When the Arctic melts, who gets the oil?

Not to mention the release of methane hydrates captured in the ice and the permafrost. You may think that human caused CO2 emissions have changed the environment! (Just to be clear, humans are causing or going to cause huge increases in greenhouse gas emissions once we have major permafrost melting. The denial community just doesn't understand the magnitude of this potential,, to their peril).

Icarus

Cue the deniers!

 

The seals, the rest of us will be under water.

 

The CO2 is just a trigger for the methane.

The oil will go to whichever company pumps it the fastest.

 

Current CO2 emissions (along with other human generated greenhouse gases) abet the warming, with in turn melts the ice (and the permafrost) and releases the methane with is a much more effective greenhouse gas,, leading to an uncontrollable feed back loop! The trigger point is very close, perhaps past.

 

The positive feedback described above is probable, to some degree or another. But based on 'paleo' research, it is not unbounded. A too-hot earth undergoes more rapid mineral weathering. The primary silicate rocks consume carbonate, and atmospheric CO2 eventually goes down again.

Kinda works the other way to get out of a glacial stage. There is less mineral weathering. Also there is less biological trapping of CO2 (as buried organic matter on land and that plus phytoplankton 'carbonate shells' at sea). Cumulative volcanic release of CO2 probably also contributes to ending ice ages.

So, the good news is that the earth can repair quite large releases of CO2 and methane (which becomes CO2 in the oxygen-rich atmosphere). The bad news is that these geological processes are slow. Much slower than the 100-year human scale or the 1000-year civilization scale.

Now, Hansen's worry is that putting a very large amount of infrared absorber in the atmosphere would tip the Earth into 'Venus mode'. I cannot guess whether burning all the fossil C could do that, but it also would take a 'geological' amount of time because the global ocean would also need to evaporate. That's where we REALLY don't want to go, because it appears to be irreversible.

 

past. go back to suv's now.

 

Keep in mind that when Greenland melts, the freshwater input to the ocean shuts off the Gulf Stream which then cools the northern hemisphere and brings on the next ice age. Every ice age has been preceded by rapid climate warming. As a geologist, I can't wait for the next ice age!!

 

We should be making our way into another ice age even without the Gulf Stream shutdown. That being said, I'm sure cro-magnons (or Magdalenian if one prefers) in Britain and in the middle east didn't enjoy the Younger Dryas event. lol

 

That war has not yet been fought.

 

Most agree with the idea that the more oil we find, the more we'd use. But from history, we learn that we never learn from history. Example here would be "guestimations" of anwr drilling and beyond. The experts "say" there are vast quantities in the arctic circle. That doesn't mean the guesses will ever pan out. Reserves in mexico ... south america ... alaska ... etc, NONE of them have ever panned out like the 70 & 80 year old mega fields in the middle east. Not even the oil pools in the contenental U.S. were as big. Subsequent finds have been pale in comparison, and peaked WAY faster than the middle east did. So whether the temperatures continue to climb and ice continues to melt, it may not matter that much as to making up for the slowly dieing mega fields. Even if the Arctic circle could make up for those giant's production, and their ever spirialing into the land of 'diminishing returns' ... world oil consumption needs to increase vastly if we are to return to explosive "growth" like in the good ol' days. We NEED an "endless supply" to match the good ol' days. It aint there. Yes, some people actually theorize the earth's center somehow magically continues to re-create oil as fast as we use it . . . . a kind of bottomless pit of gooy nouget fuel (shaking head) . . . all we have to do is look harder.

Good news is that since we've peaked cheep oil production ... C02 will not have to be argued about, as to whether it's man made or not. Peak everything fuels: A natural equalizer to C02 concerns.


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