Featured Toyota forecasts shortfall of 500k cars, up from 150k for '22

prices will remain high i guess, unless the coming interest rate increases slow demand

 

Remember the cut is for the fiscal year ending next month. I expect the april 2022 - march 2023 to have increased production, and would call that the 2022 calendar year forecast.


Hope those idiot canadian truckers get arrested or stop blocking the border.

 

why are you expecting increased production, is the chip shortage improving?

 

The forecast is that US light vehicles in 2022 will increase about 500,000 vehicles more than 2021 to 15.4M versus 14.9M, still depressed from 2019s 17M vehicles because of things like the chip shortage. 2020 production fell to 14.5M because of the pandemic, and automakers cut their orders for chips, it probably will take until the end of the year for some car makers to recover as semi conductor companies sold chips to other industries.

Ford, GM, and Toyota - the car makers most affected by the canadian truck blockade will be able to use the chips and other scarce parts they ordered in production later in the year. The blockade shouldn't change 2022 production, although toyota may use some of the chips for other markets but other companies are ready to sell more in the US if they do.

 

The Canadian factor is coincidental? More succinct adjectives would be anti-vax, right-leaning, conspiracy-paranoid, populist?

they’re maybe just one more straw too: dealership local to me has had zero new cars for some time now.

a good time to hunker.

 

Another shortfall to boost used car prices!!!

Bloomberg Subscription Article: Stuck with a Cash Guzzler. pdf
Soaring prices for used cars leave many Americans no choice but to pay for repairs.

The 10 Used Cars Surging the Most in Price
The 10 Used Cars Surging the Most in Price: Here’s the List - WSJ

Dodge Grand Caravan, Nissan Versa and Toyota Prius have seen biggest increases in average prices paid for three-year-old models

Surging used-car prices and an inventory crunch across auto dealerships mean there could be cash to be had in that old clunker. Prices for used cars have risen by 40.5% over the past year, according to the latest Labor Department data. That jump helped accelerate U.S. inflation to an annual rate of 7.5% last month, a new four-decade high.

Cars are traditionally depreciating assets. But a slowdown in new car production among auto manufacturers has created high demand for used vehicles—and led to sticker shock for buyers expecting to find deals on second-hand models. The average transaction price for a three-year-old used Dodge Grand Caravan, for example, surged by 69%, according to data from automotive research company Edmunds, rising from just over $15,000 in January 2021 to nearly $26,000 last month.

The firm provided a list of three-year-old used cars that have seen the biggest percentage increases in average transaction prices over the past year. It says average prices paid for three-year-old Nissan Versas and Toyota Priuses are up more than 60% from a year ago.

Ivan Drury, senior insights manager for Edmunds, said bargain hunters are seeking the most affordable options, rather than looking for the newest or flashiest car. That’s giving car owners looking to unload older models some surprising selling power in this upside-down market, he said.

 

we've been hunkering for 2 years. don't count on us to stimulate the economy, but our savings is growing exponentially

 

That's why the Federal Reserve is loathe to raise interest rates. If they go up by much we'll be in a major debt crisis. Today we're paying approximately 1.7% interest on the debt, and the Federal government is taking out about $2 trillion more in loans every year. Debt service at 1.7% is $85 billion a year. If the Fed raised interest rates 100 basis points it would cost $97 billion a year in interest to service that debt. If things got like the early 1980s the debt service would pile on $250 billion to the Federal budget every year. You could see where that would go badly.

 

Who could have every figured after two years of ineffective leadership and government control over bodily autonomy that there'd be any consequences?

 

Trump and the Republicans had four years to screw it up. Then there was the COVID unemployment.

Bob Wilson

 

and that's why we don't have any cars. which i consider a good thing for the environment, but hey, this is a car forum

 

I don't think I can see it with as much enthusiasm.

I think what I read said people are going broke/into debt to keep older, higher-pollution cars going because that's both more available and cheaper than newly-produced cars.

I feel fortunate that we managed to get the cars we have now, but if one were totaled tomorrow there's simply no question: it would be replaced by something 5-8 years older.

 

sounds like hype. most older cars will be cheaper to keep running than the cost of a new car.

all cars are way more expensive though. as far as pollution, you have to go well to wheels to figure it all out, too complicated, including final resting place of end of life.

 

The cars being expensive means holding onto ones that probably should be going to the scrap yard. Even if not that bad, parts have surely gone up in price too.

 

^ And labor is up.

...and where it hasn't gone up recently, it's likely not worth using.

 

it's a tough call, and every situation is different.

 

There was also a massive bank failure in 2020 that neither T nor congress was competent to “do their part” so the fed put 10 years of bailout money to yet again prop up banks 12 years after the first.

Whole documentaries on the 2020 shadow bank failure and it’s likely long spanning inflationary consequences

 

My 2wd truck needs the entire front end but the replacement parts are less reliable than my worn rusted out parts