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Whom the Gods would destroy . . .

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Oct 15, 2012.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    From Henrik Fisker:
    Source: Designing the Future of Electric Cars - WSJ.com

    All hybrid cars are running less than 3% of the total market in month 10 of 2012. So he projects a doubling in eight years after 12 years of existing hybrid sales?

    So the Prius remains 2/3ds of all hybrid sales with just a handful coming, as a group, close. So Fisker hopes to get 1/3d of all hybrid sales? (NOTE: he meant 2-3% of the hybrids, a realistic ratio.)

    It does not good to fight over our tiny part of the market when there are broad groups that have no practical hybrid offering.

    Bob Wilson
     
  2. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    I read that as 2-3% of hybrid sales only. That would be (2% to 3%) X (6% to 8%) = 0.12% to 0.24% of global auto sales.

    50,000 cars/year is already less than 1/3 of worldwide hybrid sales.
     
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  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Thanks, I missed "of that hybrid market." Now it makes sense.

    So how does that phrase go,'Those the Gods would destroy, they first make math.'

    Bob Wilson
     
  4. spwolf

    spwolf Senior Member

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    If 3% is 50k a year, that means hybrid market is going to be 1.65M?

    No wonder his company is in the state it is :).

    6%-8% isnt really that far fetched... i would hope it would be more... 2020 is almost 2 generations ahead of us today.

    By today's numbers, 6% would be 3.6 million... not too much.

    Bob - he speaks about global market... 3% you reference is for US market only, not global right? Although number is close actually... 3rd world countries are China are 0% HV, but Japan today sells a lot of HV's and brings up the numbers, so worldwide, a bit less than 3% today.

    Interesting fact I came up with, now Austin will be worried even more :)

    Below, a summary of global car production by country in 2011:
    Rank Country
    Cars produced
    % of total
    world production
    1 China
    14,485,326
    24.2%
    2 Japan
    7,158,525
    11.9%
    3 Germany
    5,871,918
    9.8%
    4 South Korea
    4,221,617
    7.0%
    5 India
    3,053,871
    5.1%
    6 U.S.A.
    2,966,133
    4.9%
    7 Brazil
    2,534,534
    4.2%
    8 France
    1,931,030
    3.2%
    9 Spain
    1,819,453
    3.0%
    10 Russia
    1,738,163
    2.9%
    11 Mexico
    1,657,080
    2.8%
    12 Iran
    1,413,276
    2.4%
    13 U.K.
    1,343,810
    2.2%
    14 Czech Republic
    1,191,968
    2.0%
    15 Canada
    990,483
    1.7%
    16 Poland
    785,000
    1.3%
    17 Slovakia
    639,763
    1.1%
    18 Turkey
    639,734
    1.1%
    19 Argentina
    577,233
    1.0%
    20 Belgium
    562,386
    1.0%
    21 Indonesia
    561,863
    1.0%
    22 Thailand
    549,770
    0.9%
    23 Malaysia
    496,440
    0.8%
    24 Italy
    485,606
    0.8%
    25 Romania
    310,243
    0.5%
    26 Taiwan
    288,523
    0.5%
    27 Hungary
    200,000
    0.3%
    28 Sweden
    188,969
    0.3%
    29 Slovenia
    168,955
    0.3%
    30 Uzbekistan
    146,300
    0.2%
    31 Portugal
    141,779
    0.2%
    32 Pakistan
    139,200
    0.2%
    33 Austria
    130,343
    0.2%
    34 Ukraine
    97,585
    0.2%
    35 Venezuela
    69,115
    0.1%
    36 Vietnam
    43,780
    0.1%
    37 Philippines
    43,280
    0.1%
    38 Netherlands
    40,772
    0.1%
    39 Colombia
    30,000
    0.1%
    40 Serbia
    15,050
    0.0%
    41 Finland
    2,540
    0.0%
    Others
    197,600
    0.3%
    Total
    59,929,016
    100.0%
     
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    This is what you meant?
    Like many, I tend to think locally and not globally. Regardless, there is such a long way to go.

    Bob Wilson
     
  6. cwerdna

    cwerdna Senior Member

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    At first, I thought this was a thread about Whom Gods Destroy (episode) - Memory Alpha, the Star Trek Wiki but in the wrong area. :)
    I haven't read the article yet, but if Fisker is trying for 1/3 of hybrid sales, HAHAHAHAHA! Considering how little headway anyone else has made against Toyota... err.... I also think Fisker's chance of survival until 2020 is slim.
     
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    My apology, I had missed that he jumped from hybrids as a fraction of the world wide market to his hybrid as a fraction of the hybrid market. My mistake.

    I've edited my original post to correct the error. But the problem of 'great expectations' remains.

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. spwolf

    spwolf Senior Member

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    thanks bob for the formatting... problem being their that in China, India, Brasil, I doubt hybrids will be sold in 2020 even.

    However we are now at accelerating track.. Ford might follow Toyota by 2020 and have all of their models as hybrids, like Toyota will by 2015.

    If that happens with Toyota, Honda and Ford, they will get a lot bigger piece of pie, especially in developed countries.
     
  9. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney EditProfOptInfoCustomUser Title

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    This. I can see significant growth happening in the developed markets as long as batteries continue to get cheaper, because cheaper batteries will cause rapid growth in plug-in hybrids. Unfortunately, right now Toyota's lithium is expensive, which will slow down the growth.
     
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  10. walter Lee

    walter Lee Hypermiling Padawan

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    In the 1990s, I remember reading auto manufacturers/analyst assessing that hybrid tech would be a short transitionary technology between fossil fuel based and electrical based vehicles. However given the lack of progress in hi energy density battery tech (e.g. Air Lithium Battery Packs) - it looks like that BEVs will not be competitive with hybrids for atleast another 20 years (5 car generation away) and ISTM the tipping point will likely be when gasoline prices reaches over $14 per gallon (2030-2040 time frame?). The price trend charts at gasbuddy*com for the last 8 years suggest that regular gas prices may reach $8 per gallon by 2020 in some USA metro areas with 50 mpg being the minimum standard rather than the top end for fuel efficiency. Everything is relative - so $14/gallon is still economically viable if your vehicle gets +100 mpg.
     
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I love the irony:
    Just in time for sea water powered fusion power plants.

    Bob Wilson

    ps. I would like to share my table formatting tricks:

    {table} . . . {/table} -- Use "[" instead of "{", these start and stop a table
    {tr}{th}..{th}..{th}.. -- This is the first, header row with the column labels
    {tr}{td}..{td}..{td}.. -- Each data row starts with "tr" and uses "td" starts/end each column

    Note that in a 'proper' table, the ending {/tr}, {/th}, and {/td} would be required. But experiments have shown they are redundant and can be omitted. This significantly reduces the amount of formatting text.

    I typically use excel and the "=concatenate(str1, str2, str3 . . . )" to create the table rows.

    The last trick is to remove the line returns from the excel generated table. The hard returns pass through the table and add extra, blank lines. Regardless of the table size, it needs to look like one big mass of text.

    I have not figured out how to right justify the numbers versus left justify the text, the default.
     
  12. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Bob, In 2020, if the US light vehicle market of 14 million, the same as predicted for this year, and 6% are hv or phevs, not a far fetched assumption for 2020 then cafe standards have greatly kicked in for the car market, that gives 840K hybrids - hv and phev in 2020/year. Some have been predicting much higher.

    Now nothing has gone wrong in the math, and I don't know the full quote, but getting 3% of the US market would give fisker 25K phevs/year -karmas and atlantics. I'm sure he is expecting European and Chinese sales also. World wide auto sales this year are above 60M and expected to grow 3%/year. 50K/year is definitely doable with a designer like fisker, but fisker has had big car companies - aston martin (ford) and bmw behind him in the past.
     
  13. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    With almost 25% of the cars being made in China, and most staying there, the important question is the price of gasoline in China, not the US.

    What kind of extrapolation was used to find that $8?
     
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  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Funny you should mention China. I saw a Chinese 'hybrid' at the 2009 Detroit Auto Show. My impression was a Soviet design bureau had attempted to copy a hybrid from a magazine article. VERY strong metal parts . . .

    Bob Wilson
     
  15. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Remember China is the largest auto market in the world right now, and its far from saturated. I expect government incentives to make most hybrids plug-ins over there by 2020. They will have much bigger problems with gasoline than with the grid. Definitely enough rich people to buy some sporty phevs if promoted correctly. I expect the prius to continue to do badly in china even with chinese production, given the political aspects. Other non-Japanese foreign makers can do well.
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I am reminded of GM's claim that their first generation BAS systems were hybrids. Although the more recent ones have nearly doubled the capacity, they still remain at best a faint shadow of the Honda IMA. I remain concerned that the definition of a 'hybrid', especially the low end, remains open to interpretation.

    The one correlation that appears to hold is the ratio of fuel cost (and HOV access) as a hybrid sales enabler. If peak oil, price impacts hold true, we're likely to see an economic push towards serious, fuel efficient vehicles, hybrid or other. But we've seen half a decade of near flat-line of hybrid sales, ~2.5-3.0%, in spite of price hits.

    I'm willing to roll over on Fisker's numbers as I had misread his original quote. I'm more concerned about seeing an increase in hybrid ratio of the car market.

    Bob Wilson
     
  17. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    IMHO you need to go phev to really use two energy sources. The prius just buffers gasoline:) Even here the karma is much less efficient than other phevs. To get to 2025 cafe standards some hybrid tech will be included in cars.​

    Competition has increased also. IMHO if you froze safety and emissions regulations here, other than smart. The only real progress since the previous peak of 2007 is cost reduction in mid size cars, and the prius c lower priced hybrid. The camry, fusion, and sonata hybrids are going to be at the point in the next generation where they have more hp than the gas version, but have a 5 year payback on fuel. That's when you get 30% hybrids sold.

    I expect to hit 4% by 2016. Very slow progress. It will mainly come from the plug-ins but that will lower the costs for lithium batteries, motors, electric air-conditioners and water pumps. These will drop the cost of hybrid tech for that 2020 time frame.
     
  18. walter Lee

    walter Lee Hypermiling Padawan

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    My initial $8/gallon eyeball estimate is based of the linear trend of gas price chart that I was looking at via Gasbuddy's -years price chart. From 1990 to 2001 the average price for regular gasoline was somewhat stable from about $1.00 to $1.50 but sometime around 2001-2002 gas prices started climbing in this trend. On closer examination it looks like the average price of regular gasoline is climbing about 33 cent per gallon per year so it is increasing about $1 more per every 3 years - via in cycles of ups and downs. If 2012-2013 is about $4/gallon, then a more precise estimation would be $6.66/gallon in about 2020 and about $8/gallon of regular gas at about 2024. So what is my hidden assumption? - Global Peak Oil occured at about 2002 and the price of oil/gasoline will continue rise as the demand for oil/fossil fuels outstrips our ability to pump it out of the earth. Prices will continue to rise until the global economy makes a transition away from its dependency on oil/fossil fuel for economic growth.

    Currently, China subsidize gasoline as part of its plan to spur economic growth - reports that I have read is that cheap gas and cheaper conventional gas cars make it difficult to convince the average chinese consumer to buy BEV like the BYD e6 ( or a hybrid). So far I haven't read anything that would point to China reducing their gasoline price subsidies or limiting oil consumption - albeit China has invested heavily into renewable energy tech. It's not a good sign. Note that GM has a automotive presence in China as well - their most popular model a Buick is a fuel sucking pig too. Chinese buy Buicks for the same reason people buy Cadillacs, Lexus, Infinity, BMW, and Mercedes Benz vehicles in the USA - status and luxury. China is sort of caught up in a growth frenzy like that of the USA in the 1950-1960. Fuel efficiency is not a top priority for the Chinese. sigh. China is not only buying oil and natural gas from the USA(via seagoing megatankers) but from Russia (via pipeline from Siberia). China also buys oil from africa(Sudan) and the middle east(countries which will remain nameless for now) which is why Chinese leaders are concern with upsetting the status quo there, i.e. Arab Spring, in fears that it could alter current chinese business arrangments. The Chinese government tends to be very guarded economically -- not wanting anyone to *rain on their parade*
     
  19. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    I would say that a linear extrapolation is a hidden assumption. I don't know of any reason to accept that. US DoE uses an exponential extrapolation (6% increase or so). But I don't know any reason to accept that either. Price demand curves get complicated in a hurry. Check out recent prices of gold, as an example.

    So given that, an given that they have about 4 times the population of the US, what makes you think that when the Chinese have achieved a US standard of living (currently using 25% of the world total), and have a oil consumption approximately equal to the world's production, that the US will be getting any.
     
  20. walter Lee

    walter Lee Hypermiling Padawan

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    I agree that forecasting gas prices is difficult - but for lack of a better system - I am using a simply linear regression model starting from 2002 and upwards for personal budgeting and planning purposes. I believe that for the next 25 years a linear regression model will roughly suffice my own needs albeit if one wants to takes a longer viewpoint an exponential extrapolation will likely be a better model. However, I will likely be long dead within the next 20 years. Gold is not going to behave similar to oil as a commodity market because gold is not a non-renewable resource that is spent and transformed but a immutable substance.

    You've misread my posting. I did not state that China has achieved the same standard of living as the USA nor did I say that China would be exporting oil. Rather I said that China is has become a major importer of oil (with the USA being one of the major exporters oil to China).

    To be more precise. In 2011, there was 1344 million chinese compared to about 311 million Americans ( 4.32x the USA population) The world population is about 7046 million. So this means China makes about 19% of the world's population and India makes about another 18%. China's government defines its middle class as a three member household which has an annual income of about $9000 to 79,000 USD per year which the conservatively is estimated to be about 12% of the population of China - this is the demographic group in China that is likely to buy a motor vehicle in China -- about 161 million. China uses oil not just for energy but for industrial manufacturing so gasoline consumption would only be one component of several. If anything - as the Chinese economy grows, its demand for fossil fuel will drive the price of oil up. This year the chinese government raise the price of both gas and diesel fuel, a gallon of gasoline in China cost about $4.27 /gallon[1]

    [1]
    China Increases Fuel Prices for First Time in Five Months - Bloomberg

    .