Wired: 1 in 4 Americans considering EV/PHEV

Did you also read this study?

That 51% of people interested in EVs have unrealistic expectations for EVs?

Price and Range are the major points of contention when it comes to EV/PHEV adoption. It's good that 1:4 considering, but it will probably be 1:25 will actually even make an effort to test drive one (let alone but one)

 

Isn't that "ipodish" as far as consumer enthusiasm goes? Beyond the norm for a new technology?

 

There is no way in the world that the automotive industry world-wide could provide an EV to 1/25 of all the drivers in the U.S. in the next 5 years. If 1 out of 25 test-drove an EV in the next 5 years, and 1 out of 100 bought one, that would be a fabulous success for EVs, and would be more than adequate for the public to become aware of them, and for all the car testing agencies (Consumer Reports, car magazines, car TV shows, etc.) to test them and provide real-life numbers and experiences to the public.

Just as there was a lot of skepticism and misunderstanding about the Prius in the early years, and yet Toyota could not build them fast enough to meet the demand; but now it's just another mainstream car that gets better FE; so there is a lot of skepticism about EVs, but once they become available in reasonable numbers, they, too, will enter the mainstream.

Your 1 out of 25 estimate would be a fabulous success, and would lead to widespread adoption into the mainstream.

 

The 1:25 ratio would be just a test drive. That ratio is pretty generous.What's the close rate on a test drive?

People will consider it but half of the people that consider EVs have unrealistic expectations, so a good number of people will leave a dealership disappointed.

I really dislike the comparison between EV adoption rate and Prius adoption rate.How long did it take for the prius to take off? Gen II was when the prius hit it's stride. The Prius required NO extra infrastructure to be built or installed.

Many people do have 220, but it's only 20 amp (homes built in the 80's and 90's). Charging times for those people will be longer. Not everyone has their washer/dryer in the garage so lines will have to be run.

With the prius, it's your life as usual, put gas in it like anyother car and no new stations have to be built.

 

ljbad4life, most of the EV's will also come with a "convenience charger", often built into the trunk of the EV, that will charge the car at 120VAC, it will just take longer than 220-240VAC charging. Overnight should still be able to charge most of these EV's, even at 120VAC, so not everyone will need to get a 240VAC outlet wired in for the charger. Of course if you have a subpanel in the garage that can handle a 20/30AMP 240VAC circuit, so much the better, but it won't absolutley be required.

Nissan is also working on a public charging infrastructure, they have a 480VAC, 3 phase, 50KW fast charger than can charge the leaf in 27 minutes (quoting them), so if those do get deployed where people shop, you might have the ability to charge your Leaf (for example), while you shop. I would expect they will charge you something for the use of that charger for electricity, etc, but it might just be a few bucks. Point being that in California many places like COSTCO have already installed "paddle" chargers from the late 90's when the EV1 / RAV4 EV where popular, and that will probably continue with the deployment of newer EVs

Checkout Darrells Public Charging web page: http://www.evnut.com/charger_public.htm

 

You highlight exactly the point I am making. Things have to be built. Nothing extra had to be built for any hybrid and the adoption rate is still low. Do you think on day one (leaf release)that all of these structures are going to be in place? The fast charging stations are few and far between (that are planned in my area).

The slow charging (110v) can take as long as 16-18 hrs, thats alot more than a night.

 

16-18 hours is if the Leaf is mostly drained, most of them will not need %100 charge every night. For example, my commute is 17 miles each way, or 34 miles roundtrip, which is about 1/3 of the Leafs stated EV range of 100 miles, in my case I would only need to replenish the depleted charge, or 1/3 of the capacity, that will not take 16-18 hours @ 120V, more like 1/3 to 1/2 that time.

Again, nothing has to be built, if you are within the vehicles specs for your daily driving, and you have a place to plug it in, at either 120 or 240 @ home.

The pulic infrastructure will come later, and is not required on day 1.

 

by the way, check out the Tesla's at this public charging station dedication, make me almost want to shell out the $109K

Woodland dedication

 

How is that not required? not everyone lives in a suburb with a two car garage. What about renters (both apartment and house)? Condo owners? City dwellers?

If the Leaf is aimed solely at suburbanites with garages then it will fail. There is a reason Nissan is pushing for infrastructure so hard and it's because not everyone will have a place to charge at home or at work. If what you say is true then Nissan and other EV cos should just stop because they are wasting their time and our tax dollars.

 

don't be so glum, there is tremendous interest in the Leaf, and it will not fail for lack of places to charge it, more so because the cost may be more than most are willing to pay, and have ev "range anxiety". most city dwellers often park in a public parking garage overnight, or at work and may be able to charge at one of those locations. If they truly never park in a garage, then I doubt they have a need for a car anyway, as parking outside in a city 24/7 is difficult, if not impossible, because of snow removal/street cleaning/not being able to locate a parking space/vandalism, etc. Most will have access to a place to charge, and many parking garages will install at least 120V outlets at a minimum. I know the parking garage I park in is already considering this (Post Office Square in the Financial District, downtown Boston), many others will also do the same. You really are a negative nelly

 

Parking on the street is not that hard, infact most real cities, people park on the street and read signs.would you like me to take a picture of all the cars that are there right now?
Go to back bay, or beacon hill and see how many cars are parked on the street overnight, it might surprise you. If you are worried about vandalism to a locked car, how about leaving a car (for hours) that has a vital component open and exposed?

Again infrastructure will have to be built. it's a nice "green" initiative, but it's not a financial positive for a garage to install chargers (at 2-3k a pop) for the small number of people that will initially have an EV, plus the cost of an electrcian. There was a study done and it would take a 75% occupancy (an EV charging) on a particular charger to recoup the cost in 2 years. I'm not particularly being negative, but I'm not going to ignore facts just because they don't blend well of my vision of an EV future.

It's very common in canada to have plugs available for block heaters, there was another study that showed canada was one of the most prepared countries (in the western hemisphere) for EV.

Outlets in garages, streets and parking lots are less common in the USA. My next car will be EV, but I'm not delusional about it. my driving habits will have to change (even more so if I purchased a leaf).

 

I hate to rain on disneys eeyore parade, but cheer up. Does GM make Vetts because 1 in 25 look at one? Do 1 in 25 buy harlies? ... dualie pickups, etc? Well there you go!

There are literally dozens & dozens of aftermarket PHEV conversion shops scattered around the country now. Why? Because the big manufacturers haven't had the cajones to offer up what people want. Does it mean anything modernly, that 110 years ago, most people wouldn't want to buy ANY car? Ok then, we can move on.


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There is a faux expectation that when when the charging stations are available, the charging or electricity will be free. This is not going to happen. It may be free for the first 6 month to a year and then you will be charged 2-3 times the rate.

 

There are certain places (like NYC)that if you are not a utility you can't charge for electricity. The way around that would be to charge you for the time that you are there (parked & charging).

 

Maybe YOU will be charged 3x the rate ... others here have a plan~





The up front certainly wasn't free . . . but these puppies will have paid for their selves in about 5 more years. . . . Woot!

Got surplus ?

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May you be able to carry all this panels on the roof of your Prius or other Hybrid.