues.
     
  9. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    Point taken about BYD. Although I think they've been struggling as a company.

    FWIW, the minibus will be based on the Model X chassis, so I doubt they will need to put many R&D dollars towards it.

    Lastly, (what I hope will be my last waste of breath on this argument) if you so strongly believe that Tesla will fail long term then wouldn't it be wise for you to short the stock? That would be putting your money where your mouth is. I've done just that. I personally own Tesla stock and am extremely bullish on the company's future.
     
  10. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    The last Chinese ev company that finally took the time to pass all safety /crash tests here in the USA was a miserable fail;
    Electric car maker CODA files for bankruptcy
    Admittedly, looking like an escapee from the mid 1980's didn't help .....
    [​IMG]
    If the next (chinese) kid in town - even if they do 200% better, may very well mean they fail in 36 months in stead of 18.
    .
     
    #90 hill, Aug 15, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2016
  11. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Some seem to forget that Tesla did not invent the Electric car. Electric cars have been around for 100 years, and the one that really brought it up to speed was GM with the EV1. This car came out at the wrong time, and Government had other plans with electric cars, otherwise Tesla would be playing catch up to GM.
     
  12. JSH

    JSH Senior Member

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    When I think of a bus I think of this:
    [​IMG]

    That is the BYD K9 which sold 6,000 units last year. If Tesla is looking to make a minibus / van based on the Model X I think that would be an excellent extension of the platform. The Master Plan 2 is vague on the detail but it seems to be focused on the public transport / commercial sector not personal transport served by the minivan today. I think a passenger van / delivery van based on the Model X makes more sense than a pickup truck but a truck similar to the Honda Ridgeline is easy to do.

    The talk of a Tesla semi is WAY out there in left field. Semis are about the worst possible application for an electric vehicle. A much better application in the commercial sector is trash trucks, and urban delivery trucks. Mercedes-Benz: First fully electric truck | Daimler > Products > Trucks > Mercedes-Benz

    [​IMG]

    That technology is ready to go, as you can see for the example above all it takes is raiding the corporate parts bin. However, at this time the economics don't make sense. Electric buses are starting to take off driven by government mandates in cities to reduce pollution. Public money is picking up the extra cost. There isn't a similar level of subsidy for private fleet operators so they will stick to their diesel trucks until electrics cost less to purchase and operate. With the continuing drop in battery prices we may reach that level soon but commercial operators are a VERY conservative bunch.

    I don't believe I said I think Tesla will fail. I believe I said they will start to face competition and will need to up their game. I also own Tesla stock and want to see a return on my money. That means staying focused on a market segment and excelling in that segment.

    For the near future Tesla should be focused on getting the Model 3 out on time with class leading quality. For future products: A CUV based on the Model 3 is a given. By the time that comes out it will be time to redesign the Model S. That redesign should be modular allowing a sedan, CUV, van, and truck to all be built on the platform. By then the Model 3 will need to be redesigned. There is plenty to do without dabbling in commercial vehicles.

    I also think the purchase of Solar City is a risky bet. It is a bet that solar subsidies continue as that is what is driving the residential solar market. I see no reason to roll Solarcity into Tesla
     
  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    yeah, we're all vdub bus fans. it's a whole different ballgame. hippie mobile and all that. flower power.:p
     
  14. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    The "money where your mouth is" comment was meant for our friend orenji.
     
  15. JimN

    JimN Let the games begin!

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    Just because we like the product doesn't mean we like the company's stock. How many Prius owners also bought Toyota's ADR (TM)? Selling puts and/or calls on TSLA will provide a rate of return.

    I'm not happy about the Musk Clan Bailout Plan but I don't have enough influence to stop it.
     
  16. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    Please explain what you mean by the Musk Clan Bailout Plan. I think the term bailout gets used so frequently around this site some people don't understand the meaning.
    Also, if he thinks the company goes to zero, then why on earth would you not short it?
     
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    of course, shorting is not always a belief that the company is faltering. sometimes it's just a strategy to get other stockholders to panic sell. however you reach your goal is unimportant, as long as you reach it. might as well place your bets on red.
     
  18. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Wesley Snipes always bets on black . . . when he gets out of jail for tax evasion

    .
     
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  19. JimN

    JimN Let the games begin!

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    Why should Tesla issue 0.11 share of stock to buy Solar City? Solar City's business plan is to install solar panels on the roof then charge the homeowner for the electricity and keep the credits. For those who believe it's a good deal Solar City offers to pay 4+% interest for non-transferable solar bonds.

    SpaceX has loaned Solar City some $255 million. In the movie "The Right Stuff" we are reminded that it is "funding" that makes the rockets go up. No bucks, no Buck Rogers.

    Solar City is bleeding cash. If they default on the bonds Musk's SpaceX gets screwed. If Solar City files for bankruptcy Musk & his relatives lose a ton of money as do those with ties to Tesla and Solar City.

    If it makes sense for a car company to buy a company that sells and installs solar panels then why buy now? Why buy this company? Bide your time and screw them down just before the bankruptcy filing or buy them for pennies on the dollar through the court.

    It's easier to convert the Musk Clan's Solar City stock into Tesla stock so that Tesla and its shareholders can pay down the outstanding Solar City debt. As long as the capital markets have an appetite for new Tesla stock the scheme works.
     
  20. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    I get what you are saying and agree with parts of it. But keep in mind that Tesla isn't just a car company anymore. They will soon own the biggest building on Earth, and a lot of that will be dedicated to making batteries. They are becoming a clean energy company.