Featured Toyota chief speaks out on EVs

He has a valid point.

 

Akio Toyoda: thinks EV's are too expensive.
Maby he doesn't know how to use Ebay - where you can get a deal like a 1 year old used Model 3 which sold in the low $30K's

2019 Tesla TESLA MODEL 3 | eBay

Sounds more like he doesn't know what he's talking about. But, if you need to defend not having anything to offer in the EV line up ... any alibi is better than none?

Let's see what a nice similarly aged/used camry sold for . . . .

2019 Toyota Camry XSE V6 | eBay
how bout that ... pretty much the same price range.
Maybe Akio-san needs a better excuse.
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He is addressing to Japanese audience at a year-end news conference in his capacity as chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association. Sorry, no eBay in Japan. Besides, the average household in Japan has no easy way to charge BEV even if the car is affordable which is not.

 

Discussed in this thread. The situation in Japan would be multiple times worse than Cal if Japan's gov to mandate sifting to BEV and ban gas engine cars including HV.

 

What, no, that isn't what the executive order said.

The EO gives CARB the ability to transition 100% of new car sales in California to zero emission cars. While it may not have helped much, CARB's policies have been more generous to hydrogen cars. So it isn't moving all cars to BEVs.

Under the ZEV program, new car sales are already at 22% ZEV by its accounting, and that is where it capped under the regulations it started it. This EO will likely just mean CARB will continue the ZEV program beyond 22%. Following the past increase rate, it would hit 50% by 2035.

Here is an important bit from the EO, "In implementing this Paragraph, the State Air Resources Board shall act consistently with technological feasibility and cost-effectiveness."Governor Newsom Announces California Will Phase Out Gasoline-Powered Cars & Drastically Reduce Demand for Fossil Fuel in California’s Fight Against Climate Change | California Governor. It isn't an edict of do this, and damn the consequences. And if new car sales are banned by 2035, you can just buy one out of state.

Toyoda is concerned here is because a recent statement from the Japanese government for ZEVs shows a weakening support for hydrogen FCEVs. Toyota is invested in FCEVs, and not mass production of BEVs.

If it isn't already out, I think we'll see something from Nissan's chief saying the opposite.

 

what did the tesla owner pay new, net net after all tax credits and rebates?

 

Japan too, has a edict to dump gas burners, giving their selves few more years than California gave itself. Europe is looking to do something similar.

sorry, I didn't mean to confuse anyone who might not understand the representative term "eBay" (doesn't matter eBay shut down their Japanese auction site) to describe cost comparison of 1 year old cars. Didn't mean to confuse anyone either, into thinking you can only buy on auction sites or other markets from the country that you have residence.

The notion that apartment dwellers have no way to charge is a misnomer - but often stated as a reason in lieu of simply truthfully admitting fear of new tech. A few years ago, Japan had the highest number of public DC QC throughout the nation. Eventually Norway past them. Additionally there are hundreds of thousands of plug-in vehicles in Japan, and that number is still growing.
Plug-in electric vehicles in Japan - Wikipedia

That's why the example given above, that a one-year-old used Camry can cost similar to a one-year-old used model 3. The Japan Market for ANY car - pricey or cheap, is smaller than countries like the United States which have a much more inferior public transit system.
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Actually, the Mayor of Seattle has recently proposed to outlaw the use of natural gas for heating in new commercial and large apartment buildings. And for most things automotive, our state follows the California CARB regulations.

 

I was merely pointing out that the executive order would work out as allowing the ZEV program to be extended beyond the 22% ratio it is capped at. A figure that is actually for ZEV credits, so results in far less ZEV cars needed for the manufacturer's quota. Not an imperial edict that bans ICE cars in 2035.

 

You lost me on the FCEV’s. California is adding an additional 45 fuel stations in 2021 and the cost of each new station has dropped to $700k. So as the infrastructure grows, the cost of each station will become less to build. We have three giant corporations building out the infrastructure, Shell Oil, Linde, and True Zero. Toyota is hopes to make a bigger push into the California market with the newly redesigned Mirai which is also priced $10k less and now offers 400 miles of range per tank.

 

I could not find and confirm the data the Wikipedia article cites for the total number of the fleet of light-duty plug-in electric vehicles in Japan, which is said to be 303,000 in circulation at the end of 2019. Even if this number is accurate, do you realize the number represents less than 0.4% of the total 4 wheel cars and trucks in circulation in Japan which was 78,416,591 at the end of 2019? The main reason is the price. Do you really think PHEV (and BEV) are truly affordable in Japan? In Japan, HEV costs US$2-3K more than compatible ICE cars, and PHEV costs ~US$5K more than compatible HEV. Why do you think of ~78mil cars and trucks in Japan over 31mil of them are Kei cars? That's simply because they cost less to buy and cost less to maintain. Except for a few BEVs like MiEV by Mitsubishi and Hypermini by Nissan, l am not aware of any Japanese car manufactures producing street-legal PHEV in the Kei car segment.

 

Where are you getting $700k? Argonne National Lab is saying $1.5 to $2 million, and California Fuel Cell Partnership says $2 million for a 200kg station.
file:///C:/Users/Matt/AppData/Local/Temp/4.%20elgowainyanl.pdf
COSTS AND FINANCING | H2 Station Maps

Those companies might be building stations, but taxpayers are paying a large part of the bill.

The price of the Mirai went up in Japan; 6.7 to 7.1 million yen starting and 7.9 million for the top trim. The Limited in the US is $67k. The XLE starts around the same price as a Lexus GS.

 

Year or two back I went to a lecture by the CEO of the biggest electric provider in Michigan (Consumers). OK, we are not California but I expect similar commentary there. Her analysis suggested that a very large proportion of the auto fleet could go electric today and the system would actually benefit. This is based on a large proportion of the charging occurring at night (which can easily be incentivized) and would help balance loads between night and day. As I recall it she also suggested that in the future (not distant) she expected electric cars to be capable of providing power TO the grid when needed for a short power surge (all managed voluntarily and via onboard software and, of course, incentivized). None of these innovations required significant changes to the grid or power sources which, she also suggested would not be static in the meantime, making things even more appealing as upgrades are implemented.

 

Don't forget, during times of peak demand, the provider will use their secondary power sources. Those are always dirtier than the primary. Firing up a diesel generator to supply electricity for charging vehicles is a very real problem... one easily overlooked.

 

My understanding is that California's issue is management of the grid and their policies, not the grid itself.
Shutdowns for high winds in wildfire ares wouldn't be needed if power line right of ways were kept clear, or if the cables were underground in the high risk spots.
California wants to clean their grid, admirable, but they may have set a course that couldn't be met in the time frame, and they discounted natural gas for the interm. They chose purity over meeting surges in demand.

 

The Mirai is $9,000 less than the out going model.
Toyota Introduces Second-Generation Mirai Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle as Design and Technology Flagship Sedan - Toyota USA Newsroom