Toyota, Hybrid Innovator, Holds Back in Race to Go Electric

The only highway-legal electric car one buy in the US is the Tesla Roadster, and the $49k model S is still a year or so away.

So, in less than 2 years Toyota is supposed to get all hot to produce an all-electric that might compete with a Corolla on performance and price? How long would that battery last? what warranty? How much to replace out of warranty?

And how to drive that all-electric car from SF to LA? Where to plug-in? How much down time in XYZ City off Hwy 5?

Is it true 90% of people could use an all-electric car for their daily driving needs? Can 90% of drivers plug-in overnight today? Can 90% of driver's afford a 2nd car that's electric?

A large % of people would not be able to plug-in overnight - no infrastructure on streets, car ports for that.

Some can make use of all-electrics.

Most drivers are hooked on gas. It works for them.

 

Wouldn't it be sad if Toyota's (somewhat) cautious/negative stand on EV's ultimately caused Toyota to ,become the new GM ... as when GM stood by and told the world how hybrids are NOT what people really want ...

I hope not.
Sadly Toyota's new head, Akio Toyoda seems to be hung up on fuel cel technology ... which has been nothing but a huge black hole for R&D money wasting for what ... some 3 decades? It ought to be enough for Akio-san to realize GM's Lutz & Wagoner loved fuel cels ... all the way to bankruptcy court.
.

 

Yeah, Toyota should focus to build 10k EV's in 2012, and disregard their 1,000,000 million hybrids in 2010?

How can that make any sense? In any case, hybrid technology is going to stay forever. Parts of hybrid tech is going to be used in EV's and would not be so efficient if there was no hybrids. Hybrid popularity will bring down component prices and raise availability of components for electric vehicles.

I am all for "Prius" EV, with 100 mile range and 10 minute recharge, at base price of $28k. Thats minimum that general population will accept for vehicle that has a chance to sell more than ten thousand per year.

Look at Prius - after 6 years, Toyota managed to save 30% in production cost of hybrid system and start making similar money as on Corolla. 6 years for 30% and thats considered really good.

Yet people somehow belive that magical wand is going to make $40k Volt in 2012, $35k Volt in 2013, $30k Volt in 2014 and by the 2015 Volts will be free and we will all live happily ever after .

Hey, I will be first to buy Volt and if that happens... but it is silly to expect when both GM and Nissan openly say that their production plans, when they fully start production, are around 10k vehicles per year.

10k? Both those companies together will produce around 10 million cars in 2012, out of which 20k will be Leafs and Volts... Toyota will produce 7 million cars out of which 1.5 million might be hybrids. So who is talking the talk and who is walking the walk?

Why is there this build up of negativity between EV's, PHEV's and Hybrids? They all share many common components and all advancements in technology will help all of them.

20k EV's in 2012.... 1.5-2 million hybrids in 2012... 40-50 million cars in 2012? And people want Toyota to issue an PR how they will produce the bestest 421 MPG vehicle that they will sell in thousands in 2012.

PR is in full swing i guess...

 

I'm not sure that Toyota is playing this wrong. They are investing lots in NiMH manufacture and Li ion research. Their electric motor and control technology is very advanced compared to competition. When they are happy with the batteries they could roll out an EV pretty fast.

We'll see how it goes.

BTW a Toyota guy in the NY Times article said that Prius became profitable in 2001. We debate that from time to time here...

 

I don't think Toyota is holding back on electric drive cars - they have the very best hybrid-electric drivetrain technology on the planet.

People are getting used to cars that can propel themselves, under low speed conditions or easy glide, on electricity alone.

And I'll bet a great many if not most really like when their Prius or HyCam, HH goes in all-electric mode.

As battery technology improves, better batteries can be put into hybrid-electrics. Then, there will be more time in stealth, all-battery mode.

Most people don't want to give up much performance or creature comforts in their car and they want it affordable.

The 3rd Gen Prius balances price, performance, economy, and usefulness very well. I see them daily. Once in a while I see a 2010 Insight.

 

I remember when I first saw a 2010 Insight cycledrum. I was like woah, there's actually one on the road now!

I believe the Toyota could produce an EV in a matter of... well a very short time if they wanted to. I mean hell, people are making electric vehicles out of the most unlikely cars in a garage or the like. Granted the guy with the electric Eclipse only has about a 50 mile range or something but he did that with what he could salavage.

Toyota could build a purpose built chassis and source some Li-Ion batteries without breaking a sweat, and it wouldn't even need to engineer electric motors because there are probably several companies already making them. I really just feel like they are waiting it out until they're sure the time is right.

 

Since Toyota is a big winner (maybe the only one) in the hybrid (i.e., gas-electric) race, it is understandable that they want to exploit that market as long as possible. Transitioning to all-electric cars is a big unknown at the present time; it may take 5-10 years for the technology to stabilize (motor design, battery chemistry, ultra-capacitors, etc.). Different companies are developing different approaches and they are not all going to make money. At this time, is anyone other than Tesla turning a profit on EVs? - and they are a very small-volume outfit by Toyota standards. Presumably, big T is following closely in the research labs and can put something in the market quickly when they want/have to.

Personally, I think they should announce something electric (i.e., beyond the city car and the plug-in Prius) in the next 6 months, and I think they will. BUT, I could be wrong... heh, heh, heh.......

 

It's important to keep the current state of the automarket in perspective. Right now, in 2009, how many people are buying hybrids versus how many people are buying conventional gasoline cars? Since "ten times" as many conventional vehicles are being sold as hybrids, it is obvious that the majority of the general public is resisting any change from conventional cars. The reasons are likely different for different people, but the commonality is that there are still many, many more conventional cars being sold today compared to hybrids. (Yes, things are looking much better; consumers buy more and more hybrids every month that passes - hybrid sales are on the uptrend compared to 2008 and 2007 and 2006...)

As a result of this slow change, I don't think Toyota nor anyone needs to "freak out" that they might lose massive market share. Massive market share still resides with conventional cars. Toyota knows this and Toyota knows that tomorrow's conventional car will be the hybrid, and this is why Toyota is focusing that vast majority of their R&D efforts on hybrids - because the 90% of the market that is conventional cars today will be 90% hybrids tomorrow. In the way that hybrids are still a niche market today, EVs will likely continue to be a niche market well into 2019 (as much as I wish things would change TODAY, the reality is that things aren't moving as fast as we would like).

(I agree with the post that I quoted)

 

This is what I love about PriusChat. Good, well-thought, discussion on both sides. When I saw this post I braced myself for some angry comments, but alas, my fears were unfounded. (That said, I need someone to hit me between the eyes - can't have a good discussion without some angst!)

You guys all get it. We're working diligently on ensuring we're best to market with PHEV, EV, FCHV, and other technologies too. We're not resting on our laurels or exploited hybrids at the expense of other technologies, and we're certainly not in cahoots with oil companies. It always feel a little sad when I read that people think we are. I guess we have more explaining to do.

Sometimes I think the biggest problem is people - and especially those fascinated in technology - see the enormous strides in personal electronics almost everyday, and wonder why it doesn't translate to vehicles at the same pace. More memory, more speed, more interconnectedness, and often at slashed prices! No wonder customers look at new cars and impatiently say, "now why isn't that a 500 mpg plug-in hybrid with all the latest gadgets at $15k"??? That's reality, and something I think the auto industry doesn't do a good enough job managing.

Doug Coleman
Prius Product Manager
Toyota Motor Sales, USA

(Edit: By the way did you see this HybridCars.com article?)

 

From the NYT article

Yes it is true. Sorry but he's wrong .. at this time. The NA buying public is not ready to leap from the 1920's to the 2020's yet. Nearly the entire population are such laggards in accepting technological innovation such that even the well-proven Prius and Ford technologies are not even close to mainstream. This is a direct dispatch from the front lines.

From a business perspective Toyota has a huge lead in hybrid technology that it must use to make money. The others have to scramble to do something else to gain attention. All the while Toyota will be making money off its innovation from the 90's.

Development has to remain strong because the future is going to be personal transport driven by electrons but for the near and intermediate term money has to be made on the original innovations. Toyota, Ford and Honda can do this. The others cannot.

 

"Toyota’s environmental communication manager, added, 'Our outlook has never been to be the first to market. We want to be the best to market.'"

This might not be the case in all industries, but in the auto industry, best but not first is definitely the winning strategy. (fyi: this is also the strategy of Apple computer)
(looks like the 2010 Honda Insight lost in both areas. lol.)

What I love about Toyota is that even though they are ahead of everyone else, they don't just sit there on the sofa and wait for the others to catch up. Like leaders, they continue to push forward. I'm amazed every time they update a model to see how much new technology they have added each time. For example, the new Corolla comes standard with side and side-curtain airbags, standard ABS and standard traction control, and Toyota is so brilliant that they gave the driver the option to turn the traction control on and off, and they gave the driver the ability to turn the dash lights all the way off also. They also gave the driver "tip-tronic-like" control over the transmission! (and unlike the competition, you can specifically select the gear number instead of just having a plus and minus sign. Brilliant!). You usually don't see all of this standard on a $15K car! You usually have to spend $50K to find that standard. (note: my 2004 Corolla, as brilliant as it is didn't have the things that I mentioned above - all of that is new. Toyota continues to push forward and Toyota is awesome! )

You guys shouldn't worry too much about the PHEV. It will likely be here sooner than you think.
And, at the rate that Toyota is innovating, I'll bet you they were working on the GenIV Prius the next day after the GenIII Prius was set into production. Just like computer chip designers, I'll bet you the Prius MPG is very evolutionary and they continue to improve upon it constantly. The Prius engineers are probably on the test track right now.