While we wait for plug-in hybrids, electric cars bridge the gap

While we wait for plug-in hybrids, electric cars bridge the gap View Web
10/25/2008
Detroit News - Online
Electric cars are coming, but a few things need to be sorted out first.

I've been driving around in a battery-powered Smart car, and a mightily impressive little thing it is too. It zips along silently at up to 60 mph. Well, to be fair, it zips up to 50 mph, then staggers to 60 mph, if you can find a handy down-hill gradient or a following wind.

So this is not a car for the highway. Around town it is terrific, with one huge disadvantage. Every time you set out on a trip you ask yourself, is there enough juice in the battery (there is only a battery) to get back safely? Mercedes, which owns Smart, said there is about 70 miles in a battery, but I found that 50 miles was probably a safer bet.

And when the battery indicator starts to fall below half-full, paranoia sets in. You switch off the air-conditioning first, then even the radio, desperate to conserve power. I found myself switching off the direction indicators early just in case that might be the difference between being stranded and getting home safely. Another worry is the silence of your progress, which could well endanger pedestrians and your pet animals.

Cars like the battery Smart, and the electric Mini, are really interim solutions before the Chevrolet Volt and other so-called plug-in hybrids emerge on the market later in 2010. The Volt is said to have a battery-only range of about 40 miles. You then turn on the internal combustion engine to charge the battery and extend your journey, while later plugging in the battery overnight to fill it up again (6-1/2 hours in America, 3 hours in most parts of Europe where the supply voltage is different).

Some questions have been raised about the viability of the Volt. Apparently it is impossible to charge the battery during the initial 40 miles or so, unlike a Toyota Prius. Will the performance from the battery be adequate as soon as you switch to the gasoline generator, or will you spend a few miles dawdling along? GM so far hasn't replied to my e-mail seeking clarification.

According to investment bank Credit Suisse, in the coming battle to replace conventional internal combustion engines, batteries will win, while hydrogen powered fuel cells will remain a distant dream.

But the internal combustion engine, under threat from legislators around the world who apparently think carbon dioxide (CO2) from car exhausts warms the climate, still has much to offer. 'In the short to medium term, we expect optimizing internal combustion engine technology to dominate efficiency efforts. We expect gasoline direct-injection and turbo-charging penetration to reach about 30 percent in Europe by early next decade, with VW and BMW leading the roll-out. We expect fuel-efficiency improvements without sacrificing performance to become the main goal in engine development,' said Credit Suisse analyst Arndt Ellinghorst.

Expect American manufacturers to be prominent too. 'Fill it up or plug it in? Gas stations will remain a familiar sight for drivers as rapid improvements in conventional engine technology lead fuel efficiency efforts. Longer term we expect battery technology to win out over hydrogen alternatives thanks to superior infrastructure cost and energy storage capabilities,' Ellinghorst said.

New lithium ion batteries, being developed to power plug-in hybrids like the Volt, will lead this push to electrification. Battery life and the reduction of charging time are key subjects of research, as is battery cost. The price of oil will also have a big impact on the public's interest in batteries, and according to a study carried out for Credit Suisse by automotive consultancy A.T.Kearney, electric vehicle penetration will reach 10 percent globally by 2020 if the price of a barrel of oil is close to $100 a barrel, and up to 25 percent if it rises to $200.

'Beyond 2020, prospects for internal combustion engine technology appear grim, in our view, barring an unexpected sharp decline in the price of oil,' Ellinghorst said.

One huge advantage that battery powered cars currently have over gasoline and diesel powered cars is the massive difference in the cost of filling it up. According to Mercedes, if you plug the Smart into your house overnight it will fill the tank at a cost one- sixth of the price of gasoline.

'The electric Smart is capable of approximately 300 mpg, amounting to a saving of up to 80 percent in fuel costs (in Europe) over its already highly economical Smart ForTwo (which does 54.7 miles per U.S. gallon),' Mercedes said.

Dr. Peter Wells, Reader at Cardiff Business School and co-director of the Centre for Automotive Research, reckons that although battery power has clear limitations, it may well catch on because organizations like project Better Place are concentrating investment to get around some of the drawbacks with some neat ideas.

Better Place is a U.S. venture capital backed organization which builds battery charging points and battery-swap stations for electric cars. So far it has sponsored projects in Denmark, Israel and Australia.

In Israel, Better Place plans to build between 350,000 and 500,000 recharging points and 125 swap stations. So when you park your battery car at the office or the shopping mall you can plug it in. If you are running on empty you just find the closest swap station, dump your dead one and put in a fully charged battery. Better Place, which says it is like the early mobile phone operators who built the infrastructure which enabled a new technology to reach viability, has a tie-in with the Renault-Nissan alliance to supply it with vehicles.

Wells said this project will supply a critical mass of vehicles in the areas it serves. 'Recharge and battery swap points take away a problem gnawing away at the project: What do you do when the battery runs out of power? The Volt gets over this problem but with a less-than-ideal compromise. Whichever way you look at it, the internal combustion engine equals more cost, more components, more weight. This is an intelligent solution though; the gasoline engine runs at a constant speed, you can get away with a smaller engine (1.4 litre turbo-charged gasoline). It's a nice solution in many respects, but not ideal,' Well said.

Wells points out that in coming years many governments and local ones too will insist on certain areas being zero emission zones, so the Volt won't be able to handle that. 'The answer lies in vehicles which are designed as electric from the start,' he said. Wells doesn't expect any one technology to dominate in the short to medium term, while fuel cells still remain over the horizon.

Alex Woodrow, director and head of research at British consultancy Knibb, Gormezano and Partners, reckons that the internal combustion engine has much life left in it, and retains an overwhelming advantage -- cost.

The Volt is expected to cost upwards of $40,000 when it first comes to market, with all its limitations. Currently, a high-tech diesel will provide much better performance, huge range, and 50 miles per U.S. gallon at half that price.

'Nothing in the near future will be as cost effective. In 10 to 20 years time, we'll still have the internal combustion engine, when hydrogen power might start to appear, although that is likely to have a substantial CO2 content. If solar, wind and wave power can be developed, that would be clean,' Woodrow said.

Meanwhile, cars will be powered by many different fuels, with say, ethanol in Brazil given local growing conditions, and a broader mix in the U.S. with nuclear, hydro, and 2nd and 3rd generation bio fuels.

Cardiff Business School's Wells points to one cloud on the horizon -- there might not be enough batteries to go around. 'There are likely to be huge supply constraints and key bottlenecks in battery technology. There's not enough people out there with enough production capacity. This might force car manufacturers to take a leaf out of the old Ford playbook. It started making its own steel in 1912, when its demand outstripped supply,' Wells said.

Credit Suisse's Ellinghorst said the electrification of the car jeopardizes a key element of the industry -- its ability to make a core component.

'The shift to electric vehicles could lead to an outsourcing of powertrain technology. This may undermine the current business model of many carmakers and we would not be surprised to see them invest heavily in, or acquire, key battery makers and battery system integrators,' he said.

One key element in this process will not avoid the public's scrutiny for long. All the carmakers talk blithely about how their emission-free vehicles will help save the planet, skating over the fact the most of the power still comes from old, dirty, CO2-heavy, coal fired power stations. Peugeot of France recently talked about its commitment to offering all its customers an electric eco-car. In France, where about 80 percent of electricity is generated by nuclear power, this claim makes sense. But not anywhere else.