What if: The Oil Runs Out

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Washington1788 @ Aug 2 2007, 02:14 PM) [snapback]489472[/snapback]</div>

Oil is not going to run out. The problem is not in the amount of oil, it is getting it out of the ground and to market quick enough. We will have mass hysteria and market collapse from peak oil long before we need to worry about running out of oil.

That said, replacing oil as the lifeblood of our economy is something that needed attention 20 to 30 years ago during the first oil shocks. Considering we are, at best, 5 years from the world oil production peak and still doing nothing about it, I think we are a little late.

As far as checking it out, what station is playing this program?

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Washington1788 @ Aug 2 2007, 03:14 PM) [snapback]489472[/snapback]</div>

I always wondered what if the sky fell down! I still check everyday!!

Oil will never run out. Same as gold and diamonds or just about anything else extracted from the earth. It may become somewhat scarcer (as in more expensive to extract) as time goes on and therefore the price will creep up (although the price of oil is affected by many other factors other than supply). As the price creeps up other forms of energy (coal, nuclear, wind, solar) will become more in vogue. Politicians talk is cheap, but consumers will always go with the cheapest form of energy available. Politicians who force the populace to purchase other more expensive forms of energy rarely have a job come the next election.

It is now thought the Arctic may have over 10 billion tons (that's TONS, not barrels) of gas and oil. Other sources state Iraq may have vast untapped reserves. Same with the Gulf of Mexico.

You are probably young and somewhat gullible to such Chicken Little scenarios played time and time again here at Priuschat and in the media (after all, they got to make a living too), but don't lose any sleep over so called schemes such as "Peak Oil" and "AGW". I remember when I was young we were taught oil would be extremely scarce if not available by the turn of the century (why, the gas lines of 1973 "proved" it!). We were taught the world would soon increase so much in population that food supplies would collapse (ala Soylent Green...). Oh, and don't forget the Time Magazine article regarding the coming Ice Age (many "expert" climatologists were referenced). I probably left out a few other impending calamities but...

Rick
#4 2006

 

First of all the show is based on a what if scenario. Don't know how much they will cover how we get there, but that may be beside the point of telling an engaging story with a bit of drama tossed in for good edutainment.

Second, you are correct oil will not run out, its cheap oil that will run out. Gaining access to the remaining oil deposits in the ground will be challenging due to geographic, geopolitical, environmental and economic concerns (shale oil is abundant but hard to make economical not to mention is huge environmental impact).

Isn't the real issue here HOW MUCH we rely on cheap oil from plastics to fabrics to lubricants. The entire delivery and manufacturing sector depends on oil being cheap. If that changes, the impacts will be felt down the entire line. Think about your last Dr visit. Just how much oil based stuff was used (syringes, cups, stethoscope, the chair the Dr sits on or you sit on, the container the alcohol wipes come in etc...) and all that stuff in the good Doctor's office got there via... bingo an oil based delivery system.

Interesting stuff and I am sure we will be the first ones to experience some changes in the next 10 - 20 years.

 

I've seen it. It was OK, not great. They, and every other documentary I've seen fail to address the real problem, which is agriculture. Food production and delivery of that food.


"It is now thought the Arctic may have over 10 billion tons (that's TONS, not barrels) of gas and oil. Other sources state Iraq may have vast untapped reserves. Same with the Gulf of Mexico."

If there were that much oil, we would not be so worried about the geopolitics of the middle east.
We we would instead have our military stationed in the arctic.
Hubbert's peak has shown inself to be right time and time again.
Worlwide oil discoveries peaked decades ago and has been declining ever since. Worldwide production is peaking now. You want to suck the oil straw faster? Fine, but then the production decline is a cliff, not a slope, providing no time or energy to produce alternatives.

If ANYONE could confirm a depost of billions of tonnes of oil, it would be all over the news and the price of oil would not be at an all time high. Where is the confirmations of vast oil deposits for us to exploit that you seem to think are waiting for us?

Even CERA, the leading misleader of energy issues have acknowledged that we'll have shortages in a few years. Why don't you actually study the issue. Go to www.theoildrum.com and read what oil industry workers and retirees have to say about it. They work in that industry and know a lot more about it than you.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Darwood @ Aug 2 2007, 05:06 PM) [snapback]489571[/snapback]</div>

You mean like the Russians did today?

Keeping up with current events helps when trying not to insert foot in mouth. Ancient Proverb.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(viking31 @ Aug 2 2007, 03:35 PM) [snapback]489531[/snapback]</div>

I was eleven in '73. I don't remember being told that "oil would be unavailable at the turn of the century." I was told that it would become increasingly scarce and expensive, and that the environmental conditions of the planet would be gradually degraded as oil consumption increases.

Sounds about right to me.

Seems to me that oil companies will prolong our use of oil as long as possible (as will OPEC...they magically increased the supply of oil in the mid-80's as a response to the MPG gains in this country caused by CAFE regulations)...it's not about oil running out, it's about prolonging our addiction too long at the expense of "what's next."

This is exactly what OPEC and other sources of foreign oil would like to see...the US remaining dependent on their product as long as possible.

You don't realize it, but you're playing right into their trap by suggesting the things which you do.