Toyota's Master Plan

Godzilla tries to incinerate the Black Forest.

Uncle Sam gazes on from the sidelines.

Maybe Bill Gates and Steve Jobs should together enter the car business. They could probably buy a few shut-down GM and Ford plants cheaply.

 

"Sometime around 2010, Mr. Okamoto says, Toyota plans to have the capability to build about 1 million hybrid vehicles a year .... around that time, we would be able to reduce the cost, and have the cost of hybrid engines and gasoline engines comparable."

Toyota announced 400,000 (300k from 05) hybrids a year in 2006 right? That's almost half way there. In 5 years (one generation for car redesign) the cost of HSD and ICE only automatic transmission Toyota would be basically the same! The new Toyota President is also famous for price cutting.

No wonder Diesel supporters are scrumbling. They don't even have the technology to meet US pollution standard and yet in 5 years, they'll have to make it cost the same as gas engine cars. A very challenging goal (if not impossible), if you ask me.

 

The technology already exists in the form of selective catalytic reduction (SCR), based on urea injection into the exhaust. The problem is the urea tank needs to be topped up every 20,000 miles or so, so the US won't allow it. Mercedes are close to having them back down on this, and then they will be able to sell 'Bluetec' diesel cars in California etc. even when the toughest emissions restrictions come into force.

 

The European car manufacturers are painting Diesel as an end-all superior to hybrid... but in reality, it's no holy grail... It's got serious issues, serious drawbacks, and really it seems like the car makers are just hoping that people think just with their pocketbooks about the fuel savings instead of with their lungs...

Hybrids have drawbacks too of course, but at least we can be confident in saying that our cars are hallmarks of low emissions.

 

As far as I'm aware, every European manufacturer now has a hybrid research programme. Remember that the first plug-in hybrids in the world were sold in Europe by Renault and VW many years ago - long before this forum ever appeared.

The problem is still the bottom line. They'll all bring hybrids to market once they think they'll get a good return on them. When they do, most wish to partner the technology with diesel engines for a number of reasons, not least to do with European thinking on renewable energy and where the future transport fuels will come from. Today's hybrids are powered by gasoline, which today comes only from crude oil pumped out of the ground largely in unstable dictatorships supported by dubious political alliances. Diesel engines can run on biodiesel or even straight vegetable oil, which can be home grown and if done properly even CO2 neutral, and are up to 50% efficient.

But the major reason for choosing diesel engine over gasoline engine is still outright efficiency. Gasoline engines are typically about 25% efficient and at best 35% efficient (with Atkinson cycle in the Prius), while diesel engines are up to 50% efficient.

 

Yes yes, no doubt Diesel is an interesting technology, but lets talk about here and now.

You can't buy a diesel-hybrid (unless you wanted a bus) right now. You can't buy a diesel with advanced emissions controls in the US.

Heck... in some important places in the US, you can't buy a diesel mid-size or compact car... period. Emissions are just not acceptable here yet.

My original point goes back to the thing with the urea tank. This is at least a few years off before diesel cars show up in the US with that... and no one is going to mention the extra maintenance that will require. Diesel advocates are only pushing the penny-pinching aspect to Americans now, simply because on the environmental front, you can only talk about how diesel *will be* environmentally sound in a few years, but not now...

Moreover, the europeans are rushing forward with hybrid technology simply because they are in a panic that they might lose the biggest car market on the planet : North America, to a new technology that the Japanese have at least a few years advantage.