Toyota Owners Jump Ship to Tesla

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by hill, May 18, 2018.

  1. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    Just discovered this poll: "what was your previous car before you ordered a Tesla model 3". Although the sample size is still very small, a trend is starting to develop. At this time of posting (results will change as voting continues), the poll shows the following:
    Toyota - 19%
    Honda - 12%
    Nissan - 9%
    VW - 6%
    Chevrolet - 6%
    BMW - 6%

    POLL

    So far these results confirm the original premise of the OP on this thread, Toyota owners are jumping ship to the model 3 in significantly larger numbers than other makers. This sort of debunks the theory that the model 3 is a rich man's car since sales are being cannibalized from lower priced brands. This result will show up in even greater numbers on Toyota's declining sales over the next few years. In order to stem the tide, Toyota needs to introduce and produce a compelling vehicle that addresses the demand for a BEV - not some ICE, not some hybrid, not some plug-in hybrid, and not some fuel cell vehicle.

    Come on Toyota, stop producing your same old tired designs (reliable although they may be, a horse and buggy are reliable too) and start to innovate which you did at one time in your past. Like dinosaurs, which were big and ubiquitous and ruled the land at one time, adapt and evolve or you face an inevitable extinction.
     
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    my hypothesis is that toyota is the leader in low emissions high mpg vehicles.

    so more of their owners are like to be looking to cross that 'bridge' when the time comes.

    i know that's the case for me, but i still think tesla is a monetary stretch for most people, and the small numbers of people switching are meaningless as far as 'financial ability' is concerned.
     
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  3. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    And some Toyotas aren't cheap. Highlander hybrids were once around the price of the currently available Model 3.
    Then just because someone is trading up from an entry level brand to a luxury one doesn't mean they couldn't afford a luxury car before.
    It could also be phrased as the manufacturer with a higher satisfaction rating is better able to meet or exceed their customers' expectations.

    Perhaps Chrysler's high rating on the CR poll is because their customers' low expectations mean they are happy not bringing the car in as often as they thought they would. That implies Toyota's lower rating means their customers aren't finding their cars living up to the hype. Or perhaps the customer settled for ho hum performance and sub par seats in order to get the reliability.

    Regardless of the skewing, customer satisfaction ratings are a measure of how happy they are with the company or model. Happy customers are good for the business no matter why they are happy.
     
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  4. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    @el Crucero this is not a poll, it's a small sample survey. Does it not seem logical that 19% of Toyota owners (more then likley Prius owners) would try out a Tesla as they are more acceptable to the idea of EV. So of course the best selling hybrid of all time will be Toyota owners. This is not an indication that Toyota owners are jumping ship. Loyal Toyota owners will wait for a Toyota product if they really want an EV from Toyota. I am not sure I want an EV, I like the idea of a hybrid and not having to plan my day around a charging center. (Condo Living makes a home charger more complicated). This week I parked next to the Fountain Valley Tesla charging center that was 90% full with cars. And watching people sit in their cars for a 1/2 hour or more for a charge does not excite me!
     
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  5. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    On a further note, if Tesla owners are so happy with their cars, why do they care what Toyota is thinking and what cars they produce in the future.
     
  6. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Ironic - for many years, Toyota builds this leading edge - high tech - high efficiency lead in sales. So naturally, that crowd are the most likely to be on the prowl for whatever might be able to beat what they have.
    Certainty true - Toyota owners are not jumping ship in mass. That would require Toyota (et al) to get conquests via truck & SUV purchasers. God help the truck building manufacturers if they
    DON'T have an offering when
    Tesla offers up an EV version & starts taking $1,000 reservations. The traditionals COULD lead by doing this. But what are the odds that they will.
    OR - is the BETTER question;
    if TOYOTA & other manufacturers are happy with their cars, do they care what Tesla is producing in the future

    .
     
    #446 hill, Jun 14, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2018
  7. tpenny67

    tpenny67 Active Member

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    I would argue that Toyota did stop producing the same old tired design and came out with the Mirai, thus putting a substantial number of eggs in the fuel cell basket. Fisker also had a nice idea and promptly face planted trying to produce it. Innovation is great but most innovations fail.

    And if Tesla does stay in business for another 10 years, you can bet that Toyota and every other major automaker will be in fast follower mode and trying to make BEVs of higher quality for less money than Tesla. In the end, the spoils usually go to the low cost producer (excepting boutique brands like Ferrari)
     
  8. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    Yes, I conceded that it is a small sample size, but it is indicative (in this polling group) that Toyota is most susceptible to cannibalization from model 3 sales.
    I suspect most of the cannibalization comes from current and previous hybrid, plug-in, BEV owners like Prius, Leaf, Bolt/Volt, I3, etc. Once people own an alternative fuel vehicle they never want to go back and are looking for improvements in terms of range, performance, and comfort and the model 3 is currently the best alternative.
    You didn't read the poll question, these are people who have already jumped ship. Even more will jump ship as soon as the model 3 becomes more widely available
    I concede that owning a BEV (of whatever brand) is more difficult for condo/apartment dwellers. However, California has passed legislation that mandates HOA and apartment owners allow installation of BEV charging infrastructure if paid by the BEV owner. I put in infrastructure in my garage for $250 - less than the cost of new seat covers. ;)
    You are citing the exception, not the rule. Watching people wait 30 minutes at Costco for gasoline doesn't excite me either. Today, I charge my car at home at night while I sleep and wake up to a full tank of "fuel" every morning!
    @orenji you just don't get it. This is not about Tesla, it is about improving the environment in which we live. This is about our children and grandchildren and the air they breathe. The polar caps are melting faster than even the most pessimistic scientists predicted. The threat of annihilation of the human species is real and it is now.

    I want all car makers to make viable alternative fuel vehicles. Toyota has the technology, experience, financing, and track record to do that better than anyone. But do they have the corporate will? Nothing would make me happier than for Toyota to produce a BEV that would put a huge dent in Tesla sales. You said they are going to do that in 2019, but you have yet to show me a picture of it or the specifications, or the price. I am still waiting for you and Toyota to do that.
     
    #448 el Crucero, Jun 14, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2018
  9. VFerdman

    VFerdman Senior Member

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    While I agree that Toyota needs to get on the EV train to stay competitive, I really disagree with your conclusions of this poll. First of all, Toyota sells cars in the range of $15K - $50K+, so it's not JUST a cheap car maker, it makes cars in the price range of Model 3 and higher. Model 3 is most definitely an upper income person's car if not a rich man's. I doubt very much that Toyota owners of Yaris are getting in line to buy a Model 3. So there is no debunking at all here. Also, there is a high possibility that some of those 19% respondents to the poll are buying model 3 as a second car and the Toyota stays in the family. The poll does not specify if they abandoned Toyota to go to Tesla. They may still very well own the Toyota. That's not jumping ship.

    Comparing any stats of Toyota and Tesla is pointless because Toyota has been around much longer, has a much more diverse range of products and customers than Tesla. It's simply apples and oranges and any comparison in things like owner satisfaction, reliability, etc. is not very telling at all at this point. Tesla is not a mature auto maker with a diverse range of products and owner demographics.

    While I like Tesla and wish well, I think BEV cars have a long and difficult road ahead of them in making any appreciable dent in the ICE/hybrid market. The biggest hurdle being charging, of course. The current energy replenishment system is simply not inclusive of the majority of present car owners' needs. That's a fact. As technology moves forward, this will change. But as of this moment comparing a BEV to any vehicle who's energy source can be replenished quickly, cheaply and easily is just not a seriously fair endeavor. It's still very much apples and oranges. So I don't think Toyota has much to worry about yet.
     
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  10. el Crucero

    el Crucero Senior Member

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    Toyota made some egregious amateur mistakes with the Mirai, - no infrastructure for easy refueling, - no alternative for home refueling, - no mass market appeal, - and, in my opinion, one of the ugliest cars ever designed. No, Toyota is making the same tired designs as long as people continue to buy them.
    What makes you think that Tesla won't be in business in 10 years? I think there is a greater likelihood of Tesla being in business in 10 years than Toyota being in business in 10 year (at the current rate they are innovating)!

    YES!!!!! I want Toyota to make a BEV of higher quality for less money than a Tesla. They better get busy because they are being left in the dust!
     
  11. VFerdman

    VFerdman Senior Member

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    As much as I agree with you in principal and admire your position on this, I really, really do not think that Toyota making a BEV will save the human race from self-annihilation. We have much bigger problems than that. BEVs currently are probably using as much or more oil as the ICE/hybrid cars. Most electricity in US comes from fossil sources. BEVs may be a little more efficient in use of those fossil fuels (via the electric plug), but they do not eliminate the use of fossil fuels. What they do is provide a way to be able to not use fossil fuels, but that's not the same thing. Again, please do not interpret my comment as anti-environmental, it is not. I think development of EVs is essential and moreover, it's inevitable as it is simply a better technology than ICE. I think what we disagree upon is pace. I understand that you want it done yesterday and it's possible that even yesterday is too late. But reality presents a different path. Most people using cars today simply are not able to use BEVs as they are today. It simply will not work for them. And I am talking VAST majority of car users. Also vast majority of electricity in this country today comes from fossil fuel. Those are facts that are difficult to brush aside, even when blinded by things like Tesla and their brilliancy (not being sarcastic here, I think Tesla is a brilliant car maker). Things will change and are changing, but the pace of this change is going to annoy many of us and possibly be not fast enough to make a difference (I hope not).
     
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  12. eman08

    eman08 Active Member

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    Only a very small number of complaints out of 2.5 million vechiles? Yeah sounds like people aren't changing their oil very often. That's a owner maintenace issue going too long in between oil changes and people suing companies for thier own problems that they caused. GM, Honda, Audi, Chrsyler were also sued for the very exact same thing and opened up engine sludge repair programs. If this was a major defect it would be effecting millions a vechicles woudn't you think? Theres a reason why no TSB recall was issued for those issues. All of those engines are from the 90s as they require conventional oil. You can't use Synthetic oil on those engines like modern ones.
     
    #452 eman08, Jun 14, 2018
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  13. eman08

    eman08 Active Member

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    Hmm very unlikely Toyota would disapear with over 10 million of its vehicles on the road. How many Teslas sold all togther world wide? only 200 some thousand. Toyota is a massive gaint worth four Tesla companies put together. The demand for EVs in the U.S market is not very strong compared to Europe and China. ICE aren't going any where any time soon for the U.S market for a very long time. We are talking decades. Its just going to take too damn long to replace every single ICE on the road with EVs. Just last year 17 million vehicles were sold here in the U.S which 98% makes up ICE sales. i imagine how many ICE were sold with in the last 20 years. Ha. EVs are an Ant in ICE market share.
     
    #453 eman08, Jun 14, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2018
  14. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    yeah, have to agree with you there. the odds of toyota being around long term are much higher than tesla. but it's a cash flow thing, not philosophical.
     
  15. eman08

    eman08 Active Member

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    The Prius aren't that expensive to fix compared to luxury cars. Sure some of the Hybrid componets maybe expensive but the rest of car, parts are inexpensive compared to a Tesla or any other luxury car. Everything on a Tesla is outragously expesnive since it's a "Luxury" brand. From, Brembo brakes, Air Shock Suspension that cost $2,000 per axle on a Model S. At least with everyone else you have access to cheaper options of after market parts. You just don't have that option for Tesla that has full monoploy on them.

    Posted via the PriusChat mobile app.
     
  16. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    oops - even as of last October (over ½yr ago), you still missed it by 50K -
    Tesla has now sold 250,000 electric cars, more than GM (but fewer than Nissan)
    & the increase of delivery rates are increasing.

    i fear the point - you're still missing it. Let me try again .......
    Yes really really really expensive parts - really. Got it. Said, & said again. Now the point - despite all that bad - despite long waits - & fit & finish - & batteries not lasting to ½million miles - & yes really really expensive parts .... 100's of 1,000's still have a deposit - just to wait. (whew!) & most are conquest sales .... and despite all the negativity & downplay & 'sky is falling' & 'but they're horrible' outcry - still, crazy lines .... DESPITE all that. THAT's the point - & that's what seems to escape you - that this is quite a phenomenon, never seen before ... people jumping ship, for transportation that was never offered before. So carry on and point out how horrible it all is, which in effect just makes the phenomenon that much more incredible.
    .
     
    #456 hill, Jun 14, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2018
  17. eman08

    eman08 Active Member

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  18. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Do you consider hybrids a niche market?
     
  19. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    downplay .... yes, still missing the point.
    .
     
  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    there's a point?:p
     
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