Will we see 20 year old Priuses still on the road?

Discussion in 'Gen 3 Prius Main Forum' started by Tom777, Oct 13, 2015.

  1. Slick26

    Slick26 Junior Member

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    My dad has a 2003 Prius with over 200k miles. Still runs great. My guess is yes, they'll last that long.


     
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  2. frodoz737

    frodoz737 Top Wrench

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    Yea...I saw a pristine 1974 Vega a couple of years ago too. Guarantee ya I maintain and fix my vehicles better than 99%, but a Prius is low cost transportation for me and as soon as the TCO goes to high...bye-bye...next. ;)
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i'm sure miles have a lot to do with it, but there are plenty of people here with 240k on theirs, and few problems.
    you just have to be comfortable knowing anything could go wrong at any time. if it's just a local car, which many 20+ year old cars are, no prolemo.
     
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  4. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    Looking over the amortized TCO of my Prius in the past 8 years, I'm seeing that there would be room for even a couple very expensive things to happen without the amortized cost rising unreasonably high. Not that I'm hoping they'll happen, mind ....

    -Chap
     
  5. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Sand Pounder

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    Our's is a likely candidate for longevity: garage stored, low usage, about 10,000 kilometers in a year. Generally babied. But I'm not delusional, what could kill it is the prohibitively replacement high cost of so many items. OTOH, I'm biased towards repairing rather than replacing, better the devil you know...
     
  6. HaroldW

    HaroldW Active Member

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    I have a 2006 with 80,000 kilometers on it. It is still on the original battery 12v battery. I believe it will make more than 20 years. Even though it is my wife's car. The only issue with this car is the drivers seat floor mounts (one only) rust. It was rusty when I first purchased the car. I will see if toyota will change it someday. Great car. Not as efficient as the 2014 but still very efficient. H
     
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  7. energyandair

    energyandair Active Member

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    I am sure we will see 20 year old Priuses on the road. What fraction of those originally sold, I am less sure of but I believe that it will be far more than many people think.

    It would be interesting to look up how many cars of different models remain on the road year by year. Does anyone know a good source?

    Reasons I'm optimistic are:
    • The Previa we bought in 92 IIRC and passed on to our son has never needed major maintenance. It's lived outdoors throughout, is at 194,000 miles and has not been pampered. It's no longer pretty but is showing no signs of dying yet
    • The Prius is not a luxury vehicle but it is a flagship vehicle for Toyota. Even for Toyota, it's built to a very high quality in the things that really matter.
    • The Prius is an extremely versatile vehicle that fits and will continue to fit the needs, if not always the wants, of a very large number of owners
    • It's track record for reliability thus far has been very good.
    • Before they are 20 years old, 2nd hand parts should be readily available
    • By the time they are old enough to be a $2000 vehicle they will still make sense for a lot of people buying at that price level
     
    #27 energyandair, Oct 18, 2015
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2016
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  8. The Electric Me

    The Electric Me Go Speed Go!

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    I hate to say this, because I think it will be unpopular in this venue.

    But while I think we will see 20+ year old Prius on the road, I think we are likely to see far less of them than perhaps other vehicles.

    This isn't a knock on the quality or reliability of The Prius, I believe this simply because of the nature of Hybrid Synergy Drive and the addition of Hybrid Components including electronics.

    Maybe it's changing or has changed for ALL vehicles. As all automobiles become more and more computer controlled, with more and more complicated components?

    But with a regular ICE vehicle, even as it ages, like a human, IF the big killer is Heart Disease and Cancer, with most regular vehicles the big killer becomes engines and transmissions.

    The decision to maintain an engine, or replace an engine or transmission is I think easier to do with a vehicle that operates primarily with ONLY those two components at the heart.

    Are a LOT of OLD Prius owners going to want or even financially going to be able to invest into engines, transmission, HV Batteries and other standard and hybrid components as they wear out in time? I think for the vast majority reaching that point where investment into continuation doesn't make financial sense will come somewhat sooner than later.

    I think there will be people willing and able to invest into maintenance and upkeep. If it is purely chronological, there will be Prius that get used far less than the average and simply have less wear on them in 20 years. I think the Prius is well built and designed. I think we will see 20 year old Prius on the road. Will they be common, or will we see an "above average" amount of them compared to other 20 year old vehicles....I don't think so.
     
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  9. Mendel Leisk

    Mendel Leisk Sand Pounder

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    Yup. It's like our last stove. would have cost nearly the price of a new stove to replace it's %$#& digital display. It'll take legislation to crack down on such wanton waste of resources.
     
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  10. frodoz737

    frodoz737 Top Wrench

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    I predict there will be a fare share on the road that make it to their 20th birthday...and pending any accidents my is very probable. Thing is I just don't want mine that long. Actually my next personal car will likely drink a lot more gas and be a lot more fun to drive...in the real world.
     
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  11. Redpoint5

    Redpoint5 Senior Member

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    One thing going for the Prius is the likely sky-high fuel prices in the future. 5-10 years from now people might be looking for cheap Prii to cut down on their fuel bill, and will be willing to fix many of the issues the Prius might have.
     
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  12. DumbMike

    DumbMike Active Member

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    I will keep my car until it costs more than about $2,000/year in repairs (and adjust later for inflation). But I think the car will only last about 15 years. I think 20 years is pushing it. I'm ready for the cost of a new battery, brakes, and a few large items over the next 10 years. It's those little things that bug me, like air conditioner, heater, nuts and bolts, windows, seat belts, blah, blah, blah, that go wrong due to wear and tear and will cost a few hundred here and there to fix. Sometimes, the price of a new (or relatively new) car is better than constantly fixing the old one.

    I was very upset when my Explorer blew up, forcing me to buy another car. But once I bought my Prius, I asked myself, "Why didn't I do this a lot earlier"?

    Mike
     
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  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    what kind of person drives a 20 year old car?
     
  14. Redpoint5

    Redpoint5 Senior Member

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    Usually the poor kind. Less common is the frugal kind.
     
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  15. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    OK. I'm in the lead. I have a 2001 still being fully used as a daily driver. 3/4 of the way there. I will not be putting significant extra effort into bringing it back from the dead if something big goes Kaput. I'm after reliable, economical transportation, not records. In fact, I may finally give in to a PHEV at some point instead of waiting for it to expire. So far it is the most reliable car I have ever had, so if it does not make it for 20 years, I'll still think it far exceeded all expectations over previous Camry's, Corolla's, and a Celica.
     
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  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    they're definitely not collectors cars. what would be worth putting in the barn from 1995? i see a few things on the car auctions, but they are selling below msrp.
     
  17. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    I see the Explorer has conditioned your expectations. Beware, It will be a LOOOOONG time before the brakes are ready for replacement on a Prius.
     
  18. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    or maybe one that gets attached to a car.....what does income status have to do with owning a vintage car, if anything your more likely to be wealthy to keep it on the road.
     
  19. Redpoint5

    Redpoint5 Senior Member

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    I'd be upset if I ever had to spend more than $100 in repairs on any car with 200,000 or fewer miles.

    I owned a 1996 Subaru Legacy until 2010 and it had 219,000 miles on it before being rear-ended. The previous owner had worn out the clutch from abuse, so I replaced that for about $100. I replaced the spark plugs once, and kept knocking out the dust from the air filter. Tires, gas, oil, insurance/registration and wiper blades were my only regular expenses. Not a single thing ever failed on it.
     
  20. MJ2005

    MJ2005 Junior Member

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    Frugal kind. In 2003 I sold my 93 Tercel to a buyer who was replacing his 20 year old car. That's what he did - buy them at 10 years old and drive them until 20 years old or so.

    He lives one town away from me. In 2013 I saw him drive right by me in my old car. I know because my very distinctive bumper stickers were still on it. That was a fun thing to see.

    I'm sentimental enough to be glad the car lasted so long but still glad I wasn't the one driving it for so many years!
     
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